scholarly journals Predicting the impact of climate change in Srepok river basin by LARS-WG model with CMIP5 scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. first
Author(s):  
Thi Thao Nhi Thi Thao ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
The Impact

Global warming has significantly challenged the natural environment and livelihood conditions. Understanding potential future changes of climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, is critical for water resource management in this region. This study proposed an approach to applying LARS-WG model in CMIP5 scenarios, 9 monitoring stations with 25-year series of dately data used for calibration and validation, which were the input data of the model. Combining data from 5 outputs of general periodic model (GCMs) for the periods 2021–2020, 2041–2060, and 2061– 2080, the results showed that the CMIP5 scenarios could be used successfully in the LARS-WG model and the model worked well under the climatic conditions of the Srepok river basin (Central Highlands of Vietnam). Comparing future weather scenarios with current weather data showed that warmer transitions and reduced rainfall would be generally in the future. Future temperature and precipitation trends showed an increase in both the magnitude and frequency of extreme events. So the affects of climate change are enormous on the management of related projects. Water resources need to be considered a lot in the local decision-making.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the effect of future climate on runoff in the Dongjiang River basin, South China

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 257-262
Author(s):  
K. Lin ◽  
W. Zhai ◽  
S. Huang ◽  
Z. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Dongjiang River ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of future climate change on the runoff for the Dongjiang River basin, South China, has been investigated with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). First, the SWAT model was applied in the three sub-basins of the Dongjiang River basin, and calibrated for the period of 1970–1975, and validated for the period of 1976–1985. Then the hydrological response under climate change and land use scenario in the next 40 years (2011–2050) was studied. The future weather data was generated by using the weather generators of SWAT, based on the trend of the observed data series (1966–2005). The results showed that under the future climate change and LUCC scenario, the annual runoff of the three sub-basins all decreased. Its impacts on annual runoff were –6.87%, –6.54%, and –18.16% for the Shuntian, Lantang, and Yuecheng sub-basins respectively, compared with the baseline period 1966–2005. The results of this study could be a reference for regional water resources management since Dongjiang River provides crucial water supplies to Guangdong Province and the District of Hong Kong in China.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Impacts of Climate Change and Downscaling Methods on Future Runoff Projections in the Biliu River Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Wu ◽  
Qi ◽  
Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Liaoning Province ◽  
Lower Envelope ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the uncertainties in the projected future runoff resulting from climate change and downscaling methods in the Biliu River basin (Liaoning province, Northeast China). One widely used hydrological model SWAT, 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs), two statistical downscaling methods, four dynamical downscaling datasets, and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are applied to construct 22 scenarios to project runoff. Hydrology variables in historical and future periods are compared to investigate their variations, and the uncertainties associated with climate change and downscaling methods are also analyzed. The results show that future temperatures will increase under all scenarios and will increase more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, while future precipitation will increase under 16 scenarios. Future runoff tends to decrease under 13 out of the 22 scenarios. We also found that the mean runoff changes ranging from −38.38% to 33.98%. Future monthly runoff increases in May, June, September, and October and decreases in all the other months. Different downscaling methods have little impact on the lower envelope of runoff, and they mainly impact the upper envelope of the runoff. The impact of climate change can be regarded as the main source of the runoff uncertainty during the flood period (from May to September), while the impact of downscaling methods can be regarded as the main source during the non-flood season (from October to April). This study separated the uncertainty impact of different factors, and the results could provide very important information for water resource management.

scholarly journals SWAT BASED ASSESSMENT AND PREDICTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT IN THENPENNAI SUB-BASIN OF SOUTH INDIA

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-5 ◽  
pp. 557-562
Author(s):  
K. Nivedita Priyadarshini ◽  
S. A. Rahaman ◽  
S. Nithesh Nirmal ◽  
R. Jegankumar ◽  
P. Masilamani
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Soil And Water

