scholarly journals Impact of projected 21st century climate change on basin hydrology and runoff in the Delaware River Basin, USA

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy W. Hawkins ◽  
Christopher J. Woltemade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Delaware River ◽  
Winter Runoff ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Monthly Runoff ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Hydrologic Conditions

Abstract A gridded hydrologic model was developed to assess the impact of projected climate change on future Delaware River Basin (DRB) hydrology. The DRB serves as a water supply resource to over 15 million people. Model evaluation statistics for both water year and monthly runoff projections indicate that the model is able to capture well the hydrologic conditions of the DRB. Basinwide, annual temperature is projected to increase from 2.0 to 5.5 °C by 2080–2099. Correspondingly, potential and actual evapotranspiration, precipitation, rainfall, and runoff are all projected to increase, while snowfall, snow water storage, snowmelt, and subsurface moisture are all projected to decrease. By 2080–2099, basinwide summer subsurface moisture is projected to decrease 7–18% due to increased evapotranspiration, while winter runoff is projected to increase 15–43% due to increased precipitation and snowmelt and a conversion of snowfall to rainfall. Significant spatial variability in future changes to hydrologic parameters exists across the DRB. Changes in the timing and amount of future runoff and other hydrologic conditions need to be considered for future water resource management.

scholarly journals Uncertainty Impacts of Climate Change and Downscaling Methods on Future Runoff Projections in the Biliu River Basin

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 2130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhu ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Wu ◽  
Qi ◽  
Fu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Liaoning Province ◽  
Lower Envelope ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the uncertainties in the projected future runoff resulting from climate change and downscaling methods in the Biliu River basin (Liaoning province, Northeast China). One widely used hydrological model SWAT, 11 Global Climate Models (GCMs), two statistical downscaling methods, four dynamical downscaling datasets, and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are applied to construct 22 scenarios to project runoff. Hydrology variables in historical and future periods are compared to investigate their variations, and the uncertainties associated with climate change and downscaling methods are also analyzed. The results show that future temperatures will increase under all scenarios and will increase more under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5, while future precipitation will increase under 16 scenarios. Future runoff tends to decrease under 13 out of the 22 scenarios. We also found that the mean runoff changes ranging from −38.38% to 33.98%. Future monthly runoff increases in May, June, September, and October and decreases in all the other months. Different downscaling methods have little impact on the lower envelope of runoff, and they mainly impact the upper envelope of the runoff. The impact of climate change can be regarded as the main source of the runoff uncertainty during the flood period (from May to September), while the impact of downscaling methods can be regarded as the main source during the non-flood season (from October to April). This study separated the uncertainty impact of different factors, and the results could provide very important information for water resource management.

scholarly journals Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 709-725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina E. Bennett ◽  
Theodore J. Bohn ◽  
Kurt Solander ◽  
Nathan G. McDowell ◽  
Chonggang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
San Juan ◽  
Forest Disturbances ◽  
San Juan River ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate–disturbance scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

scholarly journals Analyzing the impacts of climate and land use changes on the water quality in the 3S river basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 125-131
Author(s):  
Loi Thi Pham ◽  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
The Impact

Assessing water resources under the influence of environmental change have gained attentions of scientists. The objective of this study was to analyze the impacts of land use change and climate change on water resources in terms quantity and quality in the 3S basin in the period 1981–2008 by using hydrological modeling (SWAT model). The results showed that streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P) tend to increase under individual and combined effects of climate change and land use change. In addition, the impact of land use change on the flow was smaller than the climate change impact. However, water balance components and water quality were equally affected by two factors of climate change and land use change. In general, the results of this study could serve as a reference for water resource management and planning in the river basin.

Freshwater, climate change and adaptation in the Ganges River Basin

Water Policy ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather R. Hosterman ◽  
Peter G. McCornick ◽  
Elizabeth J. Kistin ◽  
Bharat Sharma ◽  
Luna Bharati
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
Ganges River ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
The Ganges ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ganges River Basin ◽  
Growth Economic

Climate change is one of the drivers of change in the Ganges River Basin, together with population growth, economic development and water management practices. These changing circumstances have a significant impact on key social and economic sectors of the basin, largely through changes in water quantity, quality and timing of availability. This paper evaluates the impact of water on changing circumstances in three sectors of the Ganges Basin – agriculture, ecosystems and energy. Given the inherent interconnectedness of these core sectors and the cross-cutting impact of changing circumstances on water resources, we argue that adaptation should not be viewed as a separate initiative, but rather as a goal and perspective incorporated into every level of planning and decision making. Adaptation to changing circumstances will need to be closely linked to water resource management and will require significant collaboration across the sectors.

