scholarly journals Phenological matching drives wheat pest range shift under climate change

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuqing Wu ◽  
Zhongjun Gong ◽  
Daniel P. Bebber ◽  
Jin Miao ◽  
Zhonghua Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Adult Emergence ◽  
Range Shift ◽  
The North ◽  
Wheat Midge ◽  
Plant Pest ◽  
Negative Impacts

AbstractShifting geographical ranges of crop pests and pathogens in response to climate change pose a threat to food security (1, 2). The orange wheat blossom midge (Sitodiplosis mosellana Géhin) is responsible for significant yield losses in China (3), the world’s largest wheat producer. Here we report that rising temperatures in the North China Plain have resulted in a mean northward range shift of 3.3° (58.8 km per decade) from the 1950s to 2010s, which accelerated to 91.3 km per decade after 1985 when the highly toxic pesticide hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) was banned (4). Phenological matching between wheat midge adult emergence and wheat heading in this new expanded range has resulted in greater damage to wheat production. Around $286.5 million worth of insecticides were applied to around 19 million hectares in an attempt to minimize wheat midge damage to crops between 1985 and 2016. Despite use of these pesticides, wheat midge caused losses of greater than 0.95 million metric tons of grain during this period. Our results demonstrate the potential for indirect negative impacts of climate change on crop production and food security, and constitute the first large scale example of plant pest range shift due to global warming.

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture and Food Security: A Review

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Hasnain Raza ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Co2 Level ◽  
Agriculture And Food

Climate change has emerged as a major man-made global environmental problem, characterized by an increase in the earth's air temperature as a result of large-scale emissions of greenhouse gases. Agriculture and climate change are intrinsically linked in different ways, since biotic and abiotic stresses are primarily caused by climate change, all these factors have a detrimental effect on a region's agriculture. Agriculture is affected by climate change in various ways, e.g., heat stress at the reproductive stage, shortening of growing season length, pests or microbes, modification in weeds, and increase in CO2 level. The challenge of changing global climate has driven the scientists' interest, As a result of these changes, global crop production is suffering and global food security is in danger. The current study sheds light on the impacts of climate change on agriculture, as well as the consequences for food security.

scholarly journals Impact of air–sea coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alba de la Vara ◽  
William Cabos ◽  
Dmitry V. Sein ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
Daniela Jacob
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Distribution ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Climate Change Signal ◽  
The North ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn this work we use a regional atmosphere–ocean coupled model (RAOCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric component to gain insight into the impact of atmosphere–ocean coupling on the climate change signal over the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The IP climate is influenced by both the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean sea. Complex interactions with the orography take place there and high-resolution models are required to realistically reproduce its current and future climate. We find that under the RCP8.5 scenario, the generalized 2-m air temperature (T2M) increase by the end of the twenty-first century (2070–2099) in the atmospheric-only simulation is tempered by the coupling. The impact of coupling is specially seen in summer, when the warming is stronger. Precipitation shows regionally-dependent changes in winter, whilst a drier climate is found in summer. The coupling generally reduces the magnitude of the changes. Differences in T2M and precipitation between the coupled and uncoupled simulations are caused by changes in the Atlantic large-scale circulation and in the Mediterranean Sea. Additionally, the differences in projected changes of T2M and precipitation with the RAOCM under the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios are tackled. Results show that in winter and summer T2M increases less and precipitation changes are of a smaller magnitude with the RCP4.5. Whilst in summer changes present a similar regional distribution in both runs, in winter there are some differences in the NW of the IP due to differences in the North Atlantic circulation. The differences in the climate change signal from the RAOCM and the driving Global Coupled Model show that regionalization has an effect in terms of higher resolution over the land and ocean.

scholarly journals Predicting Shifts in Land Suitability for Maize Cultivation Worldwide Due to Climate Change: A Modeling Approach

