scholarly journals Climate Aridity and the Geographical Shift of Olive Trees in a Mediterranean Northern Region

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 64
Author(s):  
Jesús Rodrigo-Comino ◽  
Rosanna Salvia ◽  
Giovanni Quaranta ◽  
Pavel Cudlín ◽  
Luca Salvati ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Surface Area ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Local Warming

Climate change leverages landscape transformations and exerts variable pressure on natural environments and rural systems. Earlier studies outlined how Mediterranean Europe has become a global hotspot of climate warming and land use change. The present work assumes the olive tree, a typical Mediterranean crop, as a candidate bioclimatic indicator, delineating the latent impact of climate aridity on traditional cropping systems at the northern range of the biogeographical distribution of the olive tree. Since the olive tree follows a well-defined latitude gradient with a progressive decline in both frequency and density moving toward the north, we considered Italy as an appropriate case to investigate how climate change may (directly or indirectly) influence the spatial distribution of this crop. By adopting an exploratory approach grounded in the quali-quantitative analysis of official statistics, the present study investigates long-term changes over time in the spatial distribution of the olive tree surface area in Northern Italy, a region traditionally considered outside the ecological range of the species because of unsuitable climate conditions. Olive tree cultivated areas increased in Northern Italy, especially in flat districts and upland areas, while they decreased in Central and Southern Italy under optimal climate conditions, mostly because of land abandonment. The most intense expansion of the olive tree surface area in Italy was observed in the northern region between 1992 and 2000 and corresponded with the intensification of winter droughts during the late 1980s and the early 1990s and local warming since the mid-1980s. Assuming the intrinsic role of farmers in the expansion of the olive tree into the suboptimal land of Northern Italy, the empirical results of our study suggest how climate aridity and local warming may underlie the shift toward the north in the geographical range of the olive tree in the Mediterranean Basin. We finally discussed the implications of the olive range shift as a part of a possible landscape scenario for a more arid future.

scholarly journals Moving toward the north? The spatial shift of olive groves in Italy

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (No. 4) ◽  
pp. 129-135
Author(s):  
Filippo Gambella ◽  
Leonardo Bianchini ◽  
Massimo Cecchini ◽  
Gianluca Egidi ◽  
Agostino Ferrara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Olive Tree ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Tree Distribution ◽  
The North ◽  
Spatial Shift ◽  
Olive Groves ◽  
Local Warming ◽  
Olive Trees

Southern Europe is becoming a hotspot for climate change. Appropriate mechanisation is necessary for reducing soil compacting in such contexts. The olive tree distribution – a typical Mediterranean crop – showed a well-defined latitude gradient with progressive decline moving towards the north. Climate change, however, has supposed to cause a significant shift towards the north in the geographical range of olive trees. Our study analyses the spatial distribution of the olive tree area in Italy, a region within the species' ecological range apart from the Northern region, which is now becoming progressively specialised in this crop because of local warming. Results indicate that olive cultivated area increased in Northern Italy, especially in flat districts and upland areas, while decreasing (more or less rapidly) in central and southern Italy because of land abandonment.

scholarly journals Modelling the evolution of Djankuat Glacier, North Caucasus, from 1752 until 2100 CE

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (11) ◽  
pp. 4039-4061
Author(s):  
Yoni Verhaegen ◽  
Philippe Huybrechts ◽  
Oleg Rybak ◽  
Victor V. Popovnin
Keyword(s):  
Surface Area ◽  
Flow Line ◽  
Calibration Procedure ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
North Caucasus ◽  
Initial State ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Debris Cover

Abstract. We use a numerical flow line model to simulate the behaviour of the Djankuat Glacier, a World Glacier Monitoring Service reference glacier situated in the North Caucasus (Republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, Russian Federation), in response to past, present and future climate conditions (1752–2100 CE). The model consists of a coupled ice flow–mass balance model that also takes into account the evolution of a supraglacial debris cover. After simulation of the past retreat by applying a dynamic calibration procedure, the model was forced with data for the future period under different scenarios regarding temperature, precipitation and debris input. The main results show that the glacier length and surface area have decreased by ca. 1.4 km (ca. −29.5 %) and ca. 1.6 km2 (−35.2 %) respectively between the initial state in 1752 CE and present-day conditions. Some minor stabilization and/or readvancements of the glacier have occurred, but the general trend shows an almost continuous retreat since the 1850s. Future projections using CMIP5 temperature and precipitation data exhibit a further decline of the glacier. Under constant present-day climate conditions, its length and surface area will further shrink by ca. 30 % by 2100 CE. However, even under the most extreme RCP 8.5 scenario, the glacier will not have disappeared completely by the end of the modelling period. The presence of an increasingly widespread supraglacial debris cover is shown to significantly delay glacier retreat, depending on the interaction between the prevailing climatic conditions, the debris input location, the debris mass flux magnitude and the time of release of debris sources from the surrounding topography.

