scholarly journals Wind storminess in the Adriatic Sea in a climate change scenario

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Bonaldo ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Antonio Ricchi ◽  
Sandro Carniel
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Northern Basin

In this work we assess the quality of the wind fields provided over the Adriatic Sea by the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM with reference to a control (CTR) period from 1971 to 2000 and to a future period from 2071 to 2100 under IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario (SCE), focusing on the implications for wave climate characterisation. Model skills have been assessed by comparing CTR results in terms of gross statistical properties and storm features against wind data from coastal observatories along the whole Italian Adriatic coast, showing a satisfactory capability of capturing the main features of mean observed seasonal variability. Significant achievements with reference to existing climatological models have been observed especially in terms of wind directionality, with unprecedented performances in reproducing the bimodal dominance of Bora (from northeast) and Sirocco (from southeast) in the northern basin, and the typical patterns of Bora jets flowing from the mountain ridges enclosing the Adriatic Sea on its eastern side. Future projections generally confirm the tendency to a decreasing energy trend envisaged by previous studies, with a more marked effect for extreme events in the northern basin. Based on the comparison between climatological wind fields and the results of a SWAN wave model run forced by COSMO-CLM, we also define and test a criterion for a rapid identification of some relevant case studies for dedicated wave modelling experiments, without the need of running entire climatological wave simulations. This permits to focus the analysis of climatological oceanographic extreme events to a limited number of selected cases, allowing remarkable saving of computational effort especially if an ensemble approach is desired.

scholarly journals Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2065-2076 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Benetazzo ◽  
F. Fedele ◽  
S. Carniel ◽  
A. Ricchi ◽  
E. Bucchignani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Numerical Predictions

Abstract. We present a study on expected wind wave severity changes in the Adriatic Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the phase-averaged spectral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model running under the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to infer the wave model accuracy in predicting seasonal variability and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular, numerical predictions of the significant wave height Hs are compared against available in-situ data. Further, a statistical analysis is carried out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated periods (control and future scenario simulations). In particular, the generalized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak Hs for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum wave height Hmax during a storm, both for the present climate and that of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity can occur locally.

scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of the Wind and Wave Climate in the Black Sea Along the Shipping Routes

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liliana Rusu ◽  
Alina Raileanu ◽  
Florin Onea
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Wind Fields

The aim of the present work is to assess the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea while considering various data sources. A special attention is given to the areas with higher navigation traffic. Thus, the results are analyzed for the sites located close to the main harbors and also along the major trading routes. The wind conditions were evaluated considering two different data sets, the reanalysis data provided by NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and the hindcast results given by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that were retrieved from EURO-CORDEX (European Domain-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). For the waves, there were considered the results coming from simulations with the SWAN (Simulating Wave Nearshore) model, forced with the above-mentioned two different wind fields. Based on these results, it can be mentioned that the offshore sites seem to show the best correlation between the two datasets for both wind and waves. As regards the nearshore sites, there is a good agreement between the average values of the wind data that are provided by the different datasets, except for the points located in the southern part of the Black Sea. The same trends noticed for the average values remain also valid for the extreme values. Finally, it can be concluded that the results obtained in this study are useful for the evaluation of the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea. Also, they give a more comprehensive picture on how well the wind field provided by the Regional Climate Model, and the wave model forced with this wind, can represent the features of a complex marine environment as the Black Sea is.

A new wave hindcast for the North and Baltic Sea region using COSMO-REA6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolaus Groll
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Wave Hindcast ◽  
The North ◽  
Atmospheric Observations ◽  
The Baltic

<p>Wave hindcasts are still required as improved knowledge of climate variables representing the present marine climate are needed. Most long regional wave hindcasts are driven by numerically downscaled wind fields from global reanalysis. Whereas this approach gives a good representation of the regional wave climate in general, there are some deficits in the characteristics of extreme events. Using regional atmospheric reanalysis, which assimilates atmospheric observations into the numerical model, a better description of extreme events is expected. The regional atmospheric reanalysis COSMO-REA6 from the German Weather Service (DWD) showed that it is capable of a better representation of atmospheric extreme events. For the new regional wave hindcast, covering the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, we use the COSMO-REA6 to force the wave model WAM. It is shown, that his new wind hindcast leads to an improved representation of extreme wave events compared to other regional wave hindcasts and thus supports an important contribution to the understanding of the wave climate of extremes and for the design phase of offshore activities.</p>

scholarly journals Spatially resolved past and projected changes of the suitable thermal habitat of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) under climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (7) ◽  
pp. 2389-2403
Author(s):  
Ismael Núñez-Riboni ◽  
Marc H Taylor ◽  
Alexander Kempf ◽  
Miriam Püts ◽  
Moritz Mathis
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Sea ◽  
Gadus Morhua ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Southern Bight ◽  
Spatially Resolved ◽  
The North

