scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic News on Chinese Futures

2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu ◽  
Yang ◽  
Ruan
Keyword(s):  
Return Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic News ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Inspired by the GARCH-MIDAS model, we revisit the relationship between Chinese futures and macroeconomic factors. We introduce the level of the macroeconomic variables into the GARCH-MIDAS model in order to test the impact of the macroeconomic level on the variance of futures’ return volatility. Based on the empirical results, we find the level of macroeconomic variables has a significant impact on the volatility of Chinese futures’ return. The influence of the macroeconomic level factor on the futures’ return volatility is statistically significant.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Factors and Equity Prices: An Empirical Investigation by Using ARDL Approach

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (4II) ◽  
pp. 501-513 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arshad Hasan ◽  
Zafar Mueen Nasir
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Equity Prices ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between macroeconomic variables and the equity prices has attracted the curiosity of academicians and practitioners since the publication of seminal paper of Chen, et al. (1986). Many empirical studies those tested the relationship reveal that asset pricing theories do not properly identify macroeconomic factors that influence equity prices [Roll and Ross (1980); Fama (1981); Chen, et al. (1986); Hamao (1986); Faff (1988); Chen (1991); Maysami and Koh (2000) and Paul and Mallik (2001)]. In most of these studies, variable selection and empirical analyses is based on economic rationale, financial theory and investors’ intuition. These studies generally apply Eagle and Granger (1987) procedure or Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) approach in Vector Auto Regressor (VAR) Framework. In Pakistan, Fazal (2006) and Nishat (2001) explored the relationship between macroeconomic factors and equity prices by using Johanson and Jusilieus (1990, 1991) procedure. The present study tests the relationship between macroeconomic variables such as inflation, industrial production, oil prices, short term interest rate, exchange rates, foreign portfolio investment, money supply and equity prices by using Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bounds testing procedure proposed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1996, 2001). The ARDL approach in an errorcorrection setting has been widely applied to examine the impact of macroeconomic factors on economic growth but it is strongly underutilised in the capital market filament of literature. This methodology has a number of advantages over the other models. First, determining the order of integration of macroeconomic factors and equity market returns is not an important issue here because the Pesaran ARDL approach yields consistent estimates of the long-run coefficients that are asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(0) or I(1) and of the extent of cointegration. Secondly, the ARDL approach allows exploring correct dynamic structure while many econometric procedures do not allow to clearly distinguish between long run and short run relationships.

scholarly journals Conventional REITs, Islamic REITs and macroeconomic variables in Malaysia: a review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Edil Abd Sukor ◽  
Zahida Abu Sujak ◽  
Kamaruzaman Noordin
Keyword(s):  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Business Decisions ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Asset Size ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Conventional Counterpart

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically examine the return and dividend characteristics of two different types of Malaysian real estate investment trust (REIT) series, namely, conventional and Islamic, against macroeconomic variables over the period 2011-2017. Design/methodology/approach The required data are derived from Datastream database. Multiple regression analysis is used to determine the impact of macroeconomic variables on financial performance of 13 Malaysian REIT series. Findings Results show that the macroeconomic variables are able to predict future returns and dividends of Malaysian REITs. The analysis also suggests that Islamic REITs are seen to be less sensitive to macroeconomic variables and display better portfolio diversification benefits as compared to their conventional counterpart. The ongoing implications for large-cap and small-cap REITs are also highlighted. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of the study is the small percentage of Islamic REITs sample due to limited period of observation available. However, the two Islamic REITs included are representative of Islamic REITs in Malaysia as both of them are listed in the Bursa Malaysia with asset size and market capitalization values more than RM1bn. Practical implications The results of this study may serve as a useful input for financial market players on making strategic business decisions especially with regards to differences between conventional and Islamic REITs characteristics. Originality/value The main contribution of this paper is to explore the relationship between REITs and macroeconomic factors on a unique capital market (Malaysia) that allows comparison between conventional and its Islamic counterpart.