scholarly journals Análise espaço-temporal do eucalipto no Norte de Minas Gerais nos anos de 1986, 1996 e 2010

GeoTextos ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Esdras Leite ◽  
Jefferson Willian Lopes Almeida ◽  
Renato Ferreira da Silva
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Temporal Analysis ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Important Variable ◽  
Land Acquisition ◽  
The North ◽  
Medium Resolution ◽  
Northern State ◽  
Spatial Temporal Analysis

A mesorregião do Norte de Minas Gerais apresenta-se como uma das áreas de menor valor comercial da terra no estado, juntamente com o Vale do Jequitinhonha. Com isso, a aquisição da terra para a implantação de projetos de silvicultura, especificamente o eucalipto, foi facilitada. O eucalipto demanda grandes áreas, por isso o preço da terra é uma variável importante para o sucesso econômico do empreendimento. Nesse contexto, este artigo analisou a distribuição espacial desse tipo de cultivo no norte do estado de Minas Gerais, nos anos de 1986, 1996 e 2010. Para isso, foram usados produtos orbitais de média resolução para extrair as áreas de eucalipto. Esses dados foram sobrepostos, através do SIG, a outras características dessa região. Com isso, foi possível identificar a dinâmica dessa silvicultura que, de acordo com os resultados, vem reduzindo a área ocupada no norte de Minas Gerias. Abstract SPATIAL-TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF EUCALYPTUS IN THE NORTH OF MINAS GERAIS IN THE YEARS 1986, 1996 AND 2010 The northern region of Minas Gerais presents itself as an area of lower commercial value of the land in the state. Thus, land acquisition for the implementation of forestry projects, especially eucalyptus, was facilitated. Eucalyptus demand large areas, so the price of land is an important variable for the economic success of the enterprise. In this context, this paper analyzed the spatial distribution of such cultivation in the northern state of Minas Gerais, in the years 1986, 1996 and 2010. Thus, we used medium-resolution orbital products to extract the areas of eucalyptus. These data were overlaid through GIS, other characteristics of this region. Thus, it was possible to identify the dynamics of this forest, which, according to the results, has been reducing the area occupied in the north of Minas Gerais.

scholarly journals Assessment of spatial distributions of some climate indices in Iraq

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanan S. Al-Zamili ◽  
Alaa M. Al-Lami
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Climate Indices ◽  
Spatial Distributions ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Distance Weighting ◽  
Aridity Indices ◽  
Second Period ◽  
Inverse Distance ◽  
Semi Arid

Aridity is one of the main factors which distinguish the climate of a region and has significant influence on human activities. This study investigated the spatial distribution of the aridity indices to determine the climate conditions in Iraq over the period (1981-2015), depending on the data of the air temperature and rainfall which obtained from 28 stations distributed through Iraq. The used aridity indices are: Lang, Erinc, Emberger, UNEP, De Martonne and Thornthwaite. The spatial distribution was determined using inverse distance weighting (IDW) interpolated method. The results of aridity indices analysis shows that the hyper-arid, arid, and semi-arid categories are predominant with almost (91%) to (100%) of the country’s area. Dry sub-humid, moist sub-humid and humid categories occupies less than (10%) with most of indices at stations of (Arbil, Sulaymaniyah, and Salahaddin). To evaluate the seasonal spatial distributions, De Martonne was utilized. During winter, the climate types ranged from semi-arid to very-humid, while at spring season from arid to humid. Autumn season dominated by arid at (97%) of study area. The summer season was the driest compared with the other seasons. The change point for aridity indices was detected by using the cumulative sum charts (CUSUMs), it is found for the most stations in (1997). Consequently, the spatial distribution for the aridity indices were analyzed through two periods (1981-1997 and 1998-2015), this analysis showed that the arid and hyper-arid areas were increased in the second period compared with the first period with obvious extension toward the north of Iraq. 

