Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique

1998 ◽  
Vol 92 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Green ◽  
Bradley Palmquist ◽  
Eric Schickler
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reagan Administration ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Aggregate Distribution ◽  
Partisan Change ◽  
Presidential Popularity ◽  
Partisan Realignment

MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson (1989, 1992) argue that the aggregate distribution of party identification, or macropartisanship, shifts significantly over short periods in response to changes in presidential popularity and consumer sentiment. Their results are based on a subset of Gallup surveys available from 1953 to 1988 and only those CBS /New York Times surveys conducted during the Reagan administration. We replicate this analysis using a more extensive inventory of Gallup and CBS /New York Times data and find considerably less evidence of partisan fluctuation. The amount of partisan change caused by short-term movements in consumer sentiment and presidential popularity is found to be two to three times smaller than initially reported by MacKuen et al. (1989). Our results indicate that macropartisanship adjusts to short-term shocks in a limited and gradual fashion, consistent with traditional views of partisan realignment.

Partisan Dealignment and the Dynamics of Independence in the American Electorate, 1953–88

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold D. Clarke ◽  
Motoshi Suzuki
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Models ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Public Support ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Old Regime ◽  
Partisan Change ◽  
Short Term Change

Since the 1950s, the dominant pattern of partisan change in the American electorate has involved movements between party identification and independence rather than direct or indirect shifts between parties. This article employs switching regression analyses to investigate the long-term evolution and short-term dynamics of independence between 1953 and 1988. The analyses reveal that a new ‘independence regime’ developed rapidly in the mid-1960s, with the ‘tipping point’ in the transition occurring in the second quarter of 1967. Under the new–but not the old–regime, short-term changes in the size of the independent cohort have reflected economic conditions as well as political events. These findings argue that future research on the dynamics of public support for political parties in the United States and elsewhere will profit by developing dynamic models which assess processes of long- and short-term change in tandem.

Realignment and Macropartisanship

2001 ◽  
Vol 95 (4) ◽  
pp. 953-962 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael F. Meffert ◽  
Helmut Norpoth ◽  
Anirudh V. S. Ruhil
Keyword(s):  
New Deal ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Partisan Realignment ◽  
Electoral Equilibrium ◽  
The New Deal ◽  
The U.S

Aggregate party identification (macropartisanship) has exhibited substantial movement in the U.S. electorate over the last half century. We contend that a major key to that movement is a rare, massive, and enduring shift of the electoral equilibrium commonly known as a partisan realignment. The research, which is based on time-series data that employ the classic measurement of party identification, shows that the 1980 election triggered a systematic growth of Republican identification that cut deeply into the overwhelming Democratic lead dating back to the New Deal realignment. Although short-term fluctuations in macropartisanship are responsive to the elements of everyday politics, neither presidential approval nor consumer sentiment is found responsible for the 1980 shift.

Question Wording and Macropartisanship

1992 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. MacKuen ◽  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
James A. Stimson ◽  
Paul R. Abramson ◽  
Charles W. Ostrom
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Telephone Surveys ◽  
Gallup Poll ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings ◽  
Poll Data

MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson used quarterly Gallup poll data to show in this Review in 1989 that changing levels of macropartisanship, the two-party division of partisans, responded to presidential approval ratings and perceptions of the economy and predicted national election results. In a 1991 Review research note Abramson and Ostrom argued that the NES and GSS questions more commonly used by scholars generated macropartisanship measures less sensitive to short term factors and less predictive of election outcomes. In this Controversy, Erikson and Stimson respond to the challenge and present new data from CBS News and New York Times telephone surveys to buttress their earlier analyses, arguing against substantial effects of the different question wordings. Abramson and Ostrom explain their continuing reservations.

scholarly journals Friedman Doctrine: Maximizing Profits is Neither Good for Society Nor Even for the Shareholders

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. p153
Author(s):  
Y. Datta
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
The Social ◽  
Good For

This paper is an attempt at a critique of Milton Friedman’s article titled: “A Friedman doctrine—The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase Its Profits” published in the New York Times Magazine fifty years ago. The publication of this doctrine sparked a revolution. Ronald Reagan found it a powerful platform from which to launch his radical free-market agenda. The event marked a turning point when America embarked on a journey towards unfettered capitalism.Encouraged by the Friedman doctrine American CEOs chose a path toward profit maximization/maximizing shareholder value: a mindset that favored risk aversion and a short-term focus on cost reduction vs. long-term need for innovation, quality and customer satisfaction. And it is this historic psychological shift that has contributed so much to America’s industrial decline.Economic inequality in America has been going up persistently since 1974, squeezing the middle class. America’s income inequality has now widened so much that it rivals the highest level recorded in 1928 that led to the Great Depression of 1929. Friedman’s essay has three major flaws. First, it is offered as a doctrine not a theorem. Second, it is grounded in the moral philosophy of self-interest—and greed. Third, it does not distinguish between short-term and long-term shareholders.Friedman’s theory of profit maximization is too difficult, too unrealistic--and immoral.Based on an extensive analysis, we have come to the conclusion that profit maximization is neither good for society nor even for the shareholders.

