scholarly journals Modeling the Trip Distributions of Tourists Based on Trip Chain and Entropy-Maximizing Theory

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (21) ◽  
pp. 10058
Author(s):  
Zhi-Wei Hou ◽  
Shijun Yu ◽  
Tao Ji
Keyword(s):  
Travel Demand ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Trip Distribution ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Trip Chain ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Planning And Construction ◽  
The City

Suburban tourist railway is an emerging transportation mode for tourism. Knowing the travel demand and trip distribution patterns of tourists is an important prerequisite to the planning and construction of suburban tourist railways. However, this issue has attracted very little research attention so far. Therefore, this paper proposes a forecasting model focused on the trip distribution of tourists who travel with the suburban tourist railway. Based on the analysis of the characteristics of tourists’ trips and the use of the trip chain method, the frequency, order, distance, and visiting volume of stay points of the trips of tourists have been intensively studied. Then, a tourist trip distribution forecasting model was built in this paper. It uses the Entropy-Maximizing theory to predict trip chain distribution probability and obtain the distribution of tourists within the city. A case study that takes the H city as an example was conducted to test the proposed model. The results of this case show that the output of the model can reflect the real trip distribution characteristics of tourists very well, which demonstrates the applicability and effectiveness of the proposed model.

scholarly journals Framework for Developing an Information Technology Maturity Model for Smart City Services in Emerging Economies: (FSCE2)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (22) ◽  
pp. 10712
Author(s):  
Wilson Nieto Bernal ◽  
Keryn Lorena García Espitaleta
Keyword(s):  
Information Technology ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Smart City ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Maturity Model ◽  
It Services ◽  
Implementation Model ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The City

The goal of this research is to design a framework to develop an information technology (IT) maturity model to guide the planning, design, and implementation of smart city services. The objectives of the proposed model are to define qualitatively and measure quantitatively the maturity levels for the IT dimensions used by smart cities (IT governance, IT services, data management and infrastructure), and to develop an implementation model that is practical and contextualized to the needs of any territory that wants to create or improve smart city services. The proposed framework consists of three components: a conceptual model of smart city services, IT dimensions and indicators, and IT maturity levels. The framework was validated by applying it to a case study for the evaluation of the IT maturity levels for the city of Cereté, Colombia.

scholarly journals Dynamic Modeling for Product Family Evolution Combined with Artificial Neural Network Based Forecasting Model: A Study of iPhone Evolution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sumana Biswas ◽  
Ismail Ali ◽  
Ripon Chakrabortty ◽  
Hasan Hüseyin Turan ◽  
Sondoss Elsawah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Research Work ◽  
Product Family ◽  
Critical Issue ◽  
Business Success ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Market Demand ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
Proper Estimation

<div>Products continuously evolve over time. Realizing the pattern of product family evolution along with proper estimation of features for future products has been regarded as a critical issue for business success. Focusing on this issue, a dynamic model for product family evolution combined with forecasting is proposed in this research work. The proposed model considers the influence of market demand, customer needs and technological requirements that are time-dependent. The methodology is a four-phase model. For each phase, the effectiveness of the developed approach is demonstrated with numerical simulation results and validated with a case study of Apple’s iPhone product family.</div>

scholarly journals Optimal Alternatives by Controlling Time and Cost of a Multi-Level Car Park Using Excel-Solver Program

2019 ◽  
Vol 54 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sada Abdalkhaliq Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Car Park ◽  
Overall Performance ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Excel Solver ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The City

In this research the best cost and time are identified to implement a multi-level car park. The aim of this research is to develop a time frame model, including time and cost analysis, and to find optimal alternatives for a multi-level garage project during the planning phase. The proposed model has been developed using Solver program in Excel built for combining cost and time calculations by adopting the Project Management Software (MS-Project) to facilitate optimal solution access. In future the same project can be implemented at the lowest possible cost. This research concluded that it is possible to obtain the optimal solution after analyzing the alternatives using the Solver program and then taking the results of the optimization process to perform the improvement of the timeline. The research highlights the factors such as: the estimated cost, the planned time and the alternatives available for optimum performance aimed at finding optimal solutions and thus enhancing overall performance. The research was applied to the case study of one of the projects implemented within the city and found that the results are consistent with the research objective. According application of the model, the solution shows it will reduce cost and time to about 190292 $ and 91day from the cost and time of actual project.

scholarly journals Impact of Samarkand’s Destination Attributes on International Tourists’ Revisit and Word-of-Mouth Intention

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5154
Author(s):  
Sanjar Jumanazarov ◽  
Alisher Kamilov ◽  
Kiattipoom Kiatkawsin
Keyword(s):  
Word Of Mouth ◽  
Review Process ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Affective Evaluation ◽  
Revisit Intention ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The World ◽  
The City ◽  
Practical Implications

