A Model of Income Evaluation: Income Comparison on Subjective Reference Income Distribution

People's evaluation of the relative position of their income is not as accurate as the relative income hypothesis assumes. It is observed from empirical survey data that income evaluation is concentrated in the middle. We develop a model that assumes income comparison on a subjective income reference distribution to explain the centralization phenomenon of income evaluation. We conduct theoretical analysis and empirical parameter estimation using Bayesian statistical modeling. The theoretical analysis shows that the centralization of income evaluation distribution occurs when the subjective reference distribution is more dispersed than the objective distribution. Empirical analysis using Japanese data from 2015 shows that the relationship between subjective and objective distributions differed depending on social categories with different social experiences. Women had a more ambiguous distribution than men. Among men, those aged 45--54 had a subjective distribution closest to the objective distribution. Thus, the subjective reference income distributions that potentially define people's evaluation of their income and their differences based on social category were only clarified by constructing the model.

Declining SARS-CoV-2 PCR sensitivity with time and dependence on clinical features: consequences for control

Real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) on upper respiratory tract (URT) samples is the primary method to diagnose SARS-CoV-2 infections and guide public health measures, with a supportive role for serology. However, the clinical sensitivity of RT-PCR remains uncertain. In the present study, Bayesian statistical modeling was used to retrospectively determine the sensitivity of RT-PCR using SARS-CoV-2 serology in 644 COVID-19-suspected patients with varying degrees of disease severity and duration. The sensitivity of RT-PCR ranged between 79-95%; while increasing with disease severity, it decreased rapidly over time in mild COVID-19 cases. Negative URT RT-PCR results should therefore be interpreted in the context of clinical characteristics, especially with regard to containment of viral transmission based on the 'test, trace and isolate' principle.

A Randomized Controlled Trial to Investigate Safety and Variability of Egg Excretion After Repeated Controlled Human Hookworm Infection

Background Controlled human hookworm infections could significantly contribute to the development of a hookworm vaccine. However, current models are hampered by low and unstable egg output, reducing generalizability and increasing sample sizes. This study aims to investigate the safety, tolerability, and egg output of repeated exposure to hookworm larvae. Methods Twenty-four healthy volunteers were randomized, double-blindly, to 1, 2, or 3 doses of 50 Necator americanus L3 larvae at 2-week intervals. Volunteers were monitored weekly and were treated with albendazole at week 20. Results There was no association between larval dose and number or severity of adverse events. Geometric mean egg loads stabilized at 697, 1668, and 1914 eggs per gram feces for the 1 × 50L3, 2 × 50L3, and 3 × 50L3 group, respectively. Bayesian statistical modeling showed that egg count variability relative to the mean was reduced with a second infectious dose; however, the third dose did not increase egg load or decrease variability. We therefore suggest 2 × 50L3 as an improved challenge dose. Model-based simulations indicates increased frequency of stool sampling optimizes the power of hypothetical vaccine trials. Conclusions Repeated infection with hookworm larvae increased egg counts to levels comparable to the field and reduced relative variability in egg output without aggravating adverse events. Clinical Trials Registration NCT03257072.

The Global Diffusion of the #MeToo Movement

Why is the #MeToo movement very active in some countries but not in others? What factors encourage the transnational diffusion of digital feminist activism? Although transnational forces are important, we argue that domestic political opportunity structures play a more significant role than transnational influences in the country-level diffusion of #MeToo. We collected 35,211 global tweets and used Bayesian statistical modeling to test the implications of our theory. Our findings support the idea that as a country better protects its citizens’ political and civil rights and civil liberties, individuals in that country are more likely to engage in the #MeToo movement.