scholarly journals A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonam S. Dash ◽  
Dipaka R. Sena ◽  
Uday Mandal ◽  
Anil Kumar ◽  
Gopal Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Critical Zones

Abstract The hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km2), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q90) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change on Streamflows Upstream of Khanpur Dam, Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saima Nauman ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Abdul Halim Bin Ghazali ◽  
Badronnisa Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Minimum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

The study aims to evaluate the long-term changes in meteorological parameters and to quantify their impacts on water resources of the Haro River watershed located on the upstream side of Khanpur Dam in Pakistan. The climate data was obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) for MIROC-ESM model under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The model data was bias corrected and the performance of the bias correction was assessed statistically. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used for the hydrological simulation of watershed followed by model calibration using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version-2. The study is useful for devising strategies for future management of Khanpur Dam. The study indicated that in the future, at Murree station (P-1), the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were anticipated to increase from 3.1 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.0 °C (RCP 8.5), 3.2 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.3 °C (RCP 8.5) and 8.6% to 13.5% respectively, in comparison to the baseline period. Similarly, at Islamabad station (P-2), the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were projected to increase from 3.3 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.1 °C (RCP 8.5), 3.3 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.2 °C (RCP 8.5) and 14.0% to 21.2% respectively compared to baseline period. The streamflows at Haro River basin were expected to rise from 8.7 m3/s to 9.3 m3/s.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Climate Change on Streamflow, Sediment, and Nutrient Load at Watershed Scale

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 165
Author(s):  
Prem B. Parajuli ◽  
Avay Risal
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Monthly Average ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Monthly Streamflow

This study evaluated changes in climatic variable impacts on hydrology and water quality in Big Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW), Mississippi. Site-specific future time-series precipitation, temperature, and solar radiation data were generated using a stochastic weather generator LARS-WG model. For the generation of climate scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5 of Global Circulation Models (GCMs): Hadley Center Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) and EC-EARTH, for three (2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) future climate periods. Analysis of future climate data based on six ground weather stations located within BSRW showed that the minimum temperature ranged from 11.9 °C to 15.9 °C and the maximum temperature ranged from 23.2 °C to 28.3 °C. Similarly, the average daily rainfall ranged from 3.6 mm to 4.3 mm. Analysis of changes in monthly average maximum/minimum temperature showed that January had the maximum increment and July/August had a minimum increment in monthly average temperature. Similarly, maximum increase in monthly average rainfall was observed during May and maximum decrease was observed during September. The average monthly streamflow, sediment, TN, and TP loads under different climate scenarios varied significantly. The change in average TN and TP loads due to climate change were observed to be very high compared to the change in streamflow and sediment load. The monthly average nutrient load under two different RCP scenarios varied greatly from as low as 63% to as high as 184%, compared to the current monthly nutrient load. The change in hydrology and water quality was mainly attributed to changes in surface temperature, precipitation, and stream flow. This study can be useful in the development and implementation of climate change smart management of agricultural watersheds.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change Scenarios on Non-Point Source Pollution in the Saemangeum Watershed, South Korea

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Li ◽  
Gwangseob Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Point Source ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Pollutant Loads ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5

Non-point source (NPS) pollution is a primary cause of water pollution in the Saemangeum watershed in South Korea. The changes in NPS pollutant loads in the Saemangeum watershed for an 81-year period (2019–2099) were simulated and analyzed by applying the soil and water assessment tool. Six climate model (BCC-CSM1–1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2G, HadGEM2-CC, INM-CM4, and MIROC-ESM) outputs using representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were obtained from the South Korean Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Climate Center. Simulated streamflow and water quality were evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) index and coefficient of determination (R2). The model satisfactorily simulated streamflow with positive NSE values and R2 > 0.5. Based on two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), gradual increases of 70.9 to 233.8 mm and 1.7 to 5.7 °C in annual precipitation and temperature, respectively, are likely for two time periods (2019–2059 and 2060–2099). Additionally, the expected future average annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and total phosphorus showed changes of 5% to 43%, 3% to 40%, and −55% to 15%, respectively, whereas the expected future average annual and monthly total nitrogen showed decreases of −5% to −27%. Future NPS pollutant loads in the Saemangeum watershed should be managed according to different climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Appraisal of Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources of Pakistan: A Case Study of Mangla Watershed

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1071
Author(s):  
Haroon Haider ◽  
Muhammad Zaman ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Muhammad Saifullah ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Water Assessment

