River discharge in the Kone River basin (Central Vietnam) under climate change by applying the BTOPMC distributed hydrological model

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi Thanh Hang Phan ◽  
Kengo Sunada ◽  
Satoru Oishi ◽  
Yasushi Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A1b Scenario

The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Kone River basin located in Central Vietnam. In this study, historical and predicted river discharge trends are discussed. The predicted discharge is simulated using the BTOPMC model based on the A1B scenario as a scientific basis for socioeconomic development and integrated water resource management in the Kone River basin, during the period 2011–2034. During the period 1979–2007, annual discharge in the Kone River basin trended upwards slightly. However, both maximum and minimum discharges declined. The results of the predicted discharge under the A1B scenario suggest that river flow will increase slightly in the Kone River basin in the future. Both annual and flood season discharges will tend to increase during the period 2011–2034. In contrast, discharge during the low flow season will tend to decrease over the same period. For the period 2011–2034, the discharge volume in the Kone River will increase by 3%, in comparison with the period 1980–1999. Water volume will decrease by about 18.6% during the flood season and increase by approximately 90.0% during the low flow season relative to the period 1980–1999.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Impacts of Climate Change and Downscaling Methods on Future Runoff Projections in the Biliu River Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Wu ◽  
Qi ◽  
Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Liaoning Province ◽  
Lower Envelope ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the uncertainties in the projected future runoff resulting from climate change and downscaling methods in the Biliu River basin (Liaoning province, Northeast China). One widely used hydrological model SWAT, 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs), two statistical downscaling methods, four dynamical downscaling datasets, and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are applied to construct 22 scenarios to project runoff. Hydrology variables in historical and future periods are compared to investigate their variations, and the uncertainties associated with climate change and downscaling methods are also analyzed. The results show that future temperatures will increase under all scenarios and will increase more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, while future precipitation will increase under 16 scenarios. Future runoff tends to decrease under 13 out of the 22 scenarios. We also found that the mean runoff changes ranging from −38.38% to 33.98%. Future monthly runoff increases in May, June, September, and October and decreases in all the other months. Different downscaling methods have little impact on the lower envelope of runoff, and they mainly impact the upper envelope of the runoff. The impact of climate change can be regarded as the main source of the runoff uncertainty during the flood period (from May to September), while the impact of downscaling methods can be regarded as the main source during the non-flood season (from October to April). This study separated the uncertainty impact of different factors, and the results could provide very important information for water resource management.

scholarly journals Generalization of parameters in the storage–discharge relation for a low flow based on the hydrological analysis of sensitivity

2015 ◽  
Vol 371 ◽  
pp. 69-73 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Fujimura ◽  
Y. Iseri ◽  
S. Kanae ◽  
M. Murakami
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Optimum Parameters ◽  
Proportional Relationship ◽  
Two Parameters ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Different Climates

Abstract. The storage-discharge relations have been widely used for water resource management and have led to reliable estimation of the impact of climate change on water resources. In a previous study, we carried out a sensitivity analysis of the parameters in a discharge-storage relation in the form of a power function and found that the optimum parameters can be characterized by an exponential function (Fujimura et al., 2014). The aim of this study is to extend the previous study to clarify the properties of the parameters in the storage–discharge relations by carrying out a sensitivity analysis of efficiency using a hydrological model. The study basins are four mountainous basins in Japan with different climates and geologies. The results confirm that the two parameters in the storage–discharge relations can be expressed in an inversely proportional relationship. In addition, we can conveniently assume a practical function for the storage–discharge relations where only one parameter is used on the basis of the new relationship between the two parameters.

scholarly journals Analyzing the impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality in the 3S river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Loi Thi Pham ◽  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing water resources under the influence of environmental change have gained attentions of scientists. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of land use change and climate change on water resources in terms quantity and quality in the 3S basin in the period 1981–2008 by using hydrological modeling (SWAT model). The results showed that streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P) tend to increase under individual and combined effects of climate change and land use change. In addition, the impact of land use change on the flow was smaller than the climate change impact. However, water balance components and water quality were equally affected by two factors of climate change and land use change. In general, the results of this study could serve as a reference for water resource management and planning in the river basin.

scholarly journals The Impact of Climate Change on the Duration and Division of Flood Season in the Fenhe River Basin, China

Water ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hejia Wang ◽  
Weihua Xiao ◽  
Jianhua Wang ◽  
Yicheng Wang ◽  
Ya Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
The Impact

Freshwater, climate change and adaptation in the Ganges River Basin

Water Policy ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather R. Hosterman ◽  
Peter G. McCornick ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kistin ◽  
Bharat Sharma ◽  
Luna Bharati
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Ganges River ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ganges River Basin ◽  
Growth Economic

Climate change is one of the drivers of change in the Ganges River Basin, together with population growth, economic development and water management practices. These changing circumstances have a significant impact on key social and economic sectors of the basin, largely through changes in water quantity, quality and timing of availability. This paper evaluates the impact of water on changing circumstances in three sectors of the Ganges Basin – agriculture, ecosystems and energy. Given the inherent interconnectedness of these core sectors and the cross-cutting impact of changing circumstances on water resources, we argue that adaptation should not be viewed as a separate initiative, but rather as a goal and perspective incorporated into every level of planning and decision making. Adaptation to changing circumstances will need to be closely linked to water resource management and will require significant collaboration across the sectors.

