Question Wording and Macropartisanship

1992 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael B. MacKuen ◽  
Robert S. Erikson ◽  
James A. Stimson ◽  
Paul R. Abramson ◽  
Charles W. Ostrom
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Telephone Surveys ◽  
Gallup Poll ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings ◽  
Poll Data

MacKuen, Erikson and Stimson used quarterly Gallup poll data to show in this Review in 1989 that changing levels of macropartisanship, the two-party division of partisans, responded to presidential approval ratings and perceptions of the economy and predicted national election results. In a 1991 Review research note Abramson and Ostrom argued that the NES and GSS questions more commonly used by scholars generated macropartisanship measures less sensitive to short term factors and less predictive of election outcomes. In this Controversy, Erikson and Stimson respond to the challenge and present new data from CBS News and New York Times telephone surveys to buttress their earlier analyses, arguing against substantial effects of the different question wordings. Abramson and Ostrom explain their continuing reservations.

Presidential Approval Ratings as a Variable in the Agenda-Building Process

1991 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 672-679 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wayne Wanta
Keyword(s):  
News Media ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Gallup Poll ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Building Process ◽  
The Press ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Poll Data

The agenda of the president, press and public obviously have a relationship to each other, and this study finds the president can interfere with the relationship between the news media and public by presenting an agenda of issues that differs from the press' agenda. Based on a content analysis of the president's weekly summary of activities/documents and Gallup Poll data from 1970 to 1988, this investigation suggests president and press, in a sense, compete for public attention and that the president is more likely to win attention when his popularity is high.

Institutional Change and the Presidential Mandate

2013 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 483-514 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia R. Azari
Keyword(s):  
Party Politics ◽  
The Political ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Presidential Nomination ◽  
Election Result ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Original Dataset ◽  
Political Conditions ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings

Often treated as a unified concept with a single definition, the presidential mandate actually encompasses multiple definitions, each connected to distinct ideas about democracy and presidential leadership. This article looks at how and when modern presidents have used mandate rhetoric and seeks to explain changes in presidential mandate-claiming patterns. Using an original dataset of 1,467 presidential communications from 1933 through 2009, I find that after 1969 presidents became more likely to use election results to justify their actions. However, they also became less likely to emphasize the magnitude of the election result, focusing their mandate rhetoric instead on campaign promises and distinctions between candidates and parties. Evidence suggests that this shift is the result of a combination of several factors: changes to the presidential nomination system, polarized party politics, and an overall decline in presidential approval ratings. Based on this research, I conclude that ideas about the presidential mandate are closely connected with the political conditions and challenges facing presidents. As the place of the presidency has shifted in American politics, the ways in which presidents interpret and communicate about elections have also changed.

The Effects of the State of Union Address of USA Presidents to Their Performance Ratings

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Carl Lee
Keyword(s):  
Text Mining ◽  
Performance Ratings ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Mining Technique ◽  
State Of The Union ◽  
Speech Patterns ◽  
Modeling Techniques ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings

In this article, the authors conduct a case study using text mining technique to analyze the patterns of the president's State of the Union Address in USA, and investigate the effects of these speech patterns on their performance rating in the following year. The speeches analyzed include the recent four USA presidents, Bush (1989 – 1992), Clinton (1993 - 2000), G.W. Bush (2001 – 2008), and Obama (2009 – 2011). The patterns found are further integrated and merged with over 4000 surveys on the presidents' performance ratings from 1989 to 2010. Two text mining methodology are applied to study the text patterns. Two predictive modeling techniques are applied to study the effects of these found patterns to their presidential approval ratings. The results indicate that the speech patterns found are highly associated with their approval rates.

scholarly journals Oito anos construindo popularidade

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Luiz Ferreira ◽  
Sergio Naruhiko Sakurai ◽  
Rodolfo Oliveira
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings