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Key Native Dung Beetles in South American Grasslands

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2033
Author(s):  
Maria Eduarda Maldaner ◽  
Thadeu Sobral-Souza ◽  
Victor Mateus Prasniewski ◽  
Fernando Z. Vaz-de-Mello
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Dung Beetle ◽  
Dung Beetles ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
South American ◽  
Beetle Species ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Radical Reduction

Climate change is a serious threat, and it is necessary to prepare for the future climate conditions of grazing areas. Dung beetle species can help mitigate global warming by contributing to intense nutrient cycling and reduction in greenhouse gas emissions caused by cattle farming. Additionally, dung beetles increase soil quality through bioturbation and reduce nematodes and hematophagous flies’ abundance in grasslands areas. There are several dung beetle species inhabiting South American pastures, however, the effects of climate change on their spatial distribution are still unknown. Here, we aimed to predict the potential effects of future climate change on the geographical spatial distribution of the four most important (“key”) pastureland dung beetle species that are native to South America. We used niche-based models and future climate simulations to predict species distribution through time. Our findings show radical reduction in the spatial range of dung beetle species, especially in recently opened areas, e.g., the Amazon region. We suggest that the consequences of these species’ spatial retraction will be correlated with ecosystem services depletion under future climate conditions, urgently necessitating pasture restoration and parasite control, as the introduction of new alien species is not encouraged.

scholarly journals An Examination of the Framing of Climate Change by the Government of Canada, 2006-2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 43 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Chater
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Changement Climatique ◽  
The North ◽  
Conservative Government ◽  
The People ◽  
The Government ◽  
Government Of Canada ◽  
Arctic Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Background  How has the Government of Canada framed the issue of climate change in Canada’s northern region during the last decade?Analysis  This article undertakes a discourse analysis of Canadian government speeches, statements, and reports relating to northern climate change since 2006. It argues that the rhetoric of the 2006–2015 Conservative government de-emphasized the impact of Arctic climate change on the people of the North. It stressed the threat to environmental security and nature.Conclusions and implications  This article contributes to literature that understands how governments frame issues, as well as literature that examines the framing of climate change and reviews of Canada’s northern policy. Contexte  Comment le gouvernement canadien a-t-il représenté le changement climatique dans le Grand Nord au cours des dix dernières années?Analyse  Cet article entreprend l’analyse d’énoncés, de discours et de rapports du gouvernement canadien depuis 2006 qui portent sur le changement climatique dans le Grand Nord. L’article soutient que le gouvernement conservateur de 2006-2015 s’est efforcé par sa rhétorique de minimiser l’impact du changement climatique dans l’Arctique sur les habitants du Nord canadien. À l’époque, le gouvernement mettait plutôt l’accent sur la sécurité environnementale et la nature.Conclusions et implications  Cet article est une contribution à la recherche sur la manière dont les gouvernements représentent les problèmes sociaux. En outre, il vient compléter la recherche portant sur le cadrage du changement climatique et sur les politiques canadiennes à l’égard du Grand Nord.Mots clés  Canada; Gouvernement; Changement climatique; Cadrage

scholarly journals A Modelling Approach for the Assessment of Climate Change Impact on the Fungal Colonization of Historic Timber Structures

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (7) ◽  
pp. 819
Author(s):  
Petros Choidis ◽  
Dimitrios Kraniotis ◽  
Ilari Lehtonen ◽  
Bente Hellum
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Material Properties ◽  
Building Materials ◽  
Atmospheric Temperature ◽  
Fungal Colonization ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The North ◽  
Temperature And Humidity ◽  
Building Elements

Climate change is anticipated to affect the degradation of the building materials in cultural heritage sites and buildings. For the aim of taking the necessary preventive measures, studies need to be carried out with the utmost possible precision regarding the building materials of each monument and the microclimate to which they are exposed. Within the present study, a methodology to investigate the mold risk of timber buildings is presented and applied in two historic constructions. The two case studies are located in Vestfold, Norway. Proper material properties are selected for the building elements by leveraging material properties from existing databases, measurements, and simulations of the hygrothermal performance of selected building components. Data from the REMO2015 driven by the global model MPI-ESM-LR are used in order to account for past, present, and future climate conditions. In addition, climate data from ERA5 reanalysis are used in order to assess the accuracy the MPI-ES-LR_REMO2015 model results. Whole building hygrothermal simulations are employed to calculate the temperature and the relative humidity on the timber surfaces. The transient hygrothermal condition and certain characteristics of the timber surfaces are used as inputs in the updated VTT mold model in order to predict the mold risk of certain building elements. Results show a significant increase of the mold risk of the untreated timber surfaces due to climate change. The treated surfaces have no mold risk at all. It is also observed that the most significant increase of the mold risk occurs in the north-oriented and the horizontal surfaces. It is underlined that the mold risk of the timber elements is overestimated by the MPI-ES-LR_REMO2015 model compared to ERA5 reanalysis. The importance of considering the surface temperature and humidity, and not the atmospheric temperature and humidity as boundary conditions in the mold growth model is also investigated and highlighted.

