scholarly journals CO2 Sensitivity of Extreme Climate Events in the Western United States

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (15) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jason L. Bell ◽  
Lisa C. Sloan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract Based upon trends in observed climate, extreme events are thought to be increasing in frequency and/or magnitude. This change in extreme events is attributed to enhancement of the hydrologic cycle caused by increased greenhouse gas concentrations. Results are presented of relatively long (50 yr) regional climate model simulations of the western United States examining the sensitivity of climate and extreme events to a doubling of preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentrations. These results indicate a shift in the temperature distribution, resulting in fewer cold days and more hot days; the largest changes occur at high elevations. The rainfall distribution is also affected; total rain increases as a result of increases in rainfall during the spring season and at higher elevations. The risk of flooding is generally increased, as is the severity of droughts and heat waves. These results, combined with results of decreased snowpack and increased evaporation, could further stress the water supply of the western United States.

scholarly journals Assessing Future Changes of Climate Extreme Events in the CORDEX-MENA Region Using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 477-492
Author(s):  
Fatima Driouech ◽  
Khalid ElRhaz ◽  
Willfran Moufouma-Okia ◽  
Khadija Arjdal ◽  
Saloua Balhane
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Domain Model ◽  
Climate Extreme ◽  
Mena Region ◽  
North East ◽  
The North

Abstract This study investigates future changes of temperature, precipitation, and associated extreme events in the MENA region using Regional Climate Model ALADIN-Climate over the CORDEX-MENA domain. Model capabilities to reproduce key observed regional climate features are first assessed, including heat waves, drought and high precipitation extremes. Projected changes indicate the intensification of heat waves number, duration and magnitude, and contrasted precipitation changes. A drying is projected in the north-west and moistening in the north-east along the Mediterranean side of the region. Projected regional warming is found at the rate of about 0.2 °C/decade to 0.5 °C/decade over land depending on the scenario. Drought is expected to increase in the northern half of the region independently from the index used, but with a higher rate in the case of the index accounting for both the effect of precipitation and temperature changes. ALADIN-Climate results corroborate previous studies projecting the MENA region to host global hot spots for drought in the late twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Analysis of Expected Climate Extreme Variability with Regional Climate Simulations over Napoli Capodichino Airport: A Contribution to a Climate Risk Assessment Framework

Earth ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 980-996
Author(s):  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
Alessandra Lucia Zollo ◽  
Myriam Montesarchio
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Extreme

In recent years, the scientific community has paid particular attention to the analysis of extreme events, such as heat waves, droughts, and intense rain events that have caused loss of human life and significant economic damage. Climate-related extremes generally produce large impact on infrastructures, especially on those with insufficient design, while some infrastructures may become inadequate under the effects of severe extremes. In the particular case of airports, the increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events will worsen their deterioration rate. This work presents an analysis of the expected climate variability over Napoli Capodichino Airport, using climate projections generated by the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. Simulations were performed over Italy, employing a spatial resolution of approximately 8 km. The time period simulated was 1979–2100, and, in particular, the CMIP5 historical experiment (based on historical greenhouse gas concentrations) was used for the period 1979–2005, while, for the period 2006–2100, two different simulations were performed, employing the Representative Concentration Pathways IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentrations. The meteorological situations over the airport have been analyzed, along with the identification of conditions that could cause relevant impact on airport environment. In particular, extreme summer temperatures may exceed design standards, leading to heat damage to surfaces, while runways or aprons may have trouble due to the surface melting during peak heat periods. Long term changes in the directions of wind can adversely affect the usability of runways, while changes in wind shear could modify strength and frequency of clear-air turbulence. Analyses have been performed considering suitable Extreme Events Indicators (EWI), both on past trends and on numerical projections over future periods, with the aim of contributing to the definition of a risk assessment methodology based on the combination of the frequency and of the severity of meteorological hazards.

