Opinion: The future fertility of mankind: effects on world population growth and migration

2001 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 405 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. V. Short
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Population ◽  
Infected People ◽  
Unmet Demand ◽  
Future Fertility ◽  
Declining Populations ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Refugee Problem

The world’s population, currently just over 6 billion, is projected to increase to 9–10 billion by the year 2050. Most of this growth will occur in the developing countries of Asia, where there is an enormous unmet demand for contraception, while an increasing number of developed countries will have declining populations. The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) pandemic will target developing countries, with India destined to become its new epicenter. By 2050, there may be 1 billion HIV-infected people in the world. The significant protective effect of male circumcision may spare Islamic countries, such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, Iran and Indonesia, from the worst effects of the pandemic. Australia will be increasingly threatened by the high rates of population growth of her Asian neighbours. This, coupled with political instability and sea-level rises as a consequence of global warming, will turn the present trickle of refugees from a variety of Asian countries seeking safe haven on our sparsely populated northern coastline into a veritable flood. There will come a time when we have neither the manpower, nor the means, nor even the moral right to intercept, detain or repatriate the thousands who will come in peace, in search of a better life. However, if Australia is to stabilize its future population at around 23 million, which seems highly desirable on ecological grounds, then the net immigration rate must be limited to approximately 50000 people per year. Because the final point of departure for all these refugees is Indonesia, it is essential that Australia maintains good relations with Indonesia, so that together we can attempt to manage the refugee problem. However, Indonesia’s own population is destined to increase by 100 million in the next 50 years, which will only exacerbate the situation. Australia would be well advised to make a major increase in its paltry financial assistance to Indonesia’s excellent family planning programmes, which are currently starved of funds. Helping Indonesia to contain its population growth is Australia’s best long-term investment for its own future.

The Dynamics of Technical Progress in Some Developing and Developed Countries

2016 ◽  
pp. 172-194
Author(s):  
Weshah A. Razzak ◽  
Belkacem Laabas ◽  
El Mostafa Bentour
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Technical Progress ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Population ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Growth Model ◽  
New Ideas

We calibrate a semi-endogenous growth model to study the transitional dynamic and the properties of balanced growth paths of technological progress. In the model, long-run growth arises from global discoveries of new ideas, which depend on population growth. The transitional dynamic consists of the growth rates of capital intensity, labor, educational attainment (human capital), and research and ideas in excess of world population growth. Most of the growth in technical progress in a large number of developed and developing countries is accounted for by transitional dynamics.

scholarly journals Perspectiva de la población mundial / Outlook for the World Population

2005 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Víctor L. Urquidi
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
World Population ◽  
Population Forecasts ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Countries In Transition ◽  
And Migration

En este trabajo se presentan los resultados de las proyecciones de la población de los países que en 2003 contaban con más de 10 millones de habitantes, adscritos en tres grupos de países según niveles del PIB per cápita en 2001: países desarrollados, países en transición y países en vías de desarrollo. En el caso de estos últimos, se forman dos subgrupos: los de nivel medio y los de nivel bajo. Se hace referencia a algunos  volúmenes de población y al comportamiento de la tasa de crecimiento de la población, de la fecundidad y de la migración. En cuanto a los países en vías de desarrollo, el énfasis se pone, además de los volúmenes poblacionales, en las heterogeneidades en los niveles de la fecundidad, migración y mortalidad. Con base en este recuento, se duda que se cumplan las metas sobre la estabilización de la población hacia el 2050 o 2060 y se llama la atención acerca de la necesidad de vincular las esferas demográficas con las económicas, sociales y financieras. AbstractThis paper presents the results of the population forecasts for countries that in 2003 had over 10 million inhabitants, divided into three groups according to GDP per capita levels in 2001: developed countries, countries in transition and developing countries. The latter includes two sub-groups: those of the medium and low level. Reference is made to certain volumes of population and the behavior of the population growth rate, fertility and migration. In developing countries, emphasis is placed on population volumes and the heterogeneity of fertility, migration and mortality levels. On the basis of this review, the author doubts that the goals for stabilizing the population between 2050 and 2060 will be met and stresses the need to link demographic spheres to the economic, social and financial spheres.

