Determining the Return Volatility of Major Stock Markets Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Applying the EGARCH Model

With this study, we aim to determine the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the return volatility of the DJI, the DAX, the FTSE100 and the CAC40 stock indexes. We take return volatility between 1st January 2019 and 17th July 2020 and split it into two separate periods - before the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak and the first wave of the ‘In-Pandemic’ period. Only the so-called first wave of the pandemic was chosen to avoid the influence of knowledge of possible vaccines and antiviral solutions. Data were analysed by using the exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model. Findings show excessive volatility in the major stock markets with short volatility persistence and the presence of leverage in returns during the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic outbreak. Moreover, during the pandemic period, positive shocks have been observed to have a greater effect than negative socks on the stock index return volatility.

The impact of MILA market-maker facility on volatility of the Colombian stock market

ABSTRACT In 2014, the Colombian Stock Exchange commenced the implementation of its market-maker facility (MMF), aiming at improving market efficiency. This paper examines the impact of the MMF program on three volatility-related aspects: volatility persistence, risk premium, and information asymmetry. This paper provides new insights about the anticipated outcomes of Mercados Integrados Latinoamericanos (MILA) reforms, specifically the MMF on the volatility of the Colombian stock market. This topic has not been fully addressed in the existing literature. This study, therefore, provides useful information for regulators and policy makers, in endeavors to address key issues raised during the World Economic Forum (WEF) of 2016. This paper poses a challenge to policy makers and stock market regulators in Colombia to revisit the reform program and address the factors limiting the effectiveness of market reforms. This paper provides justification for replicating the study to cover other MILA countries due to existing differences in some domestic market policies and structures. The paper employs conditional variance models for measuring volatility persistence, risk premia, and information asymmetry. The models are employed on the COLCAP stock index (Colombia) observed from January 17, 2008 to May 30, 2019. Observations are divided into two samples - pre- and post-MMF. This paper provides evidence of the impacts of the MMF reforms in the Colombian stock market. Specifically, the MMF seems to have an impact on the following aspects: (i) the magnitude in which current returns depend on previous returns has increased; (ii) investment portfolio returns, which are generally low, have declined after the MMF, leading to less risk compensation; (iii) the MMF does not seem to have affected the volatility of market returns and information asymmetry; (iv) volatility persistence increased in magnitude.

Modelling Petroleum Prices between Garch and Intergeated Garch, (Igarch)

In this paper, the comparison of using garch (1, 1) and intergrated garch, igarch (1, 1) models on petroleum prices will be examined. This time-varying variation of asset returns as the horizon widens about kurtosis and volatility persistence are calculated and the results shows that petroleum prices dynamics submits more to igarch (1, 1) than garch (1, 1) model.

Diagnostic of Innovations and Volatility Persistence in Emerging Markets

This paper aims to analyse the shocks and volatility persistence of both Islamic and conventional financial market, and the nature of the correlation between the two markets. The study uses Bivariate BEKK-GARCH(1,1) model in the examination of the shocks and volatility based on the daily prices of Dubai Islamic Capital Market (Sukuk index) and conventional Stock Market (DFM index).As a result, it documents that both Sukuk and stock market indices are affected by their own news and shows volatility persistence over the study period. The study also finds a negative correlation between the Sukuk and Stock market prices during the Dubai debt crisis which indicates that Islamic bonds are good portfolio diversifier. Our study seeks to define the nature of the correlation between the Sukuk market and the stock market using daily prices, unlike other studies that use returns. In addition, our empirical results might be valuable for investors and market makers to ensure a good portfolio diversification strategy.