scholarly journals Vector-borne diseases in Brazil: climate change and future warming scenarios

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 361-404
Author(s):  
Bruno Moreira de Carvalho ◽  
Leticia Palazzi Perez ◽  
Beatriz Fatima Alves de Oliveira ◽  
Ludmilla da Silva Viana Jacobson ◽  
Marco Aurélio Horta ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Visceral Leishmaniasis ◽  
Yellow Fever ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Vector Borne Diseases ◽  
Climate Suitability ◽  
Vector Borne

Climate change affects human health either directly or indirectly, and related impacts are complex, non-linear, and depend on several variables. The various climate change impacts on health include a change in the spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases. In this regard, this study presents and discusses changes in the spatial distribution of climate suitability for visceral leishmaniasis, yellow fever and malaria in Brazil, in different global warming scenarios. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to construct climate suitability models in warming scenarios. Models were based in climate variables generated by the Eta-HadGEM2 ES regional model, in the baseline period 1965-2005 and RCP8.5 scenario, representing global warming levels of 1,5ºC (2011-2040), 2,0ºC (2041-2070) and 4,0ºC (2071-2099). The three diseases studied are largely influenced by climate and showed different distribution patterns within the country. In global warming scenarios, visceral leishmaniasis found more favorable climate conditions in the Southeastern and Southern regions of Brazil, while climate in the Northern and Center-West regions gradually became more favorable to yellow fever. In malaria scenarios, an increase in favorable climate conditions to its high incidence was observed in the Atlantic Forest, where currently extra-Amazonian cases occur. The scenarios presented herein represent different possible consequences for the health sector in terms of adopting (or not) different measures to mitigate climate change in Brazil, such as reducing the emission of greenhouse gases.  

scholarly journals Phenological matching drives wheat pest range shift under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqing Wu ◽  
Zhongjun Gong ◽  
Daniel P. Bebber ◽  
Jin Miao ◽  
Zhonghua Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Adult Emergence ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
The North ◽  
Wheat Midge ◽  
Plant Pest ◽  
Negative Impacts

AbstractShifting geographical ranges of crop pests and pathogens in response to climate change pose a threat to food security (1, 2). The orange wheat blossom midge (Sitodiplosis mosellana Géhin) is responsible for significant yield losses in China (3), the world’s largest wheat producer. Here we report that rising temperatures in the North China Plain have resulted in a mean northward range shift of 3.3° (58.8 km per decade) from the 1950s to 2010s, which accelerated to 91.3 km per decade after 1985 when the highly toxic pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) was banned (4). Phenological matching between wheat midge adult emergence and wheat heading in this new expanded range has resulted in greater damage to wheat production. Around $286.5 million worth of insecticides were applied to around 19 million hectares in an attempt to minimize wheat midge damage to crops between 1985 and 2016. Despite use of these pesticides, wheat midge caused losses of greater than 0.95 million metric tons of grain during this period. Our results demonstrate the potential for indirect negative impacts of climate change on crop production and food security, and constitute the first large scale example of plant pest range shift due to global warming.

scholarly journals From spawning to first-year recruitment: the fate of juvenile sole growth and survival under future climate conditions in the North Sea

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
K E van de Wolfshaar ◽  
L Barbut ◽  
G Lacroix
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
First Year ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
The North ◽  
Early Arrival ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Young Of The Year

Abstract This study shows the effect of climate change on the growth and survival of early life history stages of common sole (Solea solea) in different nursery areas of the North Sea, by combining a larval transport model with an individual-based growth model (Dynamic Energy Budget) to assess the fate from egg to young of the year at the end of the first growth season. Three scenarios of climate change, inspired by the 2040 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections, are tested and results are compared to a reference situation representative of current climate conditions. Under climate change scenarios where wind changes, water temperature increases and earlier spawning are considered, the early arrival of fish larvae in their nurseries results in larger young of the year at the end of summer. However, early arrival leads to higher mortality due to initially slow growth in spring. Future climate scenarios result in higher biomass and reduced first-year survival. How this result translates into changes at population level and stock management needs further investigation. Nonetheless, this study illustrates that processes linking life stages are paramount to understand and predict possible consequences of future climate conditions on population dynamics.

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