scholarly journals A Comparative Analysis of the Wind and Wave Climate in the Black Sea Along the Shipping Routes

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 924 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liliana Rusu ◽  
Alina Raileanu ◽  
Florin Onea
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Wind Fields

The aim of the present work is to assess the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea while considering various data sources. A special attention is given to the areas with higher navigation traffic. Thus, the results are analyzed for the sites located close to the main harbors and also along the major trading routes. The wind conditions were evaluated considering two different data sets, the reanalysis data provided by NCEP-CFSR (U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis) and the hindcast results given by a Regional Climate Model (RCM) that were retrieved from EURO-CORDEX (European Domain-Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment). For the waves, there were considered the results coming from simulations with the SWAN (Simulating Wave Nearshore) model, forced with the above-mentioned two different wind fields. Based on these results, it can be mentioned that the offshore sites seem to show the best correlation between the two datasets for both wind and waves. As regards the nearshore sites, there is a good agreement between the average values of the wind data that are provided by the different datasets, except for the points located in the southern part of the Black Sea. The same trends noticed for the average values remain also valid for the extreme values. Finally, it can be concluded that the results obtained in this study are useful for the evaluation of the wind and wave climate in the Black Sea. Also, they give a more comprehensive picture on how well the wind field provided by the Regional Climate Model, and the wave model forced with this wind, can represent the features of a complex marine environment as the Black Sea is.

scholarly journals Wind storminess in the Adriatic Sea in a climate change scenario

2017 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Davide Bonaldo ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Antonio Ricchi ◽  
Sandro Carniel
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Computational Effort ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Northern Basin

In this work we assess the quality of the wind fields provided over the Adriatic Sea by the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM with reference to a control (CTR) period from 1971 to 2000 and to a future period from 2071 to 2100 under IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario (SCE), focusing on the implications for wave climate characterisation. Model skills have been assessed by comparing CTR results in terms of gross statistical properties and storm features against wind data from coastal observatories along the whole Italian Adriatic coast, showing a satisfactory capability of capturing the main features of mean observed seasonal variability. Significant achievements with reference to existing climatological models have been observed especially in terms of wind directionality, with unprecedented performances in reproducing the bimodal dominance of Bora (from northeast) and Sirocco (from southeast) in the northern basin, and the typical patterns of Bora jets flowing from the mountain ridges enclosing the Adriatic Sea on its eastern side. Future projections generally confirm the tendency to a decreasing energy trend envisaged by previous studies, with a more marked effect for extreme events in the northern basin. Based on the comparison between climatological wind fields and the results of a SWAN wave model run forced by COSMO-CLM, we also define and test a criterion for a rapid identification of some relevant case studies for dedicated wave modelling experiments, without the need of running entire climatological wave simulations. This permits to focus the analysis of climatological oceanographic extreme events to a limited number of selected cases, allowing remarkable saving of computational effort especially if an ensemble approach is desired.

scholarly journals Summer drought in Switzerland 1981‒2020: Events, trends and drivers

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon C. Scherrer ◽  
Christoph Spirig ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Felix Maurer ◽  
Sven Kotlarski
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Soil Water ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Summer Drought ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Temperature Scaling

<p>The Alpine region has recently experienced several dry summers with negative impacts on the economy, society and ecology. Here, soil water, evapotranspiration and meteorological data from several observational and model-based data sources is used to assess events, trends and drivers of summer drought in Switzerland in the period 1981‒2020. 2003 and 2018 are identified as the driest summers followed by somewhat weaker drought conditions in 2020, 2015 and 2011. We find clear evidence for an increasing summer drying in Switzerland. The observed climatic water balance (-39.2 mm/decade) and 0-1 m soil water from reanalysis (ERA5-Land: -4.7 mm/decade; ERA5: -7.2 mm/decade) show a clear tendency towards summer drying with decreasing trends in most months. Increasing evapotranspiration (potential evapotranspiration: +21.0 mm/decade; ERA5-Land actual evapotranspiration: +15.1 mm/decade) is identified as important driver which scales excellently (+4 to +7%/K) with the observed strong warming of about 2°C. An insignificant decrease in precipitation further enhanced the tendency towards drier conditions. Most simulations of the EURO-CORDEX regional climate model ensemble underestimate the changes in summer drying. They underestimate both, the observed recent summer warming and the small decrease in precipitation. The changes in temperature and precipitation are negatively correlated, i.e. simulations with stronger warming tend to show (weak) decreases in precipitation. However, most simulations and the reanalysis overestimate the correlation between temperature and precipitation and the precipitation-temperature scaling on the interannual time scale. Our results emphasize that the analysis of the regional summer drought evolution and its drivers remains challenging especially with regional climate model data but considerable uncertainties also exist in reanalysis data sets.</p>

scholarly journals Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

2010 ◽  
Vol 2010 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Klaus Dethloff ◽  
Ksenia Glushak ◽  
Annette Rinke ◽  
Dörthe Handorf
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
East Antarctica ◽  
Transient Pressure ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Antarctic

