scholarly journals VOLATILITY IN STOCK RETURN SERIES OF VIETNAM STOCK MARKET

2011 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-21
Author(s):  
Vinh Xuan Vo ◽  
Ngan Thi Kim Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Financial Policies ◽  
Long Span ◽  
Return Variance ◽  
Daily Stock Returns ◽  
Icss Algorithm

This paper studies the features of the stock return volatility using GARCH models and the presence of structural breaks in return variance of VNIndex in the Vietnam stock market by using the iterated cumulative sums of squares (ICSS) algorithm. Using a long-span data, GARCH and GARCH in mean (GARCH-M) models seems to be effective in describing daily stock returns’ features. About structural breaks, when applying ICSS to standardized residuals filtered from GARCH (1, 1) model, the number of volatility shifts significantly decreases in comparison with the raw return series. Events corresponding to those breaks and altering the volatility pattern of stock return are found to be country-specific. Not any shifts are found during global crisis period. Further evidence also reveals that when sudden shifts are taken into account in the GARCH models, volatility persistence remarkably reduces and that the conditional variance of stock return is much affected by past trend of observed shocks and variance. Our results have important implications regarding advising investors on decisions concerning pricing equity, portfolio investment and management, hedging and forecasting. Moreover, it is also helpful for policy-makers in making and promulgating the financial policies.

scholarly journals Structural Breaks and Volatility Persistence of Stock Returns: Evidence from the US and UK Equity Markets

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (6) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Chikashi Tsuji
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Volatility Persistence ◽  
The Us ◽  
Parameter Values

This paper quantitatively investigates the effects of structural breaks on stock return volatility persistence by using the US and UK stock market index return data. Applying two kinds of representative univariate GARCH models of standard GARCH and EGARCH models, we derive the following interesting findings. (1) First, we find that for both the US and UK stock market returns, the volatility persistence parameter values of standard GARCH models decrease when structural breaks are taken into account. (2) Second, we further reveal that for both the US and UK stock market returns, the volatility persistence parameter values of EGARCH models again decline when structural breaks are taken into consideration.

scholarly journals The Stock Market and Exchange Rates in Five South Asian Countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Firmansyah Firmansyah ◽  
Shanty Oktavilia
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The composite price index and return of stocks are the important indicators, both as a measure of the company's portfolio performance, as well as an indicator of macroeconomic health and the aggregate investment. In addition, the stock prices are also influenced by macroeconomic variables and one of the most important is the exchange rates. The objective of this study is to determine the behavior of exchange rate affects the stock returns in Southeast Asia, pre and post of the 2008 world financial crisis. By employing the daily stock market return in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore more than seventeen years from 1 September 1999 to 31 March 2017, this study utilizes Engle-Granger error correction model and cointegration approach to investigate and compare the long and short run of the structural effect of the exchange rates on stock returns. To differentiate the behavior of variables between pre and post occurrence of 2008 world financial crisis, the estimation of the model is divided into two periods. This study finds that the exchange rate growth influence the stock returns in the long and short run, and proves that the cointegration between the two variables exist in all countries. The study has the implication that the exchange rate, which the one of the fundamental measures of a country's macroeconomic health, is an important determinant of influencing stock return, even its effects are responded by the stock return in one day.

scholarly journals THE VOLATILITY TRANSMISSION OF MAIN GLOBAL STOCK'S RETURN TO INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 229-256
Author(s):  
Linda Karlina Sari ◽  
Noer Azam Achsani ◽  
Bagus Sartono
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Symmetric Model ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Return Volatility ◽  
Volatility Transmission ◽  
The Impact

Stock return volatility is a very interesting phenomenon because of its impact on global financial markets. For instance, an adverse shocks in one country’s market can be transmitted to other countries’ market through a particular mechanism of transmission, causing the related markets to experience financial instability as well (Liu et al., 1998). This paper aims to determine the best model to describe the volatility of stock returns, to identify asymmetric effect of such volatility, as well as to explore the transmission of stocks return volatilities in seven countries to Indonesia’s stock market over the period 1990-2016, on a daily basis. Modeling of stock return volatility uses symmetric and asymmetric GARCH, while analysis of stock return volatility transmission utilizes Vector Autoregressive system. This study found that the asymmetric model of GARCH, resulted from fitting the right model for all seven stock markets, provides a better estimation in portraying stock return volatility than symmetric model. Moreover, the model can reveal the presence of asymmetric effects on those seven stock markets. Other finding shows that Hong Kong and Singapore markets play dominant roles in influencing volatility return of Indonesia’s stock market. In addition, the degree of interdependence between Indonesia’s and foreign stock market increased substantially after the 2007 global financial crisis, as indicated by a drastic increase of the impact of stock return volatilities in the US and UK market on the volatility of Indonesia’s stock return.

scholarly journals The effects of policies changes on return and volatility in Vietnamese stock market

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-84
Author(s):  
Thi-Du Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Regulatory Reform ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Empirical Results ◽  
The Third ◽  
Egarch Model