Population, Environment, and Women’s Issues

2002 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Family Planning ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Married Couples ◽  
Developing Nations ◽  
World Population ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Fertility Rates ◽  
Religious Traditions ◽  
The World

Ultimately, the necessity to supply food, energy, habitat, infrastructure, and consumer goods for the ever-growing population is responsible for the demise of the environment. Remedial actions for pollution abatement, and further technological progress toward energy efficiency, development of new crops, and improvements in manufacturing processes may help to mitigate the severity of environmental deterioration. However, we can hardly hope for restoration of a clean environment, improvement in human health, and an end to poverty without arresting the continuous growth of the world population. According to the United Nations count, world population reached 6 billion in mid October 1999 (1). The rate of population growth and the fertility rates by continent, as well as in the United States and Canada, are presented in Table 14.1. It can be seen that the fastest population growth occurs in the poorest countries of the world. Despite the worldwide decrease in fertility rates between 1975–80 period and that of 1995–2000, the rate of population growth in most developing countries changed only slightly due to the demographic momentum, which means that because of the high fertility rates in the previous decades, the number of women of childbearing age had increased. Historically, the preference for large families in the developing nations was in part a result of either cultural or religious traditions. In some cases there were practical motivations, as children provided helping hands with farm chores and a security in old age. At present the situation is changing. A great majority of governments of the developing countries have recognized that no improvement of the living standard of their citizens will ever be possible without slowing the explosive population growth. By 1985, a total of 70 developing nations had either established national family planning programs, or provided support for such programs conducted by nongovernmental agencies; now only four of the world’s 170 countries limit access to family planning services. As result, 95% of the developing world population lives in countries supporting family planning. Consequently, the percentage of married couples using contraceptives increased from less than 10% in 1960 to 57% in 1997.

Population

2020 ◽  
pp. 258-276
Author(s):  
Tirthankar Roy
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Change ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Turning Point ◽  
Population History ◽  
World Population ◽  
Initial Size ◽  
Slow Pace ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Population Demographic

India’s population, long-stagnant or growing only at a slow pace, began to grow rapidly from the 1920s. Given the large initial size of the population, demographic change in this region was a turning point in world population history. What had changed to produce this turn? Chapter 10 considers the demographic transition with attention paid to population growth, famines, epidemics, and migration.

scholarly journals Some Demographic Features of the Disabled Population in Pakistan

1992 ◽  
Vol 31 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1021-1036
Author(s):  
Mohammad Afzal
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Age Structure ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Disabled Persons ◽  
Nutritional Deficiencies ◽  
World Population ◽  
The Disabled

Although disability has been the area of concern in the domain of such disciplines as social welfare and public health, the serious concern on the demography of disability as an important research subject has emerged only recently. In the less developed countries where most of the world popUlation lives, the rapid decline in mortality with little reduction in fertility, under the conditions of underdevelopment, nutritional deficiencies, insufficient coverage for health, inadequate sanitation and safe water facilities, has been contributing to the increasing number of disabled persons. This is because the availability of modern medicine, even to an inadequate extent, has contributed to the reduction in mortality, but many of those who survive become permanently disabled. Apart from the differences in data collection systems in different countries and the problems associated with such approaches, the variations in prevalence of disability are partly attributed to such factors as differential chronic and infectious disease patterns; differential life expectancy; the age structure of populations and population composition; differential nutritional status; differential rates of exposure to environmental, occupational and traffic hazards; and variations in public health practice [United Nations. (1990)]. In developed countries where the increase in life expectancy had started to occur earlier than the developing countries, the decline in fertility led to the growing proportions of the elderly in their population. As the proportion of the elderly popUlation in the total population gets larger the proportion of the disabled become conspicuous. This is because in both developed and deVeloping countries the age structure of the disabled popUlation is predominantly elderly in comparison to the overall population age structure. It has been observed that in such developed countries where the ageing process has gone furthest, the number of disabled persons have increased rapidly. [Okoliski (1986).]