scholarly journals Changes in Twentieth-Century Extreme Temperature and Precipitation over the Western United States Based on Observations and Regional Climate Model Simulations*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (21) ◽  
pp. 8556-8575 ◽  
Author(s):  
Valérie Dulière ◽  
Yongxin Zhang ◽  
Eric P. Salathé
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract Trends in extreme temperature and precipitation in two regional climate model simulations forced by two global climate models are compared with observed trends over the western United States. The observed temperature extremes show substantial and statistically significant trends across the western United States during the late twentieth century, with consistent results among individual stations. The two regional climate models simulate temporal trends that are consistent with the observed trends and reflect the anthropogenic warming signal. In contrast, no such clear trends or correspondence between the observations and simulations is found for extreme precipitation, likely resulting from the dominance of the natural variability over systematic climate change during the period. However, further analysis of the variability of precipitation extremes shows strong correspondence between the observed precipitation indices and increasing oceanic Niño index (ONI), with regionally coherent patterns found for the U.S. Northwest and Southwest. Both regional climate simulations reproduce the observed relationship with ONI, indicating that the models can represent the large-scale climatic links with extreme precipitation. The regional climate model simulations use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and Hadley Centre Regional Model (HadRM) forced by the ECHAM5 and the Hadley Centre Climate Model (HadCM) global models for the 1970–2007 time period. Comparisons are made to station observations from the Historical Climatology Network (HCN) locations over the western United States. This study focused on temperature and precipitation extreme indices recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring and Indices (ETCCDMI).

Hydrological Processes in Regional Climate Model Simulations of the Central United States Flood of June–July 1993

2003 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 584-598 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher J. Anderson ◽  
Raymond W. Arritt ◽  
Zaitao Pan ◽  
Eugene S. Takle ◽  
William J. Gutowski ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Hydrological Processes ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Climate Model Simulations ◽  
June July

scholarly journals Regional Climate Model Projections and Uncertainties of U.S. Summer Heat Waves

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (16) ◽  
pp. 4447-4458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth E. Kunkel ◽  
Xin-Zhong Liang ◽  
Jinhong Zhu
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Threshold Temperature ◽  
Wave Characteristics

Abstract Regional climate model (RCM) simulations, driven by low and high climate-sensitivity coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) under various future emissions scenarios, were compared to projected changes in heat wave characteristics. The RCM downscaling reduces the CGCM biases in heat wave threshold temperature by a factor of 2, suggesting a higher credibility in the future projections. All of the RCM simulations suggest that there is a high probability of heat waves of unprecedented severity by the end of the twenty-first century if a high emissions path is followed. In particular, the annual 3-day heat wave temperature increases generally by 3°–8°C; the number of heat wave days increases by 30–60 day yr−1 over much of the western and southern United States with slightly smaller increases elsewhere; the variance spectra for intermediate, 3–7 days (prolonged, 7–14 days), temperature extremes increase (decrease) in the central (western) United States. If a lower emissions path is followed, then the outcomes range from quite small changes to substantial increases. In all cases, the mean temperature climatological shift is the dominant change in heat wave characteristics, suggesting that adaptation and acclimatization could reduce effects.

A regional climate model for the western United States

1989 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
RobertE. Dickinson ◽  
RonaldM. Errico ◽  
Filippo Giorgi ◽  
GaryT. Bates
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western United States

scholarly journals Evaluation of a Regional Climate Modeling Effort for the Western United States Using a Superensemble from Weather@home*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (19) ◽  
pp. 7470-7488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sihan Li ◽  
Philip W. Mote ◽  
David E. Rupp ◽  
Dean Vickers ◽  
Roberto Mera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Spatial Pattern ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Model Version ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract Simulations from a regional climate model (RCM) as part of a superensemble experiment were compared with observations of surface meteorological variables over the western United States. The RCM is the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model, version 3, with improved physics parameterizations (HadRM3P) run at 25-km resolution and nested within the Hadley Centre Atmosphere Model, version 3 (HadAM3P). Overall, the means of seasonal temperature were well represented in the simulations; 95% of grid points were within 2.7°, 2.4°, and 3.6°C of observations in winter, spring, and summer, respectively. The model was too warm over most of the domain in summer except central California and southern Nevada. HadRM3P produced more extreme temperatures than observed. The overall magnitude and spatial pattern of precipitation were well characterized, though HadRM3P exaggerated the orographic enhancement along the coastal mountains, Cascade Range, and Sierra Nevada. HadRM3P produced warm/dry northwest, cool/wet southwest U.S. patterns associated with El Niño. However, there were notable differences, including the locations of the transition from warm (dry) to cool (wet) in the anomaly fields when compared with observations, though there was disagreement among observations. HadRM3P simulated the observed spatial pattern of mean annual temperature more faithfully than any of the RCM–GCM pairings in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Errors in mean annual precipitation from HadRM3P fell within the range of errors of the NARCCAP models. Last, this paper provided examples of the size of an ensemble required to detect changes at the local level and demonstrated the effect of parameter perturbation on regional precipitation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document