Testing Structural Break in the Relationship Between Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Variables

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 442-453 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saidia Jeelani ◽  
Joity Tomar ◽  
Tapas Das ◽  
Seshanwita Das
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Ripple Effect ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Parameter Instability ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The article aims to study the relationship between those macroeconomic factors that the affect (INR/USD) exchange rate (ER). Time series data of 40 years on ER, GDP, inflation, interest rate (IR), FDI, money supply, trade balance (TB) and terms of trade (ToT) have been collected from the RBI website. The considered model has suggested that only inflation, TB and ToT have influenced the ER significantly during the study period. Other macroeconomic variables such as GDP, FDI and IR have not significantly influenced the ER during the study period. The model is robust and does not suffer from residual heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and non-normality. Sometimes the relationship between ER and macroeconomic variables gets affected by major economic events. For example, the Southeast Asian crisis caused by currency depreciation in 1997 and sub-prime loan crisis of 2008 severely strained the national economies. Any global economic turmoil will affect different economic variables through ripple effect and this, in turn, will affect the ER of different economies differently. The article has also diagnosed whether there is any structural break or not in the model by applying Chow’s Breakpoint Test and have obtained multiple breaks between 2003 and 2009. The existence of structural breaks during 2003–2009 is explained by the fact that volume of crude oil imported by India is high and oil price rise led to a deficit in the TB alarmingly, which caused a structural break or parameter instability.

The Impact of Economic Sentiment, Consumer, Producer and Investor's Confidence Indices on Stock Returns of the Listed Companies in FTSE-20 in Greece

2018 ◽  
pp. 162-209
Author(s):  
Constantine Cantzos ◽  
Petros Kalantonis ◽  
Aristidis Papagrigoriou ◽  
Stefanos Theotokas
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Production Index ◽  
Behavioral Indicators ◽  
Portfolio Returns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This chapter examines the relationship between stock returns of companies listed in the FTSE-20 on the Athens Exchange and behavioral indicators. The research is based on the behavioral APT model, which examines stock returns' risk factors through the involvement of macroeconomic variables and behavioral indicators. The data is the closing price of 17 shares listed in the FTSE-20 index, a number of macroeconomic variables, and a series of behavioral indicators for the period of January 2001-December 2014. Regressions were conducted with dependent variable stock returns of a portfolio invested equally in these 17 stocks. In addition, the research tests the existence of long-run and short-run equilibrium and causality. The change in the industrial production index along with the risk premium have a positive and significant impact on the portfolio returns. Johansen's test showed that there is a long-run equilibrium between stock returns, macroeconomic variables, and behavioral indicators. The VECM and VAR models showed that there is not long and short-run causality, not even Granger causality. No similar research has been conducted in Greece, thus it fills a literature gap.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Indices Performances in Indian Stock Market

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.36) ◽  
pp. 592
Author(s):  
D. Kinslin ◽  
V. P. Velmurugan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Money Markets ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Financing Costs ◽  
Indian Stock Market ◽  
The Relationship

This investigation endeavors in observationally testing the connection between macroeconomic variables and the exhibitions of two noteworthy Indian security advertise lists of BSE-sensex and NSE-clever. The yearly information of a few macroeconomic elements of FIIs net venture, trade rates, oil value, financing costs, swelling rates and gold rates from 1995-96 to 2014-15 are thought about and it attempts to uncover the most impact of these elements on the 'Stock files exhibitions' of the Indian securities exchange. In compatibility of this, the connection investigation and various relapse examination was utilized to contemplate the connection between the two chose security advertise files exhibitions and the six chose macroeconomic elements from the Indian economy. The significant finding is that macroeconomic elements impact securities exchange lists exhibitions in India. It is suggested that the usage of appropriate monetary approaches will be useful to money markets files and it will result in required development in the Indian capital market.   

scholarly journals The relationship between debt and a firm’s performance: the impact of institutional factors

2019 ◽  
Vol 45 (9) ◽  
pp. 1272-1291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosa Forte ◽  
José Miguel Tavares
Keyword(s):  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Institutional Framework ◽  
Market Regulation ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the existing literature on the relationship between debt and firms’ performance, by focusing on the influence of the institutional framework on this relationship and on the role of macroeconomic variables in explaining performance. Design/methodology/approach The present work is based on a large sample of 48,840 manufacturing firms from nine European countries covering the 2008–2013 period and uses a fixed effects model. Findings Results show that the impact of debt on a firm’s performance depends on the measure of debt (short-term debt positively affects a firm’s performance, whereas long-term debt presents a negative relationship) and that the institutional framework is indeed affecting the relationship between debt and a firm’s performance: the positive effect of debt on a firm’s performance tends to be higher the greater the “efficiency of the legal system” and the greater the “credit market regulation.” Macroeconomic variables also play a key role in explaining performance. Originality/value Unlike most of the existing studies, which focus only on the relationship between debt and firms’ performance in a single country, the present work uses a sample of firms from nine countries with the purpose of filling a research gap and bringing new empirical evidence to this research area.

scholarly journals Corruption and satisfaction with democracy: the conditional role of electoral disproportionality and ballot control

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 393-416 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Pellegata ◽  
Vincenzo Memoli
Keyword(s):  
Electoral Systems ◽  
Aggregate Level ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
Satisfaction With Democracy ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels

Existing literature has analysed the relationship between electoral systems and either corruption or satisfaction with democracy (SWD) focussing on the traditional distinction between majoritarian and proportional systems. This paper, instead, investigates if and how specific aspects of electoral systems moderate the negative effects of corruption perceptions on SWD. We argue that two mechanisms act simultaneously but at different levels. The first mechanism is the relationship between voters and the national government, while the second links single representatives to their constituents. We advance conditional hypotheses that postulate an attenuating effect of disproportionality and a reinforcing impact of personal vote. Empirical results from 35 elections in 33 democracies, using both individual and aggregate-level data, confirm the research hypotheses. More disproportional electoral systems weaken the impact of citizens’ perceived corruption on their democratic satisfaction, while this is strengthened by systems in which the ballot control is mostly in the hand of the voters.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Factors on Banking Profitabilty

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 44
Author(s):  
Lutfullah Lutf ◽  
Hafizullah Omarkhil
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Comparative Performance ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study comparatively focuses on the impact of macroeconomic determinants and the internal indicators on bank performance. It comparatively evaluates the differential effects of macroeconomic variables and bank specific variables. Thus, considering five-five banks from each system, a comparative performance investigation between conventional & Islamic banks is the aim of this paper. To determine the short-run and long-run impact of these factors, co-integration & general to specific approach are adopted. This study also considers bank specific and macroeconomic variables in two separate models (Return on Assets and Return on Equity). Our objective is to find whether or not Islamic banks are performing well in the country as compared to their conventional counterparts. The results indicate that in the long run, Gross Domestic Product, and inflation, is positively related to performance, while Interest rate has no effect on the performance of banking sector in Pakistan. Similarly, bank size, capital adequacy, expenses, interest income and non-interest income are the bank related factors that significantly influence the performance of financial sector.

scholarly journals Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from Sub-Sahara Africa

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Ifeanyichukwu Ali ◽  
Samuel M. Nzotta ◽  
A. B. C. Akujuobi ◽  
Chilaka E. Nwaimo
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Market Return ◽  
Stock Market Return ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
The Impact

The main purpose of this paper was to investigate the impact of macroeconomic variables on stock market return volatility in Sub-Sahara markets. The study concentrated on three stock markets including Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa using GARCH-X (1,1) model on monthly data from January 2000 to December 2017. Preliminary analyses from descriptive statistics show that show mean monthly returns are positive for all the stock markets. Skewness coefficients show that the stock returns and interest rates distribution of all Sub-Sahara Africa stock markets are negatively skewed but inflation rate is positively skewed for Nigeria and South Africa, and flat for Ghana. Excess kurtoses are positive for all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators, and Jarque-Bera statistics indicate the stock markets’ series and macroeconomic indicators are not normally distributed. The Unit roots tests results indicate that all the stock markets and macroeconomic indicators are first difference stationary. The results of the GARCH-X (1,1) model show that macroeconomic variables do not significantly impact stock market returns volatility in Nigeria, Ghana and South Africa at the 5% significance Level. We therefore recommend that stock market regulators, market participants and investors should concentrate more efforts on other macroeconomic variables aside interest rate and inflation rate, in estimating stock market return volatility in Sub-Sahara Africa.

scholarly journals Impact of credit risk (NPLs) and capital on liquidity risk of Malaysian banks

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaman Hajja
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Liquidity Risk ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

We investigate the relationship between bank liquidity risk and credit risk and the impact of bank capital on liquidity risk. Using 19 Malaysian commercial banks data over 2002-2011 and applying dynamic panel data GMM estimation after controlling for bank-specific and macroeconomic variables, empirical results document a positive relationship between liquidity and credit risk and a non-linear U-shaped relationship between bank capital and liquidity risk.

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