Detonating the Population Bomb

2021 ◽  
pp. 158-192
Author(s):  
Emily Klancher Merchant
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
National Security ◽  
Population Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
World Population ◽  
The World ◽  
Population Establishment ◽  
The 1960S ◽  
Global Population

Chapter 6 documents the fragmentation of what had previously been a consensus regarding global population growth at the end of the 1960s and beginning of the 1970s, resulting in the emergence of two separate factions. The population establishment continued to promote the position of the erstwhile consensus, which held that rapid population growth in developing countries was a barrier to economic development and could be adequately slowed through voluntary family planning programs. The population bombers contended that population growth anywhere in the world posed an immediate existential threat to the natural environment and American national security and needed to be halted through population control measures that demographers had previously rejected as coercive. These two positions went head-to-head at the UN World Population Conference in 1974, where both were rejected by leaders of developing countries.

scholarly journals A Demand-Side Approach for Linking the Past to Future Urban–Rural Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-174
Author(s):  
Schuman Lam ◽  
Heng Li ◽  
Ann Yu
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Urban Planning ◽  
Urban Development ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Psychological Needs ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
World Population ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Development Framework

Is economy-led urbanization the only answer to urban planning? By 2050, about 70% of the world population will live in urban areas, intensified by rapid urbanization in developing countries. A new urban development framework is critically relevant to investigating urban living’s emerging complexity for advancing human-social-economic-environmental sustainability. The multi-disciplinary study explores a roadmap for solving industrialization’s adverse effects to inform future resilient development in developing countries. The classical Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs (MHN) and some scholars have stated that human physiological needs would be prioritized and fulfilled by developing countries, and psychological needs would be satisfied and desired by developed countries after fulfilling physiological needs level. Our study argued that transit-oriented-development (TOD) and ICT could simultaneously fulfill some essential physio-psychological needs with digital-ruralism. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was adopted to test the indicator-based MHN theory developed by literature, urban quality of life (Uqol) evaluation between the developing and developed countries, and backed by digital-ruralism success in developing China. The Uqol evaluation identifies the developing countries’ subjective well-being demand as the health, mobility, governance, environment, social, economy, human capital, technology-ICT, smart living, and lifestyle, which are used to transform the classical MHN model to the indicator-based MHN model. The SEM subsequently illustrates that the observed well-being indicators are positively correlated to the TOD and ICT, defined by the proposed urban-ruralism development framework. The study contributes to an innovative approach to reconnect the classical MHN theory to contemporary sustainable urban planning while narrowing the socioeconomic-environmental gap between the developed (urban) and developing (rural) domains, which encourages a paradigm shift for future resilient urban development in the developing countries.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of Size and Equity in Ownership Dynamics of Agricultural Landholdings in India Vis-à-Vis the World

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (18) ◽  
pp. 10225
Author(s):  
K. Kareemulla ◽  
Pandian Krishnan ◽  
S. Ravichandran ◽  
B. Ganesh Kumar ◽  
Sweety Sharma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Management Practices ◽  
National Income ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Farm Size ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Agricultural Income ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time