Este artigo apresenta uma breve resenha e discute alguns dos resultados apresentados no trabalho de Ferreira, A. L. & Sakurai, S. N. (2010), “Personal Charisma or the Economy? Macroeconomic indicators of presidential approval ratings in Brazil”. A evidência encontrada numa versão atualizada desse artigo, referente ao período entre 09/1999 e 05/2010, mostra que o desemprego é uma das principais variáveis econômicas que afetam a aprovação. Também existe evidência de que o atual presidente apresenta uma taxa de aprovação maior que a do presidente Fernando Henrique Cardoso (FHC), mantendo constante importantes indicadores macroeconômicos domésticos e estrangeiros. No entanto, o período de 09/99 até 12/2002 é caracterizado por uma tendência determinista positiva maior do que a do período anterior, indicando um diferencial de crescimento contínuo da popularidade de FHC.

Macropartisanship: A Replication and Critique

1998 ◽  
Vol 92 (4) ◽  
pp. 883-899 ◽  
Author(s):  
Donald Green ◽  
Bradley Palmquist ◽  
Eric Schickler
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reagan Administration ◽  
Party Identification ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Aggregate Distribution ◽  
Partisan Change ◽  
Presidential Popularity ◽  
Partisan Realignment

MacKuen, Erikson, and Stimson (1989, 1992) argue that the aggregate distribution of party identification, or macropartisanship, shifts significantly over short periods in response to changes in presidential popularity and consumer sentiment. Their results are based on a subset of Gallup surveys available from 1953 to 1988 and only those CBS /New York Times surveys conducted during the Reagan administration. We replicate this analysis using a more extensive inventory of Gallup and CBS /New York Times data and find considerably less evidence of partisan fluctuation. The amount of partisan change caused by short-term movements in consumer sentiment and presidential popularity is found to be two to three times smaller than initially reported by MacKuen et al. (1989). Our results indicate that macropartisanship adjusts to short-term shocks in a limited and gradual fashion, consistent with traditional views of partisan realignment.

The de-emphasis of sampling error in coverage of presidential approval ratings

2018 ◽  
Vol 39 (2) ◽  
pp. 180-190
Author(s):  
Matthew M. Reavy ◽  
Kimberly Pavlick
Keyword(s):  
Sampling Error ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings

This study extends research into problems in handling sampling error within polls by examining coverage of President Obama’s approval ratings in three major newspapers over a five-year period. Results indicate support for hypotheses suggesting that, when confronted with poll results that could be explained by sampling error alone, journalists will instead emphasize those changes or differences.

scholarly journals Friedman Doctrine: Maximizing Profits is Neither Good for Society Nor Even for the Shareholders

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. p153
Author(s):  
Y. Datta
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Profit Maximization ◽  
New York Times ◽  
Ronald Reagan ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
The Social ◽  
Good For

This paper is an attempt at a critique of Milton Friedman’s article titled: “A Friedman doctrine—The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase Its Profits” published in the New York Times Magazine fifty years ago. The publication of this doctrine sparked a revolution. Ronald Reagan found it a powerful platform from which to launch his radical free-market agenda. The event marked a turning point when America embarked on a journey towards unfettered capitalism.Encouraged by the Friedman doctrine American CEOs chose a path toward profit maximization/maximizing shareholder value: a mindset that favored risk aversion and a short-term focus on cost reduction vs. long-term need for innovation, quality and customer satisfaction. And it is this historic psychological shift that has contributed so much to America’s industrial decline.Economic inequality in America has been going up persistently since 1974, squeezing the middle class. America’s income inequality has now widened so much that it rivals the highest level recorded in 1928 that led to the Great Depression of 1929. Friedman’s essay has three major flaws. First, it is offered as a doctrine not a theorem. Second, it is grounded in the moral philosophy of self-interest—and greed. Third, it does not distinguish between short-term and long-term shareholders.Friedman’s theory of profit maximization is too difficult, too unrealistic--and immoral.Based on an extensive analysis, we have come