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Climate change impacts on watershed ecosystems and hydrologic processes are complex. The key significant parameters responsible for balancing the watershed ecosystems are temperature and rainfall. Though these parameters are uncertain, they play a prime role in the projections of dimensional climate change studies. The impact of climate change is more dependent on temperature and precipitation which contributes at a larger magnitude for characterising global warming issues. This paper aims to forecast the variations of temperature and precipitation during the period of 2020&amp;ndash;2050 for the northern part of Thenpennar sub basin. This study is modelled using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) &amp;ndash; a scale model developed to predict the impact of changes that occurs in land, soil and water over a period of time. This study is validated using the base period from 1980&amp;ndash;2000 which shows the distribution of rainfall and temperature among 38 watersheds. The results from this study show that there is a decrease in the rainfall for a maximum of about 20% in the month of December during the predicted period of 2020 and 2050. This study assesses the possible adverse impact of climate change on temperature and precipitation of Thenpennai sub-basin. This kind of predictions will help the government agencies, rulers and decision makers in policy making and implementing the adaptation strategies for the changing climatic conditions.</p>

scholarly journals Analyzing the impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality in the 3S river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Loi Thi Pham ◽  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing water resources under the influence of environmental change have gained attentions of scientists. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of land use change and climate change on water resources in terms quantity and quality in the 3S basin in the period 1981–2008 by using hydrological modeling (SWAT model). The results showed that streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P) tend to increase under individual and combined effects of climate change and land use change. In addition, the impact of land use change on the flow was smaller than the climate change impact. However, water balance components and water quality were equally affected by two factors of climate change and land use change. In general, the results of this study could serve as a reference for water resource management and planning in the river basin.

Freshwater, climate change and adaptation in the Ganges River Basin

Water Policy ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather R. Hosterman ◽  
Peter G. McCornick ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kistin ◽  
Bharat Sharma ◽  
Luna Bharati
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Ganges River ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ganges River Basin ◽  
Growth Economic

Climate change is one of the drivers of change in the Ganges River Basin, together with population growth, economic development and water management practices. These changing circumstances have a significant impact on key social and economic sectors of the basin, largely through changes in water quantity, quality and timing of availability. This paper evaluates the impact of water on changing circumstances in three sectors of the Ganges Basin – agriculture, ecosystems and energy. Given the inherent interconnectedness of these core sectors and the cross-cutting impact of changing circumstances on water resources, we argue that adaptation should not be viewed as a separate initiative, but rather as a goal and perspective incorporated into every level of planning and decision making. Adaptation to changing circumstances will need to be closely linked to water resource management and will require significant collaboration across the sectors.

Climate change in the Western Bug river basin and the impact on future hydro-climatic conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 72 (12) ◽  
pp. 4787-4799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dirk Pavlik ◽  
Dennis Söhl ◽  
Thomas Pluntke ◽  
Christian Bernhofer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Impact of projected 21st century climate change on basin hydrology and runoff in the Delaware River Basin, USA

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy W. Hawkins ◽  
Christopher J. Woltemade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Delaware River ◽  
Winter Runoff ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrologic Conditions

Abstract A gridded hydrologic model was developed to assess the impact of projected climate change on future Delaware River Basin (DRB) hydrology. The DRB serves as a water supply resource to over 15 million people. Model evaluation statistics for both water year and monthly runoff projections indicate that the model is able to capture well the hydrologic conditions of the DRB. Basinwide, annual temperature is projected to increase from 2.0 to 5.5 °C by 2080–2099. Correspondingly, potential and actual evapotranspiration, precipitation, rainfall, and runoff are all projected to increase, while snowfall, snow water storage, snowmelt, and subsurface moisture are all projected to decrease. By 2080–2099, basinwide summer subsurface moisture is projected to decrease 7–18% due to increased evapotranspiration, while winter runoff is projected to increase 15–43% due to increased precipitation and snowmelt and a conversion of snowfall to rainfall. Significant spatial variability in future changes to hydrologic parameters exists across the DRB. Changes in the timing and amount of future runoff and other hydrologic conditions need to be considered for future water resource management.

scholarly journals The impact of climate change on the corn yield in Serbia

2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (50) ◽  
pp. 133-140
Author(s):  
Gordana Petrović ◽  
Darjan Karabašević ◽  
Svetlana Vukotić ◽  
Vuk Mirčetić ◽  
Adriana Radosavac
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Vegetation Period ◽  
Research Process ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Corn Yield ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Agricultural Plant ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