Water resources are highly dependent on climatic variations. The quantification of climate change impacts on surface water availability is critical for agriculture production and flood management. The current study focuses on the projected streamflow variations in the transboundary Mangla Dam watershed. Precipitation and temperature changes combined with future water assessment in the watershed are projected by applying multiple downscaling techniques for three periods (2021–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). Streamflows are simulated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the outputs of five global circulation models (GCMs) and their ensembles under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Spatial and temporal changes in defined future flow indexes, such as base streamflow, average flow, and high streamflow have been investigated in this study. Results depicted an overall increase in average annual flows under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 up until 2099. The maximum values of low flow, median flow, and high flows under RCP 4.5 were found to be 55.96 m3/s, 856.94 m3/s, and 7506.2 m3/s and under RCP 8.5, 63.29 m3/s, 945.26 m3/s, 7569.8 m3/s, respectively, for these ensembles GCMs till 2099. Under RCP 4.5, the maximum increases in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), precipitation (Pr), and average annual streamflow were estimated as 5.3 °C, 2.0 °C, 128.4%, and 155.52%, respectively, up until 2099. In the case of RCP 8.5, the maximum increase in these hydro-metrological variables was up to 8.9 °C, 8.2 °C, 180.3%, and 181.56%, respectively, up until 2099. The increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs under RCP 4.5 were found to be 1.95 °C, 1.68 °C and 93.28% (2021–2039), 1.84 °C, 1.34 °C, and 75.88%(2040–2069), 1.57 °C, 1.27 °C and 72.7% (2070–2099), respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the projected increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs were found as 2.26 °C, 2.23 °C and 78.65% (2021–2039), 2.73 °C, 2.53 °C, and 83.79% (2040–2069), 2.80 °C, 2.63 °C and 67.89% (2070–2099), respectively. Three seasons (spring, winter, and autumn) showed a remarkable increase in streamflow, while the summer season showed a decrease in inflows. Based on modeling results, it is expected that the Mangla Watershed will experience more frequent extreme flow events in the future, due to climate change. These results indicate that the study of climate change’s impact on the water resources under a suitable downscaling technique is imperative for proper planning and management of the water resources.

scholarly journals Mapping Invasion Potential of the Pest from Central Asia, Trypophloeus klimeschi (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae), in the Shelter Forests of Northwest China

Insects ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 242
Author(s):  
Hang Ning ◽  
Ming Tang ◽  
Hui Chen
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Northwest China ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Northern Edge ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
Suitable Area ◽  
The Impact

Temperature and precipitation are the two main factors constraining the current distribution of Trypophloeus klimeschi. Currently, T. klimeschi is mainly distributed in South Xinjiang, where it occurs between the southern edge of the Tianshan Mountains and northern edge of the Tarim Basin. In addition, Dunhuang in northern Gansu also provide suitable habitats for this bark beetle. Two other potential areas for this species are in or near the cities of Alaer and Korla. Under future climate scenarios, its total suitable area is projected to increase markedly over time. Among the climate scenarios, the distribution expanded the most under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5). Jiuquan in Gansu is projected to become a suitable area in the 2030s. Subsequently, T. klimeschi is expected to enter western Inner Mongolia along the Hexi Corridor in the 2050s. In southeastern Xinjiang, however, the suitable area in northern Ruoqiang and most areas of Korla may decrease. By the 2050s, it is large enough to pose substantial challenges for forest managers across northern China. Our findings provide information that can be used to monitor T. klimeschi populations, host health, and the impact of climate change, shedding light on the effectiveness of management responses.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-497
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
First Century ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Projections of runoff in the Vistula and the Odra river basins with the help of the SWAT model

2017 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-317 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikołaj Piniewski ◽  
Mateusz Szcześniak ◽  
Shaochun Huang ◽  
Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Odra River ◽  
Assess Climate Change ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Model Set ◽  
Seasonal Runoff ◽  
Set Up

Abstract The objective of this paper is to assess climate change impacts on spatiotemporal changes in annual and seasonal runoff and its components in the basins of two large European rivers, the Vistula and the Odra, for future horizons. This study makes use of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, set up at high resolution, and driven by a multi-model ensemble (MME) of nine bias-corrected EURO-CORDEX simulations under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5. This paper presents a wealth of illustrative material referring to the annual and seasonal runoff (R) in the reference period as well as projections for the future (MME mean change), with explicit illustration of the multi-model spread based on the agreement between models and statistical significance of change according to each model. Annual R increases are dominating, regardless of RCP and future horizon. The magnitude of the MME mean of spatially averaged increase varies between 15.8% (RCP 4.5, near future) and 41.6% (RCP 8.5, far future). The seasonal patterns show the highest increase in winter and the lowest in spring, whereas the spatial patterns show the highest increase in the inner, lowland part, and the lowest in the southern mountainous part of the basin.

