scholarly journals Recent population development and population projections up to 2010 in Nepal

1995 ◽  
pp. 118-130
Author(s):  
Marie Reijo
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Policy Development ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Population Development ◽  
Replacement Level ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
And Migration

This article describes the recent population development in Nepal and projects alternative population development trends to the year 2010 using the cohort component model. Projections are based on the assumptions of future fertility, mortality and migration which have been derived from assumed socioeconomic and environmental development and population policy development. The relatively rapid population growth will continue mostly because of high natural increase. Population growth can be delayed most efficiently by decreasing fertility to the replacement level and by decreasing mortality further.

scholarly journals Demographic potential: from the history of the concept

POPULATION ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 17-25
Author(s):  
Oleg Rybakovsky ◽  
Olga Tayunova
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Joint Effect ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Reproduction Rate ◽  
Total Potential ◽  
Population Potential ◽  
Migration Potential ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Migration Capacity ◽  
Demographic Potential

This article discusses the main points of the formation and development of the concept«demographic potential» used for the purposes of management and forecasting in a changing environment. The need for demographic potential as an instrumental, supporting notion arose when researchers began to examine possible effects of demographic processes and their impact on the structure and size of population in the future, i.e. build population projections and population development models. Historically, researchers studied demographic potential separately for each component of the overall population growth. Beginning of the study of fertility potential is associated with the name of R. E. Fisher, life potential — with the work of L. Hersch, migration capacity — with the works of J. Q. Stewart, G. K. Zipf, S. A. Staufer and W. Izard. Attempts to assess the joint effect of different components of the overall population growth were episodic. Only in the 30s of the twentieth century the integrated synthesis indicators began to be used for describing the demographic potential. One of the indicators for capacity of population reproduction may be net reproduction rate. Modern interpretations of the potential of changes in fertility and mortality, migration capacity have a wider purpose and filling than at the time of these concepts’ formation. Demographic potential in a narrow sense is the potential population reproduction, including changes in fertility and mortality; in a broader sense, it is the total potential of population — potential of reproduction and migration potential, including possible changes in the population size and structure due to births, deaths, immigration and emigration.

Rapid Population Growth and Long-term Development

2020 ◽  
pp. 164-177
Author(s):  
Giovanni Andrea Cornia
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Resource Availability ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
World Population ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
The World

This chapter reviews population trends over the last two hundred years and population projections to the end of this century. In 2100 the world population will have stabilized but its geographical distribution will have substantially changed compared to 2015. The chapter then discusses the five stages of the demographic transition, and different neo-Malthusian and non-Malthusian theories of the relation between population growth and economic development. It emphasizes in particular the effects of rapid population growth on land and resource availability, human capital formation, population quality, the accumulation of physical capital, employment, wages, and income inequality. The effects of rapid population growth rate over a given period were found to change in line with the population size and density at the beginning of the period considered.

Opinion: The future fertility of mankind: effects on world population growth and migration

2001 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 405 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. V. Short
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Population ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Unmet Demand ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
Declining Populations ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Refugee Problem

The world’s population, currently just over 6 billion, is projected to increase to 9–10 billion by the year 2050. Most of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia, where there is an enormous unmet demand for contraception, while an increasing number of developed countries will have declining populations. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic will target developing countries, with India destined to become its new epicenter. By 2050, there may be 1 billion HIV-infected people in the world. The significant protective effect of male circumcision may spare Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia, from the worst effects of the pandemic. Australia will be increasingly threatened by the high rates of population growth of her Asian neighbours. This, coupled with political instability and sea-level rises as a consequence of global warming, will turn the present trickle of refugees from a variety of Asian countries seeking safe haven on our sparsely populated northern coastline into a veritable flood. There will come a time when we have neither the manpower, nor the means, nor even the moral right to intercept, detain or repatriate the thousands who will come in peace, in search of a better life. However, if Australia is to stabilize its future population at around 23 million, which seems highly desirable on ecological grounds, then the net immigration rate must be limited to approximately 50000 people per year. Because the final point of departure for all these refugees is Indonesia, it is essential that Australia maintains good relations with Indonesia, so that together we can attempt to manage the refugee problem. However, Indonesia’s own population is destined to increase by 100 million in the next 50 years, which will only exacerbate the situation. Australia would be well advised to make a major increase in its paltry financial assistance to Indonesia’s excellent family planning programmes, which are currently starved of funds. Helping Indonesia to contain its population growth is Australia’s best long-term investment for its own future.