scholarly journals Climate change and climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrina E. Bennett ◽  
Theodore Bohn ◽  
Kurt Solander ◽  
Nathan G. McDowell ◽  
Chonggang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
San Juan ◽  
Forest Disturbances ◽  
San Juan River ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the Southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances at the basin scale, and none at the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change for a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly-calibrated (Nash Sutcliff 0.80) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce ET and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbances scenarios is at least 6–11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone, and for forested zones of the San Juan River basin streamflow is 15–21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of lower water availability for forested headwater systems to the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modelling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

scholarly journals Multi-model ensemble projection of mean and extreme streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin under the impact of climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarfaraz Alam ◽  
Md. Mostafa Ali ◽  
Ahmmed Zulfiqar Rahaman ◽  
Zahidul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Brahmaputra River ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The streamflow of Brahmaputra River Basin is vital for sustainable socioeconomic development of the Ganges delta. Frequent floods and droughts in the past decades indicate the susceptibility of the region to climate variability. Although there are multiple studies investigating the basin's future water availability, most of those are based on limited climate change scenarios despite the wide range of uncertainties in different climate model projections. This study aims to provide a better estimation of projected future streamflow for a combination of 18 climate change scenarios. We develop a hydrologic model of the basin and simulate the future water availability based on these climate change scenarios. Our results show that the simulated mean annual, mean seasonal and annual maximum streamflow of the basin is expected to increase in future. By the end of the 21st century, the projected increase in mean annual, mean dry season, mean wet season, and annual maximum streamflow is about 25, 178, 11, and 22%, respectively. We also demonstrate that this projected streamflow can be expressed as a multivariate linear regression of projected changes in temperature and precipitation in the basin and would be very useful for policy makers to make informed decision regarding climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Predicting the impact of climate change in Srepok river basin by LARS-WG model with CMIP5 scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. first
Author(s):  
Thi Thao Nhi Thi Thao ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Model Combining ◽  
Combining Data ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
The Impact

Global warming has significantly challenged the natural environment and livelihood conditions. Understanding potential future changes of climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, is critical for water resource management in this region. This study proposed an approach to applying LARS-WG model in CMIP5 scenarios, 9 monitoring stations with 25-year series of dately data used for calibration and validation, which were the input data of the model. Combining data from 5 outputs of general periodic model (GCMs) for the periods 2021–2020, 2041–2060, and 2061– 2080, the results showed that the CMIP5 scenarios could be used successfully in the LARS-WG model and the model worked well under the climatic conditions of the Srepok river basin (Central Highlands of Vietnam). Comparing future weather scenarios with current weather data showed that warmer transitions and reduced rainfall would be generally in the future. Future temperature and precipitation trends showed an increase in both the magnitude and frequency of extreme events. So the affects of climate change are enormous on the management of related projects. Water resources need to be considered a lot in the local decision-making.

River discharge in the Kone River basin (Central Vietnam) under climate change by applying the BTOPMC distributed hydrological model

2010 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thi Thanh Hang Phan ◽  
Kengo Sunada ◽  
Satoru Oishi ◽  
Yasushi Sakamoto
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Central Vietnam ◽  
The Impact ◽  
A1b Scenario

The impact of climate change on local discharge variability is investigated in the Kone River basin located in Central Vietnam. In this study, historical and predicted river discharge trends are discussed. The predicted discharge is simulated using the BTOPMC model based on the A1B scenario as a scientific basis for socioeconomic development and integrated water resource management in the Kone River basin, during the period 2011–2034. During the period 1979–2007, annual discharge in the Kone River basin trended upwards slightly. However, both maximum and minimum discharges declined. The results of the predicted discharge under the A1B scenario suggest that river flow will increase slightly in the Kone River basin in the future. Both annual and flood season discharges will tend to increase during the period 2011–2034. In contrast, discharge during the low flow season will tend to decrease over the same period. For the period 2011–2034, the discharge volume in the Kone River will increase by 3%, in comparison with the period 1980–1999. Water volume will decrease by about 18.6% during the flood season and increase by approximately 90.0% during the low flow season relative to the period 1980–1999.

scholarly journals SIMULAÇÃO HIDROLÓGICA FERRAMENTA PARA GESTÃO DOS RECURSOS HÍDRICOS EM FUNÇÃO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA BACIA DO RIO RIACHÃO, MG, BRASIL

