Bayesian Updating of Transferred Household Travel Data

Vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is an important factor in the development of transportation plans, emission mitigation measures, and energy conservation policies. Therefore, estimation of VMT is a crucial task supporting such plans and policies. This research addresses the estimation of VMT in households owning multiple vehicles. This sector is expected to use vehicles differently from single-vehicle households because usage of any vehicle may depend on usage of other vehicles. Previous studies concluded that there is a substitution effect between usages of two vehicles (i.e., greater usage of one vehicle lessens usage of the other). In view of more recent changes in sociodemographic structure, the problem was revisited with the 2001 National Household Travel Survey database. The proposed VMT model is a system of simultaneous equations. Each equation explains the VMT for one of the household's vehicles. The three-stage least-squares method was used to estimate the coefficients. A case study of two-vehicle households was investigated. The resulting model shows that VMT can be explained by variables such as the vehicle's newness, number of potential car users in a household, and household income. Surprisingly, the results show not a substitution effect but a spilling effect. The VMT of the first vehicle does not depend on how much the second vehicle is driven. However, increased use of the first vehicle tends to spill over and increase the use of the second one. Some explanation of this behavior shift is provided.

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Independence assumptions and Bayesian updating

Artificial Intelligence ◽

10.1016/0004-3702(85)90043-8 ◽

1985 ◽

Vol 25 (1) ◽

pp. 95-99 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Clark Glymour

Keyword(s):

Bayesian Updating ◽

Independence Assumptions

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Dynamic consistency, valuable information and subjective beliefs

Economic Theory ◽

10.1007/s00199-021-01351-y ◽

2021 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Spyros Galanis

Keyword(s):

Value Of Information ◽

Single Agent ◽

Bayesian Updating ◽

Dynamic Consistency ◽

Decision Problems ◽

Backward Induction ◽

Subjective Expected Utility ◽

Trading Behavior ◽

Subjective Beliefs ◽

Convex Preferences

AbstractAmbiguity sensitive preferences must fail either Consequentialism or Dynamic Consistency (DC), two properties that are compatible with subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating, while forming the basis of backward induction and dynamic programming. We examine the connection between these properties in a general environment of convex preferences over monetary acts and find that, far from being incompatible, they are connected in an economically meaningful way. In single-agent decision problems, positive value of information characterises one direction of DC. We propose a weakening of DC and show that one direction is equivalent to weakly valuable information, whereas the other characterises the Bayesian updating of the subjective beliefs which are revealed by trading behavior.

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Three doors anomaly, “should I stay, or should I go”: an artefactual field experiment

Theory and Decision ◽

10.1007/s11238-021-09809-0 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Andrea Morone ◽

Rocco Caferra ◽

Alessia Casamassima ◽

Alessandro Cascavilla ◽

Paola Tiranzoni

Keyword(s):

Field Experiment ◽

Experimental Evidence ◽

Bayesian Updating ◽

Anomalous Behavior ◽

Status Quo ◽

Experimental Results ◽

Illusion Of Control ◽

Optimal Decision ◽

Status Quo Bias ◽

The Impact

AbstractThis work aims to identify and quantify the biases behind the anomalous behavior of people when they deal with the Three Doors dilemma, which is a really simple but counterintuitive game. Carrying out an artefactual field experiment and proposing eight different treatments to isolate the anomalies, we provide new interesting experimental evidence on the reasons why subjects fail to take the optimal decision. According to the experimental results, we are able to quantify the size and the impact of three main biases that explain the anomalous behavior of participants: Bayesian updating, illusion of control and status quo bias.

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