I'm Not Sure What to Think About Them: Non-Bayesian Updating for Naive Present-Biased Players

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua S. Gans ◽  
Peter Landry
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Updating

scholarly journals Dynamic consistency, valuable information and subjective beliefs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spyros Galanis
Keyword(s):  
Value Of Information ◽  
Single Agent ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Dynamic Consistency ◽  
Decision Problems ◽  
Backward Induction ◽  
Subjective Expected Utility ◽  
Trading Behavior ◽  
Subjective Beliefs ◽  
Convex Preferences

AbstractAmbiguity sensitive preferences must fail either Consequentialism or Dynamic Consistency (DC), two properties that are compatible with subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating, while forming the basis of backward induction and dynamic programming. We examine the connection between these properties in a general environment of convex preferences over monetary acts and find that, far from being incompatible, they are connected in an economically meaningful way. In single-agent decision problems, positive value of information characterises one direction of DC. We propose a weakening of DC and show that one direction is equivalent to weakly valuable information, whereas the other characterises the Bayesian updating of the subjective beliefs which are revealed by trading behavior.

scholarly journals Three doors anomaly, “should I stay, or should I go”: an artefactual field experiment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Morone ◽  
Rocco Caferra ◽  
Alessia Casamassima ◽  
Alessandro Cascavilla ◽  
Paola Tiranzoni
Keyword(s):  
Field Experiment ◽  
Experimental Evidence ◽  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Anomalous Behavior ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Experimental Results ◽  
Illusion Of Control ◽  
Optimal Decision ◽  
Status Quo Bias ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis work aims to identify and quantify the biases behind the anomalous behavior of people when they deal with the Three Doors dilemma, which is a really simple but counterintuitive game. Carrying out an artefactual field experiment and proposing eight different treatments to isolate the anomalies, we provide new interesting experimental evidence on the reasons why subjects fail to take the optimal decision. According to the experimental results, we are able to quantify the size and the impact of three main biases that explain the anomalous behavior of participants: Bayesian updating, illusion of control and status quo bias.

Bayesian updating of slope reliability in spatially variable soils with in-situ measurements

2018 ◽  
Vol 239 ◽  
pp. 310-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shui-Hua Jiang ◽  
Iason Papaioannou ◽  
Daniel Straub
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
In Situ Measurements

Bayesian Updating of Transferred Household Travel Data

2008 ◽  
Vol 2049 (1) ◽  
pp. 111-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongping Zhang ◽  
Abolfazl (Kouros) Mohammadian
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Updating ◽  
Household Travel

Designing a Transferable Predictive Model for Online Learning using a Bayesian Updating Approach

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Wanli Xing ◽  
Dongping Du ◽  
Ali Bakhshi ◽  
Chiu Kuo Chun ◽  
Hanxiang Du
Keyword(s):  
Online Learning ◽  
Predictive Model ◽  
Bayesian Updating
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