Nativa ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (6) ◽  
pp. 718
Author(s):  
Rafael Alexandre Sá ◽  
Marcos Koiti Kondo ◽  
Edson De Oliveira Vieira ◽  
Silvânio Rodrigues Dos Santos ◽  
Nayara Paula Andrade Vieira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Hydrological Simulation ◽  
The Impact

A simulação hidrológica de bacias hidrográficas tem se tornado uma ferramenta importante de planejamento e gestão de recursos hídricos, projetando-se inclusive a disponibilidade hídrica a partir das mudanças climáticas. Dessa forma, objetivou-se avaliar a eficiência do modelo hidrológico SWAT na simulação da vazão da bacia hidrográfica do rio Riachão, no Norte de Minas Gerais, sob impacto de cenários alternativos de elevação da temperatura média do ar. O modelo SWAT foi ajustado para o período de 01/01/2008 a 31/12/2014 e calibrado com os dados das vazões hidrometradas obtendo valores do coeficiente de eficiência Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) de 0,74 e 0,79 e tendência percentual (PBIAS) 15,45% e 16,72%, nas fases de calibração e validação, respectivamente. A disponibilidade de água superficial da bacia hidrográfica para comparação dos cenários foi calculada por meio da curva de permanência da vazão de referência Q90, obtendo-se o valor de 0,081 m3 s-1 para o modelo calibrado. Os cenários de aumento da temperatura média da bacia em 1,5; 2,0; 3,0; 4,0 e 5,0 °C levaram ao decréscimo da Q90 em 7,66; 8,98; 10,49; 14,06 e 17,76%, respectivamente.Palavras-chave: escoamento superficial; modelo SWAT; cenários climáticos; gerenciamento de recursos hídricos. HYDROLOGICAL SIMULATION TOOL FOR MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES IN THE FUNCTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE RIACHÃO RIVER BASIN, MG, BRAZIL ABSTRACT: The hydrological simulation of watersheds becomes a major tool for planning and management of water resources, including water availability prediction from global climate change. Thus, the objective was to evaluate the efficiency of the SWAT hydrologic model to simulate the stream flow of Riachão river basin, North of Minas Gerais State, Brazil, under the impact of alternative scenarios with the increase in mean surface air temperature. The SWAT model was adjusted for 1/1/2008 to 12/31/2014 period and calibrated with data measurement obtaining values the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.74 and 0.79 and percent bias (PBIAS) of 15.45 and 16.72% was found to calibration and validation period, respectively. The surface water availability in the hydrographic basin was calculated by Q90 streamflow, with calibrated value of 0.081 m³s-1. The scenarios of increase in mean air temperature (1.5, 2.0, 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0 ºC) reduced Q90 by 7.66, 8.98, 10.49, 14.06 and 17.76%, respectively.Keywords: runoff; SWAT model; climate scenarios; water resource management.

scholarly journals Application of SWAT in Hydrological Simulation of Complex Mountainous River Basin (Part II: Climate Change Impact Assessment)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1548
Author(s):  
Suresh Marahatta ◽  
Deepak Aryal ◽  
Laxmi Prasad Devkota ◽  
Utsav Bhattarai ◽  
Dibesh Shrestha
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Mountainous River

This study aims at analysing the impact of climate change (CC) on the river hydrology of a complex mountainous river basin—the Budhigandaki River Basin (BRB)—using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model that was calibrated and validated in Part I of this research. A relatively new approach of selecting global climate models (GCMs) for each of the two selected RCPs, 4.5 (stabilization scenario) and 8.5 (high emission scenario), representing four extreme cases (warm-wet, cold-wet, warm-dry, and cold-dry conditions), was applied. Future climate data was bias corrected using a quantile mapping method. The bias-corrected GCM data were forced into the SWAT model one at a time to simulate the future flows of BRB for three 30-year time windows: Immediate Future (2021–2050), Mid Future (2046–2075), and Far Future (2070–2099). The projected flows were compared with the corresponding monthly, seasonal, annual, and fractional differences of extreme flows of the simulated baseline period (1983–2012). The results showed that future long-term average annual flows are expected to increase in all climatic conditions for both RCPs compared to the baseline. The range of predicted changes in future monthly, seasonal, and annual flows shows high uncertainty. The comparative frequency analysis of the annual one-day-maximum and -minimum flows shows increased high flows and decreased low flows in the future. These results imply the necessity for design modifications in hydraulic structures as well as the preference of storage over run-of-river water resources development projects in the study basin from the perspective of climate resilience.

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