The Combination of Forecasts

OR ◽  
1969 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 451 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Bates ◽  
C. W. J. Granger
Keyword(s):  
Combination Of Forecasts

Combination of Forecasts in Data Mining

2011 ◽  
pp. 589-593
Author(s):  
Chi Kin Chan
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Performance Improvements ◽  
The Past ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Combination Of Forecasts ◽  
Single Method

The traditional approach to forecasting involves choosing the forecasting method judged most appropriate of the available methods and applying it to some specific situations. The choice of a method depends upon the characteristics of the series and the type of application. The rationale behind such an approach is the notion that a “best” method exists and can be identified. Further that the “best” method for the past will continue to be the best for the future. An alternative to the traditional approach is to aggregate information from different forecasting methods by aggregating forecasts. This eliminates the problem of having to select a single method and rely exclusively on its forecasts. Considerable literature has accumulated over the years regarding the combination of forecasts. The primary conclusion of this line of research is that combining multiple forecasts leads to increased forecast accuracy. This has been the result whether the forecasts are judgmental or statistical, econometric or extrapolation. Furthermore, in many cases one can make dramatic performance improvements by simply averaging the forecasts.

scholarly journals Die kombinering van ekonomiese vooruitskattings in die Suid-Afrikaanse konteks

1989 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 178-183
Author(s):  
C. B. Calitz ◽  
E. V.D.M. Smit
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Relative Accuracy ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Weighted Arithmetic ◽  
Combining Forecasts ◽  
Combination Of Forecasts ◽  
Economic Forecasts

In the literature on forecasting, consensus has been reached about improved forecasting accuracy brought about by the combination of two or more forecasts for a given variable. No consensus, however, exists about the exact way in which the various forecasts in the combination should be weighed. The evidence points towards simple weighing schemes. The present study utilizes South African macro-economic forecasts published by seven forecasters on eight variables to evaluate the benefits to be gained from combining forecasts and to evaluate the relative accuracy of a number of combination schemes. The results confirm the current views on the combination of forecasts in so far as combining forecasts have led to increased accuracy in forecasting. It further confirms the viewpoint that a simple or weighted arithmetic average of individual forecasts seems to be acceptable as instruments for combining forecasts.

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