Media Coverage of Immigration and White Partisanship

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marisa Abrajano ◽  
Zoltan L. Hajnal
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
News Media ◽  
Media Coverage ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Negative Consequences ◽  
The Public ◽  
Time Period ◽  
The Media

This chapter examines the role of news media in driving white fears regarding immigration. In particular, it explores the relationship between media coverage of immigration and aggregate shifts in white party identification. It first considers how the media influences public opinion before discussing the media's profit-driven incentives to frame immigration in a negative manner. Content analysis of immigration-related articles from the New York Times from 1980 to 2011 shows that when the issue of immigration is brought to the attention of the public, it is generally with an emphasis on the negative consequences of immigration. This negative coverage leads to important effects on white macropartisanship. Across this time period, the chapter finds that the reliance on the Latino threat narrative by the media is correlated with significant defection away from the Democratic Party along with increases in the proportion of the public that identifies as Republicans and Independents.

Presidential Popularity and Negative Voting: An Alternative Explanation of the Midterm Congressional Decline of the President's Party

1977 ◽  
Vol 71 (1) ◽  
pp. 44-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samuel Kernell
Keyword(s):  
Alternative Explanation ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Congressional Elections ◽  
Political Environment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
White House ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Presidential Popularity ◽  
Party Voting

Midterm congressional elections have been generally viewed as relatively sterile affairs marked by reduced turnout, party voting, and the play of politically idiosyncratic forces such as friends-and-neighbors voting. The usual reduction in the number of seats controlled by the President's party, according to the “surge and decline” thesis, simply reflects the departure of short-term forces which presumably benefited the president's party two years earlier. In this study an alternative thesis is proposed which considers midterm election outcomes within the context of the current political environment. Evaluations of the President's performance are found to be directly associated with congressional preferences over a series of midterm elections from 1946 through 1966. Moreover, controlling for party identification, persons who disapprove of the President's performance were generally more likely to vote and to cast their ballot against the President's party than were his admirers to support it. This “negative voting” bias helps to explain why the Democratic and Republican parties have performed more poorly in those midterm elections during which they occupy the White House.

scholarly journals Retrospective Voting in Presidential Primaries

1991 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 57-80
Author(s):  
Mark J. Wattier
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Socioeconomic Status ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
Research Question ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Presidential Primaries ◽  
Candidate Image ◽  
Basic Finding

The research question of this study was whether voters who participated in presidential primaries cast retrospective votes. This problem was studied with data from CBS News/New York Times exit polls for three 1976 Republican primaries and for ten 1980 Democratic primaries. The analysis suggested that ballots cast in the presidential primaries of the party-in-power were primarily retrospective votes. Statistical controls were introduced for candidate image, ideology, issues, electability, party identification, and socioeconomic status. These controls did not alter the basic finding of retrospective voting.

Predictions For COVID-19 With Deep Learning Models of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

2022 ◽  
pp. 128-153
Author(s):  
Fan Wu ◽  
Juan Shu
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
New York Times ◽  
The United States ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Contagious Diseases ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

COVID-19, one of the most contagious diseases and urgent threats in recent times, attracts attention across the globe to study the trend of infections and help predict when the pandemic will end. A reliable prediction will make states and citizens acknowledge possible consequences and benefits for the policymaker among the delicate balance of reopening and public safety. This chapter introduces a deep learning technique and long short-term memory (LSTM) to forecast the trend of COVID-19 in the United States. The dataset from the New York Times (NYT) of confirmed and deaths cases is utilized in the research. The results include discussion of the potential outcomes if extreme circumstances happen and the profound effect beyond the forecasting number.

La crisi americana: appunti di viaggio

2009 ◽  
pp. 103-119
Author(s):  
Massimo Florio
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Income Distribution ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Current Crisis ◽  
Public Intervention ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Monetary And Fiscal Policy ◽  
Bail Out

- This paper comments on an editorial on the American crisis published in the New York Times by Professor Casey Mulligan, University of Chicago. According to Mulligan, the crisis is nothing more than a financial fluctuation: the banks should not be bailed out, other financial actors can take care of business investments, the delay in investment and consumption is not a big problem and public intervention is therefore useless. This paper argues, instead, that the current crisis is not primarily financial but originates from a prolonged shock that hit income distribution. The share of labour declined, while the share of capital increased. To sustain returns on capital it was necessary to force lending to consumers. In the short term both monetary and fiscal policy are needed, but in the mid-to-long run it is necessary to return to a more balanced income distribution.EconLit Classification: E250, E620, E650Keywords: Financial and Economic Crisis, Banks Bail-Out, Income Distribution

Inhaltsanalyse elektronisch gespeicherter Massendaten der internationalen Presse

2003 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 98-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Galliker ◽  
Jan Herman
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York Times

Zusammenfassung. Am Beispiel der Repräsentation von Mann und Frau in der Times und in der New York Times wird ein inhaltsanalytisches Verfahren vorgestellt, das sich besonders für die Untersuchung elektronisch gespeicherter Printmedien eignet. Unter Co-Occurrence-Analyse wird die systematische Untersuchung verbaler Kombinationen pro Zähleinheit verstanden. Diskutiert wird das Problem der Auswahl der bei der Auswertung und Darstellung der Ergebnisse berücksichtigten semantischen Einheiten.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document