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 295
Author(s):  
Yuan Gao ◽  
Anyu Zhang ◽  
Yaojie Yue ◽  
Jing’ai Wang ◽  
Peng Su
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Land Suitability ◽  
Large Scale Assessment ◽  
Scale Assessment ◽  
Maize Cultivation ◽  
Large Scale Screening ◽  
Selection Of

Suitable land is an important prerequisite for crop cultivation and, given the prospect of climate change, it is essential to assess such suitability to minimize crop production risks and to ensure food security. Although a variety of methods to assess the suitability are available, a comprehensive, objective, and large-scale screening of environmental variables that influence the results—and therefore their accuracy—of these methods has rarely been explored. An approach to the selection of such variables is proposed and the criteria established for large-scale assessment of land, based on big data, for its suitability to maize (Zea mays L.) cultivation as a case study. The predicted suitability matched the past distribution of maize with an overall accuracy of 79% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.72. The land suitability for maize is likely to decrease markedly at low latitudes and even at mid latitudes. The total area suitable for maize globally and in most major maize-producing countries will decrease, the decrease being particularly steep in those regions optimally suited for maize at present. Compared with earlier research, the method proposed in the present paper is simple yet objective, comprehensive, and reliable for large-scale assessment. The findings of the study highlight the necessity of adopting relevant strategies to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change.

Adapting to climate change for food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia: supplemental irrigation, plant density and sowing date

2016 ◽  
Vol 155 (5) ◽  
pp. 703-724 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. MULUNEH ◽  
L. STROOSNIJDER ◽  
S. KEESSTRA ◽  
B. BIAZIN
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Plant Density ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Sowing Date ◽  
Supplemental Irrigation ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Improve Food Security ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

SUMMARYStudies on climate impacts and related adaptation strategies are becoming increasingly important to counteract the negative impacts of climate change. In Ethiopia, climate change is likely to affect crop yields negatively and therefore food security. However, quantitative evidence is lacking about the ability of farm-level adaptation options to offset the negative impacts of climate change and to improve food security. The MarkSim Global Climate Model weather generator was used to generate projected daily rainfall and temperature data originally taken from the ECHAM5 general circulation model and ensemble mean of six models under high (A2) and low (B1) emission scenarios. The FAO AquaCrop model was validated and subsequently used to predict maize yields and explore three adaptation options: supplemental irrigation (SI), increasing plant density and changing sowing date. The maximum level of maize yield was obtained when the second level of supplemental irrigation (SI2), which is the application of irrigation water when the soil water depletion reached 75% of the total available water in the root zone, is combined with 30 000 plants/ha plant density. It was also found that SI has a marginal effect in good rainfall years but using 94–111 mm of SI can avoid total crop failure in drought years. Hence, SI is a promising option to bridge dry spells and improve food security in the Rift Valley dry lands of Ethiopia. Expected longer dry spells during the shorter rainy season (Belg) in the future are likely to further reduce maize yield. This predicted lower maize production is only partly compensated by the expected increase in CO2 concentration. However, shifting the sowing period of maize from the current Belg season (mostly April or May) to the first month of the longer rainy season (Kiremt) (June) can offset the predicted yield reduction. In general, the present study showed that climate change will occur and, without adaptation, will have negative effects. Use of SI and shifting sowing dates are viable options for adapting to the changes, stabilizing or increasing yield and therefore improving food security for the future.

scholarly journals Drought-tolerant Varieties as an Adaptation Strategy in the Context of Climate Change: Insight from Maize Production Systems in Benin

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Mohamed Nasser Baco
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Smallholder Farmers ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Maize Production ◽  
Ecological Zones ◽  
Drought Tolerant ◽  
Agro Ecological Zones