Abstract Previous studies have identified changes in habitat temperature as a major factor leading to the geographical displacement of North Sea cod in the last decades. However, the degree to which thermal suitability is presently changing in different regions of the North Sea is still unclear, or if temperature alone (or together with fishery) is responsible for this displacement. In this study, the spatial distribution of different life stages of cod was modelled from 1967 to 2015. The model is fit point-to-point, spatially resolved at scales of 20 km. The results show that suitability has decreased south of 56°N (>12% in the Southern Bight) and increased north of it (with maximum of roughly 10% in southern Skagerrak). Future changes to suitability were estimated throughout the century using temperature projections from a regional climate model under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario RCP8.5. The results show that southern Skagerrak, the central and northern North Sea and the edge of the Norwegian trench will remain thermally suitable for North Sea cod throughout the century. This detailed geographical representation of thermally suitable key zones for North Sea cod under climate change is revealed for the first time through the improved resolution of this analysis.

scholarly journals Wave climate in the Arkona Basin, the Baltic Sea

Ocean Science ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 287-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Soomere ◽  
R. Weisse ◽  
A. Behrens
Keyword(s):  
Baltic Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
The Baltic Sea ◽  
Wave Heights ◽  
The Baltic ◽  
Basic Features

Abstract. The basic features of the wave climate in the Southwestern Baltic Sea (such as the average and typical wave conditions, frequency of occurrence of different wave parameters, variations in wave heights from weekly to decadal scales) are established based on waverider measurements at the Darss Sill in 1991–2010. The measured climate is compared with two numerical simulations with the WAM wave model driven by downscaled reanalysis of wind fields for 1958–2002 and by adjusted geostrophic winds for 1970–2007. The wave climate in this region is typical for semi-enclosed basins of the Baltic Sea. The maximum wave heights are about half of those in the Baltic Proper. The maximum recorded significant wave height HS =4.46 m occurred on 3 November 1995. The wave height exhibits no long-term trend but reveals modest interannual (about 12 % of the long-term mean of 0.76 m) and substantial seasonal variation. The wave periods are mostly concentrated in a narrow range of 2.6–4 s. Their distribution is almost constant over decades. The role of remote swell is very small.

scholarly journals CO2 Sensitivity of Extreme Climate Events in the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason L. Bell ◽  
Lisa C. Sloan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract Based upon trends in observed climate, extreme events are thought to be increasing in frequency and/or magnitude. This change in extreme events is attributed to enhancement of the hydrologic cycle caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Results are presented of relatively long (50 yr) regional climate model simulations of the western United States examining the sensitivity of climate and extreme events to a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These results indicate a shift in the temperature distribution, resulting in fewer cold days and more hot days; the largest changes occur at high elevations. The rainfall distribution is also affected; total rain increases as a result of increases in rainfall during the spring season and at higher elevations. The risk of flooding is generally increased, as is the severity of droughts and heat waves. These results, combined with results of decreased snowpack and increased evaporation, could further stress the water supply of the western United States.

scholarly journals Performance of the Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate component – a COAWST V3.3-based coupled atmosphere–ocean modelling suite: atmospheric dataset

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 3995-4017
Author(s):  
Cléa Denamiel ◽  
Petra Pranić ◽  
Damir Ivanković ◽  
Iva Tojčić ◽  
Ivica Vilibić
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Thermohaline Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Evaluation Study ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Climate Studies

Abstract. In this evaluation study, the coupled atmosphere–ocean Adriatic Sea and Coast (AdriSC) climate model, which was implemented to carry out 31-year evaluation and climate projection simulations in the Adriatic and northern Ionian seas, is briefly presented. The kilometre-scale AdriSC atmospheric results, derived with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3 km model for the 1987–2017 period, are then thoroughly compared to a comprehensive publicly and freely available observational dataset. The evaluation shows that overall, except for the summer surface temperatures, which are systematically underestimated, the AdriSC WRF 3 km model has a far better capacity to reproduce surface climate variables (and particularly the rain) than the WRF regional climate models at 0.11∘ resolution. In addition, several spurious data have been found in both gridded products and in situ measurements, which thus should be used with care in the Adriatic region for climate studies at local and regional scales. Long-term simulations with the AdriSC climate model, which couples the WRF 3 km model with a 1 km ocean model, might thus be a new avenue to substantially improve the reproduction, at the climate scale, of the Adriatic Sea dynamics driving the Eastern Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. As such it may also provide new standards for climate studies of orographically developed coastal regions in general.

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