The regional climate model HIRHAM has been applied to Antarctica driven at the lateral and lower boundaries by European Reanalysis data ERA-40 for the period 1958–1998. Simulations over 4 decades, carried out with a horizontal resolution of 50 km, deliver a realistic simulation of the Antarctic atmospheric circulation, synoptic-scale pressure systems, and the spatial distribution of precipitation minus sublimation (P-E) structures. The simulated P-E pattern is in qualitative agreement with glaciological estimates. The estimated (P-E) trends demonstrate surfacemass accumulation increase at the West Antarctic coasts and reductions in parts of East Antarctica. The influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) on the near-surface climate and the surface mass accumulation over Antarctica have been investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica.

Wave climate in the Black Sea: description and trend evaluation using new ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis and wave-current interaction.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Salvatore Causio ◽  
Piero Lionello ◽  
Stefania Angela Ciliberti ◽  
Giovanni Coppini
Keyword(s):  
Black Sea ◽  
Wave Spectrum ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Wave Direction ◽  
Wave Regime ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Discrete Interaction

<p>This study analyzes the evolution of the wave climate in the Black Sea basin in a 31-year long hindcast (1988-2018) performed with the third-generation wave model WaveWatchIII v5.16, forced by the ECMWF-ERA5 reanalysis winds at 30km of spatial resolution and 1-hour frequency. The wave model is implemented on a grid covering the whole Black Sea, with 3km grid step and is off-line coupled with a NEMO based hydrodynamical model. The wave spectrum is discretized using 24 directional sectors, and 30 frequencies, with 10% increment starting from 0.055Hz. The model is implemented to solve deep water processes, following the WAM Cycle4 model physics, with Ultimate Quickest propagation scheme and GSE alleviation, which is implemented in WWIII. Wind input and dissipation are based on Ardhuin et al. (2010), wave-wave interactions are based on Discrete Interaction Approximation. Currents and air-sea temperature difference are provided to the wave model to account for Doppler shift and atmospheric stability above the sea. Model validation and statistical analysis have been carried out to describe the wave climate of the Black sea, considering the following wave fields: significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tm) and mean wave direction. Statistics as Mean, Maximum, 5<sup>th</sup> percentile and 95<sup>th</sup> statistics have been computed to produce monthly climatologies. The work considers also the evaluation of trends for Hs and Tm, and the evaluation of tendency in the occurrence frequency of mean and max fields for Hs and Tm.</p><p>There is no evidence about an overall trend in Hs and Tm, but tendencies can be highlighted in some months and seasons. The most evident trend occurs in Summer on the whole wave spectrum, with reduction of Hs and Tm in the Eastern basin, and increasing in the South-Western basins. Even the evaluation of occurrence frequencies suggests that Black Sea is subjected to a change in the wave regime.</p>

scholarly journals Wave climate of the Adriatic Sea: a future scenario simulation

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 2065-2076 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Benetazzo ◽  
F. Fedele ◽  
S. Carniel ◽  
A. Ricchi ◽  
E. Bucchignani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Wave Height ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Adriatic Sea ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Numerical Predictions

Abstract. We present a study on expected wind wave severity changes in the Adriatic Sea for the period 2070–2099 and their impact on extremes. To do so, the phase-averaged spectral wave model SWAN is forced using wind fields computed by the high-resolution regional climate model COSMO-CLM, the climate version of the COSMO meteorological model downscaled from a global climate model running under the IPCC-A1B emission scenario. Namely, the adopted wind fields are given with a horizontal resolution of 14 km and 40 vertical levels, and they are prepared by the Italian Aerospace Research Centre (CIRA). Firstly, in order to infer the wave model accuracy in predicting seasonal variability and extreme events, SWAN results are validated against a control simulation, which covers the period 1965–1994. In particular, numerical predictions of the significant wave height Hs are compared against available in-situ data. Further, a statistical analysis is carried out to estimate changes on wave storms and extremes during the simulated periods (control and future scenario simulations). In particular, the generalized Pareto distribution is used to predict changes of storm peak Hs for frequent and rare storms in the Adriatic Sea. Finally, Borgman's theory is applied to estimate the spatial pattern of the expected maximum wave height Hmax during a storm, both for the present climate and that of the future scenario. Results show a future wave climate in the Adriatic Sea milder than the present climate, even though increases of wave severity can occur locally.

scholarly journals A Projection of the Wind Energy in the Black Sea along the 21st Century