The increasing threat to sustainable agriculture is a major concern of planners worldwide. Human population growth together with increasing food requirements and competition for land use is leading to land scarcity for agricultural purposes. Farm size influences the extent of the adoption of mechanization and modern methods of farm management practices, which in turn results in increased productivity, production efficiency and agricultural income. We studied changes in macroeconomic factors such as dependency on agriculture, growth of the sector, the pattern of landholdings and tenure rights across major agriculturally important countries, as well as the priority of agriculture for the national economy (i.e., the share of agriculture in the national income) and its relationship to changes in farm size. The data on the percentage of area under farming, population growth, size of the agricultural workforce and other social dimensions from 24 countries of different geographical sizes were analysed. We used parameters such as the extent of changes in cropland, family-owned land, the agricultural workforce and their productivity, number of holdings and their distribution, women-headed holdings and finally total and per capita agricultural income, and measured the changes over time and space. The published data from national and international sources were used to establish the relationship between farm size and farm efficiency measured through the selected parameters. The results clearly establish that the size of farm holdings had an inverse relationship with the population dependent on agriculture, share of agriculture in national income and tenure rights. Australia had the largest average agricultural landholding (3243 ha), while India and Bangladesh had the lowest (1.3 and 0.3 ha, respectively). The inequality in the distribution of farmland ownership was greater in developed countries than in developing countries. Female farmland ownership was less than 20% in most developing countries and the relationship between the number of farm households and farm outcomes was found to have weakened over time. India, a developing as well as an agriculturally important country, was subjected to detailed analysis to understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of the size, distribution and ownership patterns of agricultural landholding.

scholarly journals KETAHANAN PANGAN PADA ERA GLOBALISASI DAN OTONOMISASI

Agro Ekonomi ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Sri Widodo
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Food Availability ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Market ◽  
The Self ◽  
World Population ◽  
Rice Market ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
The World ◽  
Stock Policy

Food security deals with food availability, accesscibility and stability. Food availability can be from domestic production and import. Although the production of cereals in developing countries almost equal to the production in developed countries, the much greater population of almost 79 % of the world population, the self sufficiency rate of cereals in developing countries is only 91% and to be net importer, while the self sufficiency rate of the developed countries, are more than 100 % (108 %). There are some exception for several developing countries to be big rice exporters such like Thailand, Vietnam, India, China and Pakistan.Cereal staple foods in developing countries is dominated by rice especially in East and South Asia, includes Indonesia. International rice market is characterized with oligopolistic since only six big exporting countries supllying the international rice market.After experiencing rice self sufficiency in 1984 – 1994 Indonesia have been net rice importer again, even in 1998 21% of marketed rice ini the world market were imported by Indonesia. There should be a policy to increase production to a certain rate of rice self sufficiency that will not influence the world rice market equilibrium.The food accessibility depend closely on the wider economic condition such as income distribution, poverty and unemployment, Government intervention is needed toreduce instability including to protect from the international market instability by flexible tariff. Stabilizing the seasional price fluctuation by floor price and ceiling price policy combined with buffer-stock policy had been successful. However, there should be a modified policy toward more liberized without import monopoly

scholarly journals Public and Private Savings of Selected Developing Countries in the First UN Development Decade

1976 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 446-457
Author(s):  
Paul Jonas ◽  
Anjum Nasim
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
World Population ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Development Decade ◽  
Low Incomes ◽  
Private Savings ◽  
Gross World Product ◽  
The Developed Countries

The developed countries contain about one-third of the world population and they produce more than 80 percent of Gross World Product (GWP). The remaining two-thirds of the population of our Globe who lives in Asia, Latin America and most of Africa produces less than 20 percent of the GWP. A small segment of the population of these countries is wealthy but the over¬whelming majority subsists on substandard incomes and is characterised by mass illiteracy, mal-nutrition, bad housing and lack of medical care. Because of these characteristics they have low productivity, which yields low level of income; low incomes, in turn, imply a small capacity to save resulting in an economic situation where there is barely a possibility to moblize resources for development. The question has often been raised: 'Is there way out for the developing countries' ? 1960s were declared as the First UN Development Decade and it was hoped that during these years the pre-conditions for a successful development would be established in various developing countries. The present study analyses data on public revenue, public expenditure, public savings and private savings for 12 selected developing countries pertaining to the years of the First U.N. Development Decade. The general conclusion that emerges from the study clearly suggests that with appropriate economic policies resources for development can be mobilized in the developing countries.

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