Previous studies suggested that maize is set to become a cash crop while ensuring food security better than any other crop. However, climate change has become one of the key production constraints that are now hampering and threatening the sustainability of maize production systems. We conducted a study to better understand changes here defined as adaptations made by smallholder farmers to ensure food security and improve income through maize production in a climate change context. Our results show that maize farmers in northern Benin mainly rely on traditional seeds. Drought as abiotic stress is perceived by farmers in many agro-ecological zones as a disruptive factor for crop production, including maize. When drought is associated with pest damages, both the quantity (i.e. yield) and the quality (i.e. attributes) of products/harvests are negatively affected. The adverse effects of drought continue to reduce production in different agro-ecological zones of the country, because of the lack of widespread adoption of tolerant varieties. The study suggests actions towards the production of drought-tolerant maize seeds, a promotion of seed companies, the organization of actors and value chains. Apart from climate change, the promotion of value chains is also emerging as one of the important aspects to take into account to sustain maize production in Benin.

scholarly journals Quantifying synergies and trade-offs in the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus using a multi-model scenario approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Doelman ◽  
Tom Kram ◽  
Benjamin Bodirsky ◽  
Isabelle Weindle ◽  
Elke Stehfest
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Development Goals

<p>The human population has substantially grown and become wealthier over the last decades. These developments have led to major increases in the use of key natural resources such as food, energy and water causing increased pressure on the environment throughout the world. As these trends are projected to continue into the foreseeable future, a crucial question is how the provision of resources as well as the quality of the environment can be managed sustainably.</p><p>Environmental quality and resource provision are intricately linked. For example, food production depends on availability of water, land suitable for agriculture, and favourable climatic circumstances. In turn, food production causes climate change due to greenhouse gas emissions, and affects biodiversity through conversion of natural vegetation to agriculture and through the effects of excessive fertilizer and use of pesticides. There are many examples of the complex interlinkages between different production systems and environmental issues. To handle this complexity the nexus concept has been introduced which recognizes that different sectors are inherently interconnected and must be investigated in an integrated, holistic manner.</p><p>Until now, the nexus literature predominantly exists of local studies or qualitative descriptions. This study present the first qualitative, multi-model nexus study at the global scale, based on scenarios simultaneously developed with the MAgPIE land use model and the IMAGE integrated assessment model. The goal is to quantify synergies and trade-offs between different sectors of the water-land-energy-food-climate nexus in the context of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Each scenario is designed to substantially improve one of the nexus sectors water, land, energy, food or climate. A number of indicators that capture important aspects of both the nexus sectors and related SDGs is selected to assess whether these scenarios provide synergies or trade-offs with other nexus sectors, and to quantify the effects. Additionally a scenario is developed that aims to optimize policy action across nexus sectors providing an example of a holistic approach that achieves multiple sustainable development goals.</p><p>The results of this study highlight many synergies and trade-offs. For example, an important trade-off exists between climate change policy and food security targets: large-scale implementation of bio-energy and afforestation to achieve stringent climate targets negatively impacts food security. An interesting synergy exists between the food, water and climate sectors: promoting healthy diets reduces water use, improves water quality and increases the uptake of carbon by forests.</p>

Investigation of the two-decade environmental impact of large-scale agricultural cultivation and its impact on climate change in the Lajta-Project

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
András Polgár ◽  
Karolina Horváth ◽  
Imre Mészáros ◽  
Adrienn Horváth ◽  
András Bidló ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Environmental Impact ◽  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Winter Barley ◽  
Cultivated Plants ◽  
Agricultural Activity