2019 ◽  
Vol 103 ◽  
pp. 01005
Author(s):  
Liliana Rusu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Wind Fields ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this study is to assess the future wind power potential in the Black Sea based on the wind fields provided by the most recent regional climate projections achieved in the framework of EURO-CORDEX project. The climate change impacts on the wind speed magnitude will bring changes in the local wind power generation. From this perspective, changes in the wind power potential along the 21st century in some reference locations of the Black Sea basin are investigated under the RCP4.5 scenario. The recent wind power conditions for a 30-year period (1976-2005) are assessed based on the results provided by the same RCM (Regional Climate Model) used to generate the future climate projections of the wind fields. The impact of the climate change on the future wind power potential is evaluated by comparisons between historical data and near-future (2021-2050) and more distant future (2071-2100) projections. Under the scenario considered, an increase of the mean wind power was observed until the middle of the 21st century, followed by a small decrease. From the seasonal analysis resulted that, in the reference points located on the western side, the projection of the wind energy in winter time suggests an increase until the end of the century. On the other hand, the linear regressions adjusted to the annual means do not indicate a significant trend.

scholarly journals Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

2012 ◽  
Vol 6 (6) ◽  
pp. 4939-4976 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tedesco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
T. Mote ◽  
J. Wahr ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ~ 97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ~ two months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ~ 3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance was ~ 3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g. albedo) and pre-conditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Because of self-amplifying positive feedbacks, less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should large-scale atmospheric circulation and induced surface characteristics observed over the past decade persist. Since the general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) do not simulate the abnormal anticyclonic circulation resulting from extremely negative NAO conditions as observed over recent years, contribution to sea level rise projected under different warming scenarios will be underestimated should the trend in NAO summer values continue.

Mediterranean and Black seas maximum waves climatology

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Barbariol ◽  
Arno Behrens ◽  
Alvise Benetazzo ◽  
Silvio Davison ◽  
Gerhard Gayer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mediterranean Sea ◽  
Wave Height ◽  
Black Sea ◽  
Atmospheric Stability ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
Wave Climate ◽  
The Black Sea ◽  
Positive Anomaly ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Mediterranean And Black Seas

<p>Reliable wave forecasts and hindcasts, together with long-term statistical analysis of extreme conditions, are of utmost importance for monitoring marine areas. Indeed, there is general consensus that high-quality predictions of extreme events during marine storms can substantially contribute to avoiding or minimizing human and material damage, especially in busy waterways such as the Mediterranean and Black Seas. So far, however, the wave climate characterization (average and anomaly relative to the average) has focused on the bulk characterization of the significant wave height H<sub>s</sub>, and it has lacked a description of the individual waves, such as the maximum ones that may occur at a given location in the sea. To fill this gap, we provide the intensity and geographical distribution of the maximum waves in the Mediterranean and Black Seas over 27 years (1993-2019), by representing the average annual (1993-2018) and anomaly for 2019 relative to the average of the 99th percentile of the expected maximum wave height H<sub>m</sub> and crest height C<sub>m</sub>. The analysis combines wave model hindcasts available through CMEMS model setup and the wave model WAVEWATCH III®, both forced with ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis winds. Results show that in 2019 maximum waves were smaller than usual in the Black Sea (anomalies of H<sub>m</sub> up to -1.5 m), while in the Mediterranean Sea a markedly positive anomaly (+2.5 m for H<sub>m</sub>) was found in the southern part of the basin. The peculiar 2019 configuration seems to be caused by a widespread atmospheric stability over the Black Sea and by depressions that rapidly passed over the Mediterranean Sea.</p>

scholarly journals Evidence and analysis of 2012 Greenland records from spaceborne observations, a regional climate model and reanalysis data

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 615-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Tedesco ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
T. Mote ◽  
J. Wahr ◽  
P. Alexander ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. A combined analysis of remote sensing observations, regional climate model (RCM) outputs and reanalysis data over the Greenland ice sheet provides evidence that multiple records were set during summer 2012. Melt extent was the largest in the satellite era (extending up to ∼97% of the ice sheet) and melting lasted up to ∼2 months longer than the 1979–2011 mean. Model results indicate that near surface temperature was ∼3 standard deviations (σ) above the 1958–2011 mean, while surface mass balance (SMB) was ∼3σ below the mean and runoff was 3.9σ above the mean over the same period. Albedo, exposure of bare ice and surface mass balance also set new records, as did the total mass balance with summer and annual mass changes of, respectively, −627 Gt and −574 Gt, 2σ below the 2003–2012 mean. We identify persistent anticyclonic conditions over Greenland associated with anomalies in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), changes in surface conditions (e.g., albedo, surface temperature) and preconditioning of surface properties from recent extreme melting as major driving mechanisms for the 2012 records. Less positive if not increasingly negative SMB will likely occur should these characteristics persist.

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