Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections: 1982 and 1986

1995 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Craig J. Svoboda
Keyword(s):  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Retrospective Voting

Economic and Referendum Voting: A Comparison of Gubernatorial and Senatorial Elections

1995 ◽  
Vol 89 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lonna Rae Atkeson ◽  
Randall W. Partin
Keyword(s):  
Political System ◽  
Separation Of Powers ◽  
Campaign Spending ◽  
Vote Choice ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Legislative Branch ◽  
Different Types

We compare vote choice in senate and gubernatorial elections from 1986 and 1990 with two retrospective voting hypotheses: the national referendum hypothesis and an economic retrospective hypothesis. Despite the similarities between the office of U.S. senator and governor (same constituency, high levels of campaign spending, highly visible candidates, etc.), we find that different types of retrospective evaluations are used with respect to vote choice. As members of the national legislative branch, senators' fortunes are linked to the success or failures of the president. In contrast, governors, as state executives, are held accountable for perceived state economic conditions, while senators escape unscathed from the same general economic evaluations. These findings shed some light on the nature of vote choice in a political system complicated by federalism and separation of powers.

scholarly journals Weathering the Storm: Conditional Effects of Natural Disasters on Retrospective Voting in Gubernatorial Elections—A Replication and Extension

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 205316801881376
Author(s):  
Kevin R. Stout
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
The Political ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Political Situation ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Conditional Effects

Previous research shows that uncontrollable events like natural disasters hinder incumbent leaders’ chances at re-election, but also suggests that competent responses to such crises can benefit incumbents. Replicating and extending the work of other researchers, I show that disasters are informative events in retrospective voting where leaders have the opportunity to demonstrate competence and be rewarded by voters while incapable leaders face punishment for their failure to respond to such a crisis. Governors see greater electoral rewards for demonstrating competence when disaster damage is high as well as when the political situation is more difficult. In the context of a leader’s decision-making process, this reveals a complex and conditional relationship between voters and the leaders they are evaluating.

Gubernatorial Elections in Japan

Asian Survey ◽  
1968 ◽  
Vol 8 (8) ◽  
pp. 646-665 ◽  
Author(s):  
Young C. Kim
Keyword(s):  
Gubernatorial Elections

The Theory of Conditional Retrospective Voting: Does the Presidential Record Matter Less in Open-Seat Elections?

2010 ◽  
Vol 72 (4) ◽  
pp. 1083-1095 ◽  
Author(s):  
James E. Campbell ◽  
Bryan J. Dettrey ◽  
Hongxing Yin
Keyword(s):  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Open Seat

Challenger Entry and Voter Learning

2007 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. 303-320 ◽  
Author(s):  
SANFORD C. GORDON ◽  
GREGORY A. HUBER ◽  
DIMITRI LANDA
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Research ◽  
Electoral Competition ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Strategic Interaction ◽  
Incumbency Advantage ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Positive Assessment ◽  
Threat Of Entry ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Different Levels

We develop a model of strategic interaction between voters and potential electoral challengers to sitting incumbents, in which the very fact of a costly challenge conveys relevant information to voters. Given incumbent failure in office, challenger entry is more likely, but the threat of entry by inferior challengers creates an incentive for citizens to become more politically informed. At the same time, challenges to incumbents who perform well can neutralize a voter's positive assessment of incumbent qualifications. How a voter becomes politically informed can in turn deter challengers of different levels of competence from running, depending on the electoral environment. The model permits us to sharpen our understanding of retrospective voting, the incumbency advantage, and the relationship between electoral competition and voter welfare, while pointing to new interpretations of, and future avenues for, empirical research on elections.

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