<p>Crop production is applied on about half of Hungary’s land area, which amounts to approximately 4.5 million hectares. The agricultural activity has significant environmental impacts.</p><p>Our work aims the time series investigation of the impacts of large-scale agricultural cultivation<strong> </strong>on environment and primarily on climate change in<strong> </strong>the test area by applying environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) method.</p><p>The investigated area of Lajta Project can be found in the triangle formed by the settlements Mosonszolnok, Jánossomorja and Várbalog, in the north-western corner of Hungary, in Győr-Moson-Sopron county. The area has intense agri-environment characteristics, almost entirely lacking of grasslands and meadows.</p><p>We were looking for the answer to the question “To what extent does agricultural activity on this area impact the environment and how can it contribute to climate change during a given period?” The selection of the plants included in the analysis was justified by their significant growing area. We analysed the cultivation data of 5 crops: canola, winter barley, winter wheat, green maize and maize. Material flows of arable crop production technologies were defined in time series by the agricultural parcel register data. These covered the size of the area actually cultivated, the operational processes, records on seeds, fertilizer and pesticide use and harvest data by parcels. The examined environmental inventory database contained also the fuel consumption and lubricating oil usage of machine operations, and the water usage of chemical utilization.</p><p>In the life cycle modelling of cultivation, we examined 13 years of maize, 20 years of green maize, 20 years of winter barley, 18 years of winter wheat and 15 years of canola data calculated on 1 ha unit using GaBi life cycle analysis software.</p><p>In addition, we also calculated by an average cultivation model for all cultivated plants with reference data to 1 ha and 1 year period.</p><p>We applied methods and models in our life cycle impact assessment. According to the values of the impact categories, we set up the following increasing environmental ranking of plant cultivation: (1) canola has minimum environmental impacts followed by (2) green maize and (3) maize with slightly higher values, (4) winter barley has 6 times higher values preceded by (5) winter wheat with a slight difference. The previous environmental ranking of the specific cultivated plants’ contribution was also confirmed as regards the overall environmental impact: canola (1.0%) – green maize (4.9%) – maize (7.1%) – winter barley (43.1%) – winter wheat (44.0%).</p><p>Environmental impact category indicator results cumulated to total cultivation periods and total crop growing areas (quantitative approach) display the specific environmental footprints by crops. Increasing environmental ranking of environmental impacts resulted from cultivating the sample area is the following: (1) canola – (2) maize – (3) green maize – (4) winter barley – (5) winter wheat. The slight difference resulted in the rankings in quantitative approach according to the rankings of territorial approach on the investigated area is due to the diversity of cultivation time factor and the crop-growing parameter of the specific crops.</p><p>Acknowledgement: Our research was supported by the „Lajta-Project”.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Climate Change on Crops Adaptation and Strategies to Tackle Its Outcome: A Review

Plants ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Raza ◽  
Ali Razzaq ◽  
Sundas Mehmood ◽  
Xiling Zou ◽  
Xuekun Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Ozone Level

Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as climate change is the main cause of biotic and abiotic stresses, which have adverse effects on the agriculture of a region. The land and its agriculture are being affected by climate changes in different ways, e.g., variations in annual rainfall, average temperature, heat waves, modifications in weeds, pests or microbes, global change of atmospheric CO2 or ozone level, and fluctuations in sea level. The threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. According to some predicted reports, agriculture is considered the most endangered activity adversely affected by climate changes. To date, food security and ecosystem resilience are the most concerning subjects worldwide. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation, before it might affect global crop production drastically. In this review paper, we summarize the causes of climate change, stresses produced due to climate change, impacts on crops, modern breeding technologies, and biotechnological strategies to cope with climate change, in order to develop climate resilient crops. Revolutions in genetic engineering techniques can also aid in overcoming food security issues against extreme environmental conditions, by producing transgenic plants.

Climate change and food production in North West India

2015 ◽  
Vol 49 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Savita Ahlawat ◽  
Dhian Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Food Production ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Potential Threat ◽  
North West ◽  
Significant Change ◽  
Northwest Region

At present, climate change is one of the most challenging environmental issues as it poses potential threat to different sectors of economy at global level. Agriculture being an open activity is primarily dependent on climatic factors and change in climatic conditions affects the production, quality and quantity of crop production in an area. This paper attempts to study effects of only two parameters of climate i.e. temperature and rainfall on agricultural production in northwest region of India. Northwest region comprising of Punjab, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh and Jammu Kashmir states is the greatest food bowl of India contributing to its food security. The analysis of mean monthly rainfall and maximum and minimum temperatures (1901-2006) shows no significant change in temperature and rainfall conditions from 1901 to 1960; but afterward the change is more pronounced. On the whole any significant change in climatic conditions will not only challenge the food production of the region but also challenge the country’s food security situation.

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