scholarly journals The Feasibility of An Effective Population Policy for Pakistan

1964 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 283-313
Author(s):  
Karol J. Krotki
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Population Policy ◽  
National Development ◽  
Rapid Population Growth ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Family Planning Programme ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Impact

The purpose of the following discussion is threefold: to consider whether or not rapid population growth is an impediment to economic development in Pakistan; to assess the impact of alternative changes in population growth on the size and composition of national development plans; to consider means of manipulating population size and growth. Under the last group of problems, questions will be asked about the effectiveness of a government-directed family planning programme. Is a national population-policy a feasible operation at all? There is no evidence after four years of the Pakistan programme1 and only scanty evidence from abroad2. The major complaint in this respect will be.......

Data and Methods

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
KC Samir ◽  
Michaela PotanČoková
Keyword(s):  
Human Capital ◽  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
World Population ◽  
International Institute ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
The World ◽  
And Migration

The preceding chapters have all contributed to building the knowledge base for the actual Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) projections that will be presented and discussed in the second part of this book. This chapter stands as a bridge between the two parts. Its focus is the translation and operationalization of the empirical evidence and the substantive arguments presented so far into specific population projections by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for all countries in the world. This is a complex exercise in which data and methodology play the crucial roles. The cohort–component multidimensional projections presented in this volume require a large amount of information, ranging from base-year data on population disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex, to data on fertility, mortality, and migration by age, sex, and education for the base year, and, finally, to the assumed numerical values of these determinants according to the different scenarios. This new set of expert argument-based projections by age, sex, and educational attainment presents an important new step at the forefront of international population projections. As discussed in Chapter 1, this is a logical next step in the tradition of international population projections by the World Population Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This effort also goes beyond what the United Nations (UN) and other agencies have been doing in two important ways: it provides the most comprehensive and systematic summary of expert knowledge on future fertility, mortality, and migration to date—including the input of hundreds of demographers from around the world—and it translates this into the most comprehensive set of human capital projections for 195 countries. The WIC projections cover all countries in the world with more than 100,000 inhabitants. In this effort, the study builds on and significantly expands earlier IIASA reconstructions and projections of the population by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries published in 2007 and 2010 (KC et al., 2010; Lutz et al., 2007).

Population Growth Impacts of Zero Net International Migration

1997 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon F. Bouvier ◽  
Dudley L. Poston ◽  
Nanbin Benjamin Zhai
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Processes

Natural increase, and net international migration are the demographic processes that determine the amount of growth or decline in a nation's population. In a country such as the United States, the contribution of net international migration to overall population change overshadows the contribution of natural increase. It has long been the practice, however, when making population projections for countries, to consider the role of zero net international migration in an incorrect manner. Some analysts have assumed that if the same number of people leave and enter the country each year, then the effect of net international migration will be zero. This article examines that assumption and shows that it is fallacious. Examining the direct, indirect, total, and negative demographic impacts of zero net international migration through simulations with demographic data, we demonstrate that zero net international migration is not the same and therefore does not have the same demographic results and implications as zero international migration. We conclude that zero net international migration should not be confused with zero international migration. In discussions of international migration in either sending or receiving countries, the two concepts must be kept separate for they are not identical and, moreover, have decidedly different demographic implications and effects.

scholarly journals Urban Change in the United States, 1990–2010: A Spatial Assessment of Administrative Reclassification

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1649
Author(s):  
Bryan Jones ◽  
Deborah Balk ◽  
Stefan Leyk
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Census Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Substantial Effect ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Urban Rural ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Urban Population Growth ◽  
The Impact