Samarkand, Uzbekistan is a relatively unknown but emerging tourism destination. The city was once a major trading hub along the Great Silk Road. The once great city of Samarkand was hidden from the world tourism market, only to emerge after the country gained its independence in 1991. Since then, the artistically beautiful and historically-rich monuments have been attracting tourists from around the world. However, Samarkand has not been gaining much research attention at the same rate as international tourist arrivals. Thus, this study aims to comprehensively assess the city’s destination attributes and their impact on international visitor loyalty behaviors. The literature review process identified 16 destination attribute dimensions. Additionally, cognitive and affective evaluation, satisfaction, revisit intention, and word-of-mouth intention were identified and added to form the study model. A total of 223 international tourist samples were collected in Samarkand to validate the proposed model. The findings revealed 10 attributes to be consistently rated by the samples. Subsequently, the attributes were significantly influencing all subsequent hypothesized relationships. Both theoretical and practical implications are also discussed.

scholarly journals Probabilistic reference model for hourly PV power generation forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 152 ◽  
pp. 01002
Author(s):  
L. Alfredo Fernandez-Jimenez ◽  
Sonia Terreros-Olarte ◽  
Alberto Falces ◽  
Pedro M. Lara-Santillan ◽  
Enrique Zorzano-Alba ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Reference Model ◽  
Power Production ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Mean Power ◽  
Forecasting Models ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts

This paper presents a new probabilistic forecasting model of the hourly mean power production in a Photovoltaic (PV) plant. It uses the minimal information and it can provide probabilistic forecasts in the form of quantiles for the desired horizon, which ranges from the next hours to any day in the future. The proposed model only needs a time series of hourly mean power production in the PV plant, and it is intended to fill a gap in international literature where hardly any model has been proposed as a reference for comparison or benchmarking purposes with other probabilistic forecasting models. The performance of the proposed forecasting model is tested, in a case study, with the time series of hourly mean power production in a PV plant with 1.9 MW capacity. The results show an improvement with respect to the reference probabilistic PV power forecasting models reported in the literature.

scholarly journals STRATEGI PONDOK PESANTREN DALAM MENGHADAPI TANTANGAN GLOBALISASI (STUDI KASUS DI PONDOK PESANTREN API ASRI TEGALREJO MAGELANG)

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-26
Author(s):  
Ayu Suci Rianingsih Hairiyah
Keyword(s):  
Extracurricular Activities ◽  
Case Study Research ◽  
Boarding School ◽  
Boarding Schools ◽  
Research Attention ◽  
Qualitative Descriptive ◽  
Negative Impacts ◽  
Character Building ◽  
The City

Globalization is something we cannot avoid, and it impacts on all fronts, both positive and negative impacts. Globalization can also be a challenge for all, consequently, it requires a smart strategy to face the challenges of globalization. One of them is Pesantren. Pesantren with their classic characteristics must have a strategy to adapt to today’s guidance so that it able to maintain the existence, survive and be accepted by an increasingly advanced society. One of the pesantren that is aware of this is the API ASRI Islamic boarding school in the city of Magelang, this salaf-style pesantren has proven to be able to compete with other Islamic boarding schools, although it has only been established for about 13 years, but it has become the reference boarding school throughout Indonesia. This has attracted research attention to find out what the challenges of globalization are facing the API ASRI Islamic boarding school and how the strategy of the API ASRI Islamic boarding school in facing the challenges of globalization. This research is a case study research, using a qualitative descriptive approach. In this study, researchers used several techniques and data collection instruments, namely observation, interviews, and documentation. Techniques to check the validity of the data used in this study. The result of this study is that the biggest challenge faced by API ASRI Islamic boarding school is sophistication and promiscuity. Both of these are challenges of globalization that make Islamic boarding schools prepare themselves for this. Furthermore, the strategy used is through the formation of the character of the students and the formation of skills of the students. In terms of character building through the existence of Pesantren organizations and activities including the recitation, congregational prayer and mujahadah. And in terms of skill formation includes establishing formal schools and the existence of extracurricular activities which include English, tambourine and calligraphy.

scholarly journals Integrated Evaluation Model of Construction Vulnerability in Anthropic Fill Areas (IALV). Case Study: District of Villaverde in the City of Madrid, Spain

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8575
Author(s):  
Félix Escolano Sánchez ◽  
Francisco Parra Idreos ◽  
Manuel Bueno Aguado
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Evaluation Model ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Review Of Literature ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The World ◽  
The City ◽  
Study District