Using the stock index data of financial sector spanned from January 2, 2009 to December 31, 2014, this study examines the effects of some policies on stock returns and volatility in Vietnamese stock market. The empirical results of EGARCH model reveal that two policies, namely, M&A and VAMC have an significantly positive impact on stock returns but they do not represent any effects on stock volatility. The third policy, regulatory reform, does not show any affection on stock return but it has an impact on the stock volatility. It implies that investors should adjust and alter their portfolio accordingly when changing policies. Besides, policymaker needs to know when they should prioritize which policy to be issued because some policies sometimes can hurt the stock market if the stock market is efficient.

scholarly journals Derivative Trading and Spot Market Volatility: Evidence from Indian Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 23-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dhanya Alex ◽  
Roshna Varghese
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Spot Market ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Indian Market ◽  
Stock Volatility ◽  
Asymmetric Behaviour ◽  
Indian Stock Market

The present study tries to estimate the effect of introduction of individual stock derivatives on the underlying stock volatility in Indian stock market. To estimate the effect of introduction of derivatives on stock market, GARCH family models which are known for their ability to model volatility. The return series of the ten companies were tested using methods like, unit root test and descriptive statistics to confirm that GARCH models could be used. Using these models, the asymmetric nature of stock returns and the volatility of stock returns on the introduction of derivatives are checked. The results reveal that the introduction of derivatives has decreased the volatility of the underlying stock returns. It was also found that most of the stock returns show asymmetric behaviour.

scholarly journals Comparison of News Impacts on Sectoral Stock Returns during the COVID-19 Pandemic in Turkey

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-46
Author(s):  
Metin Tetik
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Garch Models ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Finance Industry ◽  
Return Data

This study examines how the volatility of the sectoral stock returns within Borsa İstanbul are affected during the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis uses daily stock return data for four main sector indices: services, finance, industry, and technology. The sample period of the study covers 03.03.2015–11.03.2021, and 12.03.2020-03.04.2021 is separately analyzed for the COVID-19 period. When E-GARCH models and news impact curves are analyzed, it is found that the services sector stock returns volatility differs from other sectoral stock returns.

scholarly journals REAL STOCK RETURNS, INFLATIONARY TRENDS AND REAL ACTIVITY: Evidence from Malaysia

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 327
Author(s):  
M. Shabri Abdul Majid
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Positive Real ◽  
Real Activity ◽  
Fisher Hypothesis ◽  
The Relationship

This study explores the relationship between real stock returns and inflationary trends in the Malaysian economy. It attempts to test for the relationship between real stock return and inflation in light of Fisher hypothesis that asserts the independence of real stock return and inflation and Fama’s (1981) proxy effect framework which states that the negative real stock returns-inflation is indirectly explained by a negative real economic activity-inflation and a positive real stock returns-real economicactivity relationships. The finding shows that real stock returns are independent of inflationary trends in accordance with the Fisher hypothesis, which implies that the Malaysian stock market provides a good hedge against inflation. The Fama’s proxy hypothesis is then tested to check for the consistency of the relationships. The positive relationship between inflation and real economic activity and the positive relationship betweenreal stock returns and real economic activity that totally contradicts the Fama’s proxy hypothesis however are found, to some extent, be consistent with the explanation of conventional macroeconomic theories of the Philip’s curve.

scholarly journals Asset growth and stock return: evidence in the Brazilian market

2018 ◽  
Vol 29 (78) ◽  
pp. 418-434
Author(s):  
Márcio André Veras Machado ◽  
Robert William Faff
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Operating Performance ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Capital Investments ◽  
Limits To Arbitrage ◽  
Asset Growth

Abstract Empirical evidence suggests that firms which have experienced fast growth, through increased external funding and by making capital investments and acquisitions, tend to show bad operating performance and lower stock returns, whereas firms that have experienced contraction, through divestiture, share repurchase and debt retirement, tend to show good operating performance and higher stock returns. So, this study aimed to analyze the relationship between asset growth and stock return in the Brazilian stock market, and it tested the hypothesis that asset growth is negatively related to future stock return. To do this, the methodology was divided into 3 steps: verifying 1) if asset growth anomaly exists; 2) if this relation may be explained by the investment friction hypothesis and/or by the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis; and 3) if asset growth is a risk factor or mispricing. In addition, the analysis was carried out both at a portfolio level and an individual assets level. The sample included all the non-financial firms listed at B3 from June 1997 to June 2014. As for the main results, this study found that the asset growth effect exists, both at the portfolio level and the individual assets level, although it is sensitive to the proxy. About the effect’s materiality, this study concluded that the asset growth effect is not economically relevant, since it is not observed in big firms, regardless of the proxy used, a fact that makes it difficult to explore this effect. Another finding is that the asset growth effect may not be related to the limits-to-arbitrage hypothesis and to the financial constraint hypothesis; also, this effect may be considered a risk factor, suggesting that the investment effect documented in the Brazilian stock market may be explained by the rational asset pricing perspective. Therefore, capital market professionals should take into account the asset growth factor in asset pricing models for better investment risk assessment.

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