In today’s increasingly urban world, understanding the components of urban population growth is essential. While the demographic components of natural increase and migration have received the overwhelming share of attention to date, this paper addresses the effects of administrative reclassification on urban population growth as derived from census data, which remain largely unstudied. We adopt a spatial approach, using the finest resolution US census data available for three decennial census periods, to estimate the magnitude of reclassification and examine the spatial-temporal variation in reclassification effects. We supplement the census data by using satellite-derived settlement data to further explain reclassification outcomes. We find that while 10% and 7% of the population live in areas that underwent urban/rural reclassification during the 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 time periods, respectively (with smaller fractions of corresponding land), reclassification has a substantial effect on metrics derived to characterize the urbanization process—comprising roughly 44% and 34% of total urban population growth over each period. The estimated magnitude of this effect is sensitive to assumptions regarding the timing of reclassification. The approach also reveals where, how, to what degree, and, in some part, why reclassification is affecting to the process of urbanization on the fine spatial scale, including the impact of underlying demographic processes. This research provides new directions to more effectively study coupled nature–human systems and their interactions.

scholarly journals Main characteristics of demographic development of eastern Herzegovina in the second half of the 20th century and at the beginning of the 21st century

2014 ◽  
pp. 727-735
Author(s):  
Radoslav Corovic
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Ageing ◽  
Population Development ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Demographic Indicators ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
And Migration

At the beginning of the observed period, the population dynamics in Eastern Herzegovina was characterized by stagnation, followed by the decrease of the total population, primarily due to traditionally present emigration, but also due to negative natural population growth. Birth rates decreasing processes, population ageing, and some other predominantly negative demographic processes have been reported for decades. This area has a low population density, while spatial distribution of the population is characterized by concentration in settlements which have the function of a municipal centre. Contemporary demographic indicators (of natural increase of population and migration) indicate further decrease in population of this region, especially of its rural parts. This is also shown by the previous 2013 Census data. Keeping in mind the current demographic indicators and characteristics of the population, side by side with weak economic development of this region, it may be expected that negative trends in population development will continue.

scholarly journals Recent changes to the Indigenous population geography of Australia: evidence from the 2016 Census

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Markham ◽  
Nicholas Biddle
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Indigenous People ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Indigenous Population ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Indigenous Australians ◽  
Population Geography

Background  The Indigenous population of Australia has grown very rapidly since the first tabulation of census statistics about Indigenous people in the 1971 ABS Census of Population and Housing (Census). Understanding the size and location of the Indigenous Australians is important to the State for service delivery and policy, and for Indigenous peoples themselves. Aims  This paper summarises changes to population geography of Indigenous Australians between 2011 and 2016. It describes the growth in the estimated population, and its changing geographic distribution. The paper derives a measure of ‘unexpected population change’: the spatial mismatch between demographic projections from the 2011 and 2016 Census counts. Data and methods  Census data and population projections are tabulated and mapped. Results  Indigenous people now comprise 3.3 per cent of the total Australian population, or 798,381 persons. This population grew by 3.5 per cent each year between 2011 and 2016, a rate of growth 34 per cent faster than that explained by natural increase alone. Both aspects of growth were concentrated in more urban parts of the country, especially coastal New South Wales and southeast Queensland. For the first time, fewer than 20 per cent of Indigenous people were recorded as living in remote areas. Conclusions  Indigenous population growth continues to be remarkably rapid. Future research is required to understand the correlates and causes of population growth beyond that explained by natural increase.

scholarly journals The critical role of assumptions in population projections: The case of Belgium

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marie Vandresse
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
International Institutions ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Future Trends ◽  
The Future ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Decision Making Tool

Population projections serve as a decision-making tool or as a tool to help contribute to discussions on the future of our societies. These projections are based on a series of choices made by the modeller about the projection methodology and the future trends in the population growth components (fertility, mortality and migration). To use these projections wisely, users should be aware of the impact of these choices on the results of a population projection. This article highlights the crucial role of the assumptions made on the future trends of the population growth components on the projection results, using population projections for Belgium published by national and international institutions.

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