Over the coming years, developments of large urban areas are expected, many of them on plots where soil conditions may not be the most suitable for building. This is the case of plots that previously have been used for dumping anthropic fill deposits. The term anthropic fill included a large variety of materials, all of them related with human activity; but this paper is mainly focused on natural materials extracted from nearby excavations or construction debris that form non-contaminated lands. In a review of literature related to risks, it is observed that in the last 10 years there have been abundant investigations to determine vulnerability in urban areas. However, the risks derived from the presence of anthropic landfills have generally been overlooked. For this reason, there is a real need to quantify construction vulnerability in areas settled on anthropic landfills. A methodology, up to now unknown, must be created to estimate and extrapolate it to any part of the world. The aim is to avoid the likelihood of pathologies appearing in urban areas. Hence, and to address this lack of knowledge, an Integrated Evaluation Model has been developed. Its purpose is to quantify, simply but effectively, the construction vulnerability index in already consolidated areas of historic landfills. The proposed model has been validated in a very popular district of the city of Madrid. Its surface, the number of buildings affected and population involved make it truly representative.

scholarly journals UTILIZATION OF ORGANIC FRACTION OF MUNICIPAL WASTE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PRINCIPLES OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY – A CASE STUDY

2017 ◽  
pp. 001
Author(s):  
Gordana Stefanovic ◽  
Biljana Milutinović ◽  
Milica Ivanović ◽  
Ana Momčilović
Keyword(s):  
Circular Economy ◽  
Municipal Waste ◽  
City Management ◽  
Organic Fraction ◽  
Organic Part ◽  
Elementary Analysis ◽  
Energy Needs ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
The City

The organic fraction of municipal waste (MW) is a huge resource of nutrients and energy, primarily because of the high content of carbon as well as potassium and phosphorus. On the other hand, having in mind the problems that cities are faced with, such as energy supply, transportation, environmental pollution and many others, waste management has to be considered as an integral part of city management. Circular economy is a new concept of thinking which implies that all streams of a system should be considered as a possible resource, including waste. The organic part of municipal waste can be used in several ways. Anaerobic digestion (AD) that produces biogas and compost can be a part of the chain of circular economy of a city. This paper deals with the organic waste generated on the territory of the city of Nis with the focus on its potential in terms of carbon, hydrogen and mineral content. Based on the elementary analysis and quantity of waste, the streams of carbon and other elements that circulate through waste, biogas and compost have also been analyzed. Moreover, energy needs for AD function and transportation of both MW and compost are calculated. The analysis shows that the energy produced by AD can cover the energy needs for the proposed model, and the amount of produced compost is enough to recover nutrients on the majority of green yards in the city.

A Novel Forecasting Model Based on Support Vector Regression and Bat Meta-Heuristic (Bat–SVR): Case Study in Printed Circuit Board Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (01) ◽  
pp. 195-215 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirmohammad Tavakkoli ◽  
Jalal Rezaeenour ◽  
Esmaeil Hadavandi
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Printed Circuit Board ◽  
Bat Algorithm ◽  
Circuit Board ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Printed Circuit ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Board Industry

Sales forecasting is very beneficial to most businesses. A successful business needs accurate sales forecasting to understand the market and sales trends. This paper presents a novel sales forecasting model by integrating support vector regression (SVR) and bat algorithm (BA). Since the accuracy of SVR forecasting mainly depends on SVR parameters, we use BA for tuning these parameters because Bat is a newly introduced algorithm and has many parameters. In order to find the best set of BA parameters Taguchi method was utilized. We validated our model on four known UCI datasets. Then we applied our model in printed circuit board (PCB) sales forecasting case study. We compared the accuracy of the proposed model with Genetic algorithm (GA)–SVR, particle swarm optimization (PSO)–SVR, and classic-SVR. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the others. To ensure the robustness of our proposed model, sensitivity analysis was also done using our model to find out the effects of dependent variables values on sales time series.

Decision Model for Policy Makers in the Context of Citizens Engagement

2016 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 740-756 ◽  
Author(s):  
Imen Boukhris ◽  
Raouia Ayachi ◽  
Zied Elouedi ◽  
Sehl Mellouli ◽  
Nahla Ben Amor
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Making ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The North ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Network Process ◽  
The City

Citizens’ engagement is considered as one of the important dimensions for the development of smart cities since, in the vision of a city of the future (smart city), citizens will be more and more involved in the decision-making process of different issues related to the development of a city. In this context, policy makers face a decision problem where they have to integrate a new dimension, which is the voice of the citizens’ decision. This article proposes a tool based on multicriteria decision making methods to provide decision makers with the best alternative(s) that are based on citizens’ opinions. In order to tackle the potential interdependencies between criteria and also between alternatives in the selection process, we apply a hybrid model integrating the analytical network process and an extended version of technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution to support group decision-making. The proposed model is applied in the context of participatory budgeting (PB) where citizens decide on the projects in which the money can be invested. This process is complex since it encompasses multiple interdependent criteria that may be conflicting with each other and that are used to take decisions. To illustrate our approach, we will apply the proposed technique for the case study of La Marsa, a city in the north of the capital Tunis (Tunisia) that adopted, since 2014, a PB strategy in which citizens proposed alternatives on how an amount of money can be used to lighten specific streets in the city.

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