scholarly journals Identifying the runoff variation in the Naryn River Basin under multiple climate and land-use change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. S. Wu ◽  
Y. P. Li ◽  
J. Sun ◽  
P. P. Gao ◽  
G. H. Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Arable Land ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Runoff Variation ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A multiple scenario-based ensemble prediction (MSEP) method is developed for exploring the impacts of climate and land-use changes on runoff in the Naryn River Basin. MSEP incorporates multiple global climate models, Cellular Automata–Markov and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) within a general framework. MSEP can simultaneously analyze the effects of climate and land-use changes on runoff, as well as provide multiple climate and land-use scenarios to reflect the associated uncertainties in runoff simulation and prediction. Totally 96 scenarios are considered to analyze the trend and range of future runoff. Ensemble prediction results reveal that (i) climate change plays a leading role in runoff variation; (ii) compared to the baseline values, peak flow would increase 36.6% and low flow would reduce 36.8% by the 2080s, which would result in flooding and drought risks in the future and (iii) every additional hectare of arable land would increase the water deficit by an average of 10.9 × 103 m3, implying that the arable land should be carefully expanded in the future. Results suggest that, to mitigate the impact of climate change, the rational control of arable land and the active promotion of irrigation efficiency are beneficial for water resources management and ecological environmental recovery.

scholarly journals Changes in water discharges of the Baltic states rivers in the 20th century and its relation to climate change

2007 ◽  
Vol 38 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 401-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Reihan ◽  
T. Koltsova ◽  
J. Kriauciuniene ◽  
L. Lizuma ◽  
D. Meilutyte-Barauskiene
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Baltic

The river discharge changes in three Baltic States and its relation to changes in the main climatic variables such as precipitation and air temperature were analyzed using observed data and methods of empirical statistical analysis. The study is important for the development of efficient water resource management systems and validation of climate change impact models. The application of the Mann-Kendall test reveals that a significant increasing trend in winter air temperature and precipitation was determined for all 3 investigated periods (1923–2003, 1941–2003 and 1961–2003). The same trend was found for the winter and annual discharge time series. No trend was observed for the spring, summer and autumn seasonal streamflow and summer low flow series for most of the Baltic region. In general the relation between the main meteorological and hydrological parameters and the tendency in river discharge trends is common for all of the Baltic States, and might be associated with the regional impacts of global climate change.

scholarly journals Impact of projected 21st century climate change on basin hydrology and runoff in the Delaware River Basin, USA

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy W. Hawkins ◽  
Christopher J. Woltemade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Delaware River ◽  
Winter Runoff ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrologic Conditions

Abstract A gridded hydrologic model was developed to assess the impact of projected climate change on future Delaware River Basin (DRB) hydrology. The DRB serves as a water supply resource to over 15 million people. Model evaluation statistics for both water year and monthly runoff projections indicate that the model is able to capture well the hydrologic conditions of the DRB. Basinwide, annual temperature is projected to increase from 2.0 to 5.5 °C by 2080–2099. Correspondingly, potential and actual evapotranspiration, precipitation, rainfall, and runoff are all projected to increase, while snowfall, snow water storage, snowmelt, and subsurface moisture are all projected to decrease. By 2080–2099, basinwide summer subsurface moisture is projected to decrease 7–18% due to increased evapotranspiration, while winter runoff is projected to increase 15–43% due to increased precipitation and snowmelt and a conversion of snowfall to rainfall. Significant spatial variability in future changes to hydrologic parameters exists across the DRB. Changes in the timing and amount of future runoff and other hydrologic conditions need to be considered for future water resource management.

scholarly journals A Study on the Relationship between Climate Change and Peak Discharge in Sarawak River Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-28 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.Y. Chiew ◽  
O.S. Selaman ◽  
N.R. Afshar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Return Period ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrologic Analysis ◽  
Rate Of Decline ◽  
Earth’S Climate

These Earth's climate is getting warmer, and the signs are everywhere. Abnormal river discharge is one of the impacts that can be found in local scale. This endangering condition leads to the necessary attention on river basin in Sarawak, Malaysia and hence gives birth to this study. The objective of this study is to examine the existence of climate change on Sungai Sarawak River Basin through a hydrologic analysis of river discharge of three water level stations: Station Rayu, Station Git and Station Buan Bidi. The methods applied are mass-curve coupled with Gumbel’s graphical statistical method and annual hydrograph. Mass curve plotted shows the deviation of cumulative peak discharge from its original trend with Stations Rayu, Git and Buan Bidi started straying since years 1998, 2001 and 2004 respectively. After breakpoint, Gumbel’s graphical statistical method for chance percent evaluation clearly implies the chance percent for all (exception for Station Buan Bidi) discharges has decreased throughout the years. Whereas Gumbel’s graphical statistical method for return period evaluation suggested an extension of return period after the transition year (exception for Station Rayu). Two graphical methods pointed to the same direction – rate of decline shifting is greater for high flow as compared to low flow. Broadly speaking, precipitation has not much effect on the discharge variation according to annual hydrographs plotted. However, an obvious decrease in monthly average discharge throughout 18 years was found after change at Station Rayu. This support the climate change fact of “dry getting drier”. Water shrinkage in Sarawak River Basin is expected to be experienced frequently in the future.

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