scholarly journals Joint Occurrence of Daily Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events over Canada

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (9) ◽  
pp. 2148-2162 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bárbara Tencer ◽  
Andrew Weaver ◽  
Francis Zwiers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Minimum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Joint Occurrence

AbstractThe occurrence of individual extremes such as temperature and precipitation extremes can have a great impact on the environment. Agriculture, energy demands, and human health, among other activities, can be affected by extremely high or low temperatures and by extremely dry or wet conditions. The simultaneous or proximate occurrence of both types of extremes could lead to even more profound consequences, however. For example, a dry period can have more negative consequences on agriculture if it is concomitant with or followed by a period of extremely high temperatures. This study analyzes the joint occurrence of very wet conditions and high/low temperature events at stations in Canada. More than one-half of the stations showed a significant positive relationship at the daily time scale between warm nights (daily minimum temperature greater than the 90th percentile) or warm days (daily maximum temperature above the 90th percentile) and heavy-precipitation events (daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile), with the greater frequencies found for the east and southwest coasts during autumn and winter. Cold days (daily maximum temperature below the 10th percentile) occur together with intense precipitation more frequently during spring and summer. Simulations by regional climate models show good agreement with observations in the seasonal and spatial variability of the joint distribution, especially when an ensemble of simulations was used.

scholarly journals Bayesian spatial and spatio-temporal approaches to modelling dengue fever: a systematic review

2018 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Aswi ◽  
S. M. Cramb ◽  
P. Moraga ◽  
K. Mengersen
Keyword(s):  
Dengue Fever ◽  
Random Effects ◽  
Mixed Model ◽  
Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Random Effect ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Generalised Linear Mixed Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal

AbstractDengue fever (DF) is one of the world's most disabling mosquito-borne diseases, with a variety of approaches available to model its spatial and temporal dynamics. This paper aims to identify and compare the different spatial and spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling methods that have been applied to DF and examine influential covariates that have been reportedly associated with the risk of DF. A systematic search was performed in December 2017, using Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, PubMed, ProQuest and Medline (via Ebscohost) electronic databases. The search was restricted to refereed journal articles published in English from January 2000 to November 2017. Thirty-one articles met the inclusion criteria. Using a modified quality assessment tool, the median quality score across studies was 14/16. The most popular Bayesian statistical approach to dengue modelling was a generalised linear mixed model with spatial random effects described by a conditional autoregressive prior. A limited number of studies included spatio-temporal random effects. Temperature and precipitation were shown to often influence the risk of dengue. Developing spatio-temporal random-effect models, considering other priors, using a dataset that covers an extended time period, and investigating other covariates would help to better understand and control DF transmission.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability and Food Security of Nepal

2012 ◽  
pp. 59-63
Author(s):  
Roshan Kumar Mehta ◽  
Shree Chandra Shah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Groundwater Table ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Aquatic Life ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Water Scarce

The increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere is widely believed to be causing climate change. It affects agriculture, forestry, human health, biodiversity, and snow cover and aquatic life. Changes in climatic factors like temperature, solar radiation and precipitation have potential to influence agrobiodiversity and its production. An average of 0.04°C/ year and 0.82 mm/year rise in annual average maximum temperature and precipitation respectively from 1975 to 2006 has been recorded in Nepal. Frequent droughts, rise in temperature, shortening of the monsoon season with high intensity rainfall, severe floods, landslides and mixed effects on agricultural biodiversity have been experienced in Nepal due to climatic changes. A survey done in the Chitwan District reveals that lowering of the groundwater table decreases production and that farmers are attracted to grow less water consuming crops during water scarce season. The groundwater table in the study area has lowered nearly one meter from that of 15 years ago as experienced by the farmers. Traditional varieties of rice have been replaced in the last 10 years by modern varieties, and by agricultural crops which demand more water for cultivation. The application of groundwater for irrigation has increased the cost of production and caused severe negative impacts on marginal crop production and agro-biodiversity. It is timely that suitable adaptive measures are identified in order to make Nepalese agriculture more resistant to the adverse impacts of climate change, especially those caused by erratic weather patterns such as the ones experienced recently.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7206 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.59-63

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