The aim of the paper is to show the impact of climate factors on the corn yield in Serbia. Contemporary climate reports show that climate is changing, and the emission of greenhouse gases is one of the main causes of climate change. In three different locations (West Bačka District, Šumadija District and Nišava District) different climatic conditions and corn yield were analyzed for the period from 1991 to 2011. In the research process, the model of multiple linear regression and Pearson coefficient of correlation was applied. Obtained results has shown that there is a high correlation between parameters of climate conditions and variance of corn yield. A small amount of precipitation quantity and high maximum values of temperatures in the vegetation period influenced the decrease in yield, which was particularly noticed during the period from 2000 to 2007. A lower yield of corn was established compared to the average yield in all three observed districts, in the Šumadija district, the yield was lower 48% in 2000 and 52% in 2007, in the West Bačka District, a yield was lower 40% in 2000 and 20% in 2007, and in the Nišava District, the yield was lower 65% in 2000 and 49% in 2007. There are perennial variations of climatic factors, especially temperature and precipitation quantity, which affect the realization of the economic profitability of growing agricultural plant species. Losses in agriculture can be higher in conditions of an unstable climate. It is necessary to more precisely predict climate change and create new hybrids and varieties for cultivation that will be adaptable to changed climate conditions. Adaptations of plants to climatic conditions changes will contribute to greater economy of agricultural production, and the provision of food for the world's population.

River discharge in the Kone River basin (Central Vietnam) under climate change by applying the BTOPMC distributed hydrological model

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi Thanh Hang Phan ◽  
Kengo Sunada ◽  
Satoru Oishi ◽  
Yasushi Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A1b Scenario

The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Kone River basin located in Central Vietnam. In this study, historical and predicted river discharge trends are discussed. The predicted discharge is simulated using the BTOPMC model based on the A1B scenario as a scientific basis for socioeconomic development and integrated water resource management in the Kone River basin, during the period 2011–2034. During the period 1979–2007, annual discharge in the Kone River basin trended upwards slightly. However, both maximum and minimum discharges declined. The results of the predicted discharge under the A1B scenario suggest that river flow will increase slightly in the Kone River basin in the future. Both annual and flood season discharges will tend to increase during the period 2011–2034. In contrast, discharge during the low flow season will tend to decrease over the same period. For the period 2011–2034, the discharge volume in the Kone River will increase by 3%, in comparison with the period 1980–1999. Water volume will decrease by about 18.6% during the flood season and increase by approximately 90.0% during the low flow season relative to the period 1980–1999.

scholarly journals Response of altitudinal vegetation belts of the Tianshan Mountains in northwestern China to climate change during 1989–2015

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Lu-yu Liu ◽  
Yi Liu ◽  
Man Zhang ◽  
Cheng-bang An
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Animal Husbandry ◽  
Forest Tree ◽  
Tianshan Mountains ◽  
Northwestern China ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Altitudinal Belts ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWithin the mountain altitudinal vegetation belts, the shift of forest tree lines and subalpine steppe belts to high altitudes constitutes an obvious response to global climate change. However, whether or not similar changes occur in steppe belts (low altitude) and nival belts in different areas within mountain systems remain undetermined. It is also unknown if these, responses to climate change are consistent. Here, using Landsat remote sensing images from 1989 to 2015, we obtained the spatial distribution of altitudinal vegetation belts in different periods of the Tianshan Mountains in Northwestern China. We suggest that the responses from different altitudinal vegetation belts to global climate change are different. The changes in the vegetation belts at low altitudes are spatially different. In high-altitude regions (higher than the forest belts), however, the trend of different altitudinal belts is consistent. Specifically, we focused on analyses of the impact of changes in temperature and precipitation on the nival belts, desert steppe belts, and montane steppe belts. The results demonstrated that the temperature in the study area exhibited an increasing trend, and is the main factor of altitudinal vegetation belts change in the Tianshan Mountains. In the context of a significant increase in temperature, the upper limit of the montane steppe in the eastern and central parts will shift to lower altitudes, which may limit the development of local animal husbandry. The montane steppe in the west, however, exhibits the opposite trend, which may augment the carrying capacity of pastures and promote the development of local animal husbandry. The lower limit of the nival belt will further increase in all studied areas, which may lead to an increase in surface runoff in the central and western regions.

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