THE NONLINEAR ASYMMETRIC RELATIONSHIP AMONG IMPLIED VOLATILITY INDICES OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET, GOLD, AND OIL: EVIDENCE FROM NARDL MODEL

The paper aims to examine the nonlinear asymmetric relationship among the implied volatility indices of the Indian stock market, gold, and oil for the period from 2nd March 2009 to 29th October 2021. Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model results provide evidence of asymmetric nonlinear relationship among the selected variables in the short-run and the long-run. The positive and negative shocks to gold and oil implied volatility indices have a positive and significant influence on the implied volatility of the Indian stock market. The expected volatility of gold has a short-term symmetric impact on expected stock market volatility in the short run. Whereas, the implied volatility of oil has a long-run asymmetric impact on the implied volatility of the stock market. Increasing volatility in oil prices can be viewed as a signal for the starting point for the volatility of the Indian stock markets. In the long run, positive shocks to gold volatility have more impact on the expected volatility of the Indian stock market than the negative. This indicates that investors are shifting their investments from gold to stocks for higher returns when the gold prices are fluctuating.

Searching for hedging and safe haven assets for Indian equity market – a comparison between gold, cryptocurrency and commodities

Purpose This paper aims to evaluate the hedging and safe haven properties of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities against the Indian equity market. Design/methodology/approach First, the authors estimate the hedging and safe haven abilities of gold, cryptocurrency and commodities for the Indian stock market and further verify whether such properties vary across the broad stock market indices and over the different degrees of market volatility. Second, the authors use the multivariate GARCH framework to calculate the dynamic hedge ratios and hedging efficiencies to compare the hedging properties of the alternative asset classes. Third, the authors verify the robustness of the general findings during the recent crisis emanating from the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings Gold, cryptocurrency and most commodities have significant hedging abilities. Only natural gas, crude oil and aluminum, on the other hand, have safe haven property. Neither gold nor cryptocurrency qualifies as a safe haven asset. On the other hand, the financialization of the Indian commodities market provides a significant dividend to investors in terms of hedging and safe haven capabilities. The authors find the least negative hedge ratio and the highest positive hedging effectiveness for the stock-crude oil and stock-natural gas portfolios. The central observations of the paper remain immune to the COVID crisis. Originality/value Focusing on the Indian equity market, the paper compares the diversification abilities of traditional assets like gold with those of the modern class of assets, including cryptocurrency and other commodities.

Predicting Stock Market Price Using Neural Network Model

The present article predicts the movement of daily Indian stock market (S&P CNX Nifty) price by using Feedforward Neural Network Model over a period of eight years from January 1st 2008 to April 8th 2016. The prediction accuracy of the model is accessed by normalized mean square error (NMSE) and sign correctness percentage (SCP) measure. The study indicates that the predicted output is very close to actual data since the normalized error of one-day lag is 0.02. The analysis further shows that 60 percent accuracy found in the prediction of the direction of daily movement of Indian stock market price after the financial crises period 2008. The study indicates that the predictive power of the feedforward neural network models reasonably influenced by one-day lag stock market price. Hence, the validity of an efficient market hypothesis does not hold in practice in the Indian stock market. This article is quite useful to the investors, professional traders and regulators for understanding the effectiveness of Indian stock market to take appropriate investment decision in the stock market.

Examining the association between stock return and seasonally adjusted trade in India

This paper aims to examine the association between Indian stock market return and seasonally adjusted trade for Indian Banking sector shares. The objective of the study is to measure the association between stock return and seasonally adjusted trade in the Indian stock market and recommend strategies. Due to the Covid 19 outbreak banking sector was highly affected, the Government of India also announced a moratorium on all categories of loans, banking business majorly depending on the deposit and loan creation, so the Government decision threaten the banking sector. Many private sector banks terminated temporary staff because of cut cost policies. We divided the banking sector into three segments. Namely, Public, Private and Small Finance Banks. Utilizing daily data from February 2020 to July 2020, consisting of 2196 in numbers, we ran a panel Vector Autoregression model to analyze the association. It was found that the return of stocks is influencing the volume of trade during this period. Also, while measuring the short-run causality, it is found that the return of banking stocks specifically granger causes the volume of trade. The suggestions of the study lie in providing importance to framing policies on improving the financial health of the economy through different fiscal policies. Strategic policies are required to face post-Covid situations. The turnaround strategies to combat the effects of the pandemic are characterized by the availability of the sustainable resources of the particular sector in consideration.

A STUDY ON DOMESTIC INSTITUTIONAL INVESTMENTS AND ITS IMPACT ON MEJOR SECTORS OF ECONOMY

India is a developing economy, which has undergone a series of developmental events in last two years. Covid -19 Pandemic has created a lot of challenges across various sectors of the economy. Major sectors of the economy has underwent a series of changes during this phase. IT industries adopted work from home as a long-term cost cutting strategy bringing in necessary changes in work culture. The government has also made all the possible efforts to keep up the phase of development in spite of the challenges posed by the pandemic. Pandemic gave a new dimension to the Indian stock market as many DII & FII became active leading to the further growth of the market in spite of the pandemic.The paper attempts to identify Impact of DIII in the Indian Stock Market. An attempt is made to study the relationship between Selected Nifty Indices movements, DII Inflow/Outflow, by evaluating their investments in equity, Debt and Future& Options segments by applying Statistical Tools. Thus,overall impact of these Players on the Stock Market & Economy is studied. Paper concludes suggesting the measures to identify the major players and empower them as it is necessary tobuild future developing India.