An Analysis of COVID-19 Mortality at the Local Authority Level in England
This study analyses COVID-19 mortality at the local authority level in England. The dependent variable is the age-standardised COVID-19 mortality rate. Two separate analyses are reported: one using untransformed variables, and one using logged variables (where appropriate). In the former, five variables explain 73% of the variance in COVID-19 mortality rate: cumulative confirmed cases rate, population density, % black or Asian, average household size, and a deprivation index. In the latter, four variables explain 72% of the variance in log COVID-19 mortality rate: log cumulative confirmed cases rate, log % black or Asian, average household size, and the deprivation index. (A health index does not reach statistical significance in either analysis, most likely because it is somewhat crude and the dependent variable is age-standardised.) Cumulative confirmed cases rate, average household size and % black or Asian are the strongest and most consistent predictors of COVID-19 mortality.