High-Precision Bayesian Modeling of Samples Susceptible to Inbuilt Age

Radiocarbon ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 56 (1) ◽  
pp. 83-94 ◽  
Author(s):  
M W Dee ◽  
C Bronk Ramsey
Keyword(s):  
High Precision ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Outlier Analysis ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Modeling Approaches

Radiocarbon dates on samples susceptible to inbuilt age are common in the chronological record of many archaeological and environmental sites. Indeed, fragments of charcoal and wood are sometimes the only materials sufficiently well preserved for dating. However, where high-precision estimates arc required the extra uncertainty associated with such measurements often renders them unusable. This article tests three Bayesian modeling approaches that are designed to tackle this problem. The findings of our study suggest that successful corrections can be made for the inherent age offsets. The most effective and versatile approach was based on a version of outlier analysis. It is hoped that this method will become more widely employed and enable samples susceptible to inbuilt age to be included in high-precision chronologies.

Radiocarbon Dating the Iroquoian Occupation of Northern New York

2019 ◽  
Vol 84 (4) ◽  
pp. 748-761 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy J. Abel ◽  
Jessica L. Vavrasek ◽  
John P. Hart
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Bayesian Analysis ◽  
High Precision ◽  
Radiocarbon Dating ◽  
Faunal Remains ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates

The results of Bayesian analysis using 43 new high-precision AMS radiocarbon dates on maize, faunal remains, and ceramic residues from 18 precontact Iroquoian village sites in Northern New York are presented. Once thought to span AD 1350–1500, the period of occupation suggested by the modeling is approximately AD 1450–1510. This late placement now makes clear that Iroquoians arrived in the region approximately 100 years later than previously thought. This result halves the time in which population growth and significant changes in settlement occurred. The new chronology allows us to better match these events within a broader Northeast temporal framework.

scholarly journals Ground Sloth Extinction and Human Occupation at Gruta Del Indio, Argentina

Radiocarbon ◽  
1997 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 693-700 ◽  
Author(s):  
Austin Long ◽  
Paul S. Martin ◽  
Humberto A. Lagiglia
Keyword(s):  
High Precision ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Human Occupation ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Significant Time ◽  
Ground Sloth ◽  
Ground Sloths ◽  
Temporal Overlap

A new set of radiocarbon dates from a rockshelter in Mendoza, Argentina addresses the question of the temporal overlap between the presence of an unidentified extinct ground sloth (cf., Mylodontidae) and evidence of human activity. Dung balls on the cave floor, evidently deposited by sloth, are overlain by charcoal, apparently of cultural origin. 14C dates, mostly on charcoal and dung from this shelter, calibrated using recently published curves, as well as the stratigraphy of the deposits from which the samples were collected, suggest that any co-occurrence of humans and ground sloths in this region was brief. In contrast, the single date on mylodon dermal ossicles from this shelter suggests significant time overlap. Replication of this date as well as obtaining new high-precision 14C analyses from this site will be the next priority.

scholarly journals Chronology of the Early Bronze Age in the Southern Levant: New Analysis for a High Chronology

Radiocarbon ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 54 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 525-566 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johanna Regev ◽  
Pierre De Miroschedji ◽  
Raphael Greenberg ◽  
Eliot Braun ◽  
Zvi Greenhut ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bronze Age ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Early Bronze Age ◽  
Southern Levant ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
The Given

The chronology of the Early Bronze Age (EBA) in the southern Levant and the synchronization between the sites, considering seriation and radiocarbon dates, have shown large inconsistencies and disagreement. We have assembled 42014C dates, most of them previously published and a few provided directly by the excavators. The dates have been re-evaluated on the basis of their archaeological context and using analytical criteria. Bayesian modeling has been applied to the selected dates in relation to the given seriation of the EBA subperiods (EB I, II III, IV). Sites with 2 or more sequential sub-phases were individually modeled in order to define the transitions between the subperiods. The new chronology indicates that the EB I–II transition occurred site-dependently between 3200–2900 BC, with EB II–III around 2900 BC, and EB III–IV ∼2500 BC.

scholarly journals TIMING THE EMERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF ARABLE FARMING IN SOUTHEASTERN NORWAY BY USING SUMMED PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION OF RADIOCARBON DATES AND A BAYESIAN AGE MODEL

Radiocarbon ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 1-22
Author(s):  
Steinar Solheim
Keyword(s):  
Iron Age ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
Early Iron Age ◽  
Late Neolithic ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Arable Farming ◽  
Age Model

ABSTRACT The paper explores the emergence and development of arable farming in southeastern Norway by compiling and analyzing directly dated cereals from archaeological contexts. By using summed probability distributions of radiocarbon dates and Bayesian modeling, the paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of the directly dated evidence for farming in the region. The models provide a more precise temporal resolution to the development than hitherto presented. The results demonstrate that the introduction of arable farming to southeastern Norway was a long-term development including several steps. Three different stages are pointed out as important in the process of establishing arable farming: the Early and Middle Neolithic, the Late Neolithic, and the Early Iron Age.

scholarly journals Revealing Neurocomputational Mechanisms of Reinforcement Learning and Decision-Making With the hBayesDM Package

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 24-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Woo-Young Ahn ◽  
Nathaniel Haines ◽  
Lei Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Reinforcement Learning ◽  
Computational Modeling ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Model Based ◽  
Modeling Approaches ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
User Friendly

Reinforcement learning and decision-making (RLDM) provide a quantitative framework and computational theories with which we can disentangle psychiatric conditions into the basic dimensions of neurocognitive functioning. RLDM offer a novel approach to assessing and potentially diagnosing psychiatric patients, and there is growing enthusiasm for both RLDM and computational psychiatry among clinical researchers. Such a framework can also provide insights into the brain substrates of particular RLDM processes, as exemplified by model-based analysis of data from functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) or electroencephalography (EEG). However, researchers often find the approach too technical and have difficulty adopting it for their research. Thus, a critical need remains to develop a user-friendly tool for the wide dissemination of computational psychiatric methods. We introduce an R package called hBayesDM (hierarchical Bayesian modeling of Decision-Making tasks), which offers computational modeling of an array of RLDM tasks and social exchange games. The hBayesDM package offers state-of-the-art hierarchical Bayesian modeling, in which both individual and group parameters (i.e., posterior distributions) are estimated simultaneously in a mutually constraining fashion. At the same time, the package is extremely user-friendly: users can perform computational modeling, output visualization, and Bayesian model comparisons, each with a single line of coding. Users can also extract the trial-by-trial latent variables (e.g., prediction errors) required for model-based fMRI/EEG. With the hBayesDM package, we anticipate that anyone with minimal knowledge of programming can take advantage of cutting-edge computational-modeling approaches to investigate the underlying processes of and interactions between multiple decision-making (e.g., goal-directed, habitual, and Pavlovian) systems. In this way, we expect that the hBayesDM package will contribute to the dissemination of advanced modeling approaches and enable a wide range of researchers to easily perform computational psychiatric research within different populations.

scholarly journals Reevaluating the antiquity of the Palmrose site: Collections-based research of an early plank house on the northern Oregon Coast

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0255223
Author(s):  
Gabriel M. Sanchez
Keyword(s):  
Material Culture ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Smithsonian Institution ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Oregon Coast ◽  
Maximum Range ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
The 1960S

Large-scale excavations conducted by Smithsonian Institution archaeologists and avocational archaeologists during the 1960s and 1970s at three sites in Seaside, Oregon, resulted in the recovery of a diverse range of material culture curated by multiple institutions. One site, known as Palmrose (35CLT47), provides compelling evidence for the presence of one of the earliest examples of a rectangular plank house along the Oregon Coast. Previous research suggests habitation of the Palmrose site occurred between 2340 cal BC to cal AD 640. However, recent research highlights significant chronometric hygiene concerns of previously reported radiocarbon dates for the Seaside area, calling into question broader regional chronologies. This paper presents a revised chronology for the Palmrose site based on 12 new accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates of ancient cervid bones. I evaluate these new dates and previously reported radiocarbon dates from the site, applying chronometric hygiene assessments and Bayesian statistics to build a refined chronology for the Palmrose site. Calibration of the 12 AMS radiocarbon dates suggests an initial occupation range from 345−55 cal BC and a terminal occupation range from cal AD 225−340−. Bayesian modeling of the Palmrose sequence suggests initial occupation may have spanned from 195−50 cal BC and the terminal occupation from cal AD 210−255. Modeling suggests the maximum range of occupation may span from 580−55 cal BC to cal AD 210−300 based on the start and end boundary calculations. Bayesian modeling of radiocarbon dates directly associated with the plank house deposits suggests the plank house’s occupation may have spanned from 160−1 cal BC to cal AD 170−320. The new radiocarbon dates significantly constrain the Palmrose habitation and alter regional chronologies.

scholarly journals THREE GENERATIONS UNDER ONE ROOF? BAYESIAN MODELING OF RADIOCARBON DATA FROM NUNALLEQ, YUKON-KUSKOKWIM DELTA, ALASKA

2018 ◽  
Vol 83 (3) ◽  
pp. 505-524 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul M. Ledger ◽  
Véronique Forbes ◽  
Edouard Masson-Maclean ◽  
Charlotta Hillerdal ◽  
W. Derek Hamilton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Radiocarbon Dating ◽  
Archaeological Site ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Three Generations ◽  
The North ◽  
North American Arctic ◽  
Radiocarbon Data ◽  
Bayesian Statistical Modeling

This article presents the results of a program of radiocarbon dating and Bayesian modeling from the precontact Yup'ik site of Nunalleq (GDN-248) in subarctic southwestern Alaska. Nunalleq is deeply stratified, presenting a robust relative chronological framework of well-defined individual house floors abundant in ecofacts suitable for radiocarbon dating. Capitalizing on this potential, we present the results of one of the first applications of Bayesian statistical modeling of radiocarbon data from an archaeological site in the North American Arctic. Using these methods, we demonstrate that it is possible to generate robust, high-resolution chronological models from Arctic archaeology. Radiocarbon dates, procured prior to the program of dating and modeling presented here, suggested an approximately three-century duration of occupation at the site. The results of Bayesian modeling nuance this interpretation. While it is possible that there may have been activity for almost three centuries (beginning in the late fourteenth century), occupation of the dwelling complex, which dominates the site, was more likely to have endured for no more than a century. The results presented here suggest that the occupation of Nunalleq likely encompassed three generations beginning cal AD 1570–1630 before being curtailed by conflict around cal AD 1645–1675.

scholarly journals Radiocarbon dates and Bayesian modeling support maritime diffusion model for megaliths in Europe

2019 ◽  
Vol 116 (9) ◽  
pp. 3460-3465 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Schulz Paulsson
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Bayesian Modeling ◽  
Radiocarbon Dating ◽  
Statistical Approach ◽  
Alternative Hypothesis ◽  
Atlantic Coast ◽  
Time Interval ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Conventional View ◽  
The Mediterranean

There are two competing hypotheses for the origin of megaliths in Europe. The conventional view from the late 19th and early 20th centuries was of a single-source diffusion of megaliths in Europe from the Near East through the Mediterranean and along the Atlantic coast. Following early radiocarbon dating in the 1970s, an alternative hypothesis arose of regional independent developments in Europe. This model has dominated megalith research until today. We applied a Bayesian statistical approach to 2,410 currently available radiocarbon results from megalithic, partly premegalithic, and contemporaneous nonmegalithic contexts in Europe to resolve this long-standing debate. The radiocarbon results suggest that megalithic graves emerged within a brief time interval of 200 y to 300 y in the second half of the fifth millennium calibrated years BC in northwest France, the Mediterranean, and the Atlantic coast of Iberia. We found decisive support for the spread of megaliths along the sea route in three main phases. Thus, a maritime diffusion model is the most likely explanation of their expansion.

Radiocarbon chronology for the Early Gravettian of northern Europe: new AMS determinations for Maisières-Canal, Belgium

Antiquity ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 84 (323) ◽  
pp. 26-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
R.M. Jacobi ◽  
T.F.G. Higham ◽  
P. Haesaerts ◽  
I. Jadin ◽  
L.S. Basell
Keyword(s):  
Young Adult ◽  
High Precision ◽  
Adult Male ◽  
Northern Europe ◽  
Cold Spell ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
North West ◽  
Young Adult Male ◽  
Radiocarbon Chronology

The authors explore the arrival of the earliest Gravettian in north-west Europe, using new high precision radiocarbon dates for bone excavated at Maisières-Canal in Belgium to define a short-lived occupation around 33 000 years ago. The tanged points in that assemblage have parallels in British sites, including Goat's Hole (Paviland). This is the site of the famous ochred burial of a young adult male, confusingly known as the ‘Red Lady’, now dated to around 34 000 BP. The new results demonstrate that this British ‘rich burial’ and the Gravettian with tanged points may belong to two different occupation horizons separated by a cold spell.

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