Availability of Travel Forecasting Methods and Data for Air Quality Planning in Developing Countries

Many developing-country cities are experiencing severe air quality problems as a result of rapidly increasing vehicle use and highly polluting vehicles. Yet, data availability and modeling capabilities to support travel and emissions forecasting in developing countries are limited. One result is that policies that affect travel demand cannot be properly evaluated or are overlooked as solutions to air quality problems. Exploratory research to determine the need for and feasibility of developing a “sketch plan” travel forecasting method that can be applied in developing-country cities is described. Outreach to practitioners and researchers was undertaken to identify the extent of existing transportation data availability and forecasting capabilities. The research revealed a broad range of capabilities. Less-developed countries—including most countries in Africa and some in Asia and Latin America—often have no formalized forecasting approach, little data (which may be of suspect quality), and no institutional structure to support data collection or forecasting. Some of the more developed countries—especially in Southeast Asia and Latin America—have capabilities approaching or equal to those of western countries. The results suggest that, in many developing countries, there is a need for as well as interest in a simple tool for forecasting travel demand that minimizes data inputs and user requirements. Existing sketch-plan methods used in developed countries were also reviewed for potential application to developing countries. Because of significant differences between developed- and developing-country contexts and issues, however, a tool appropriate for developing-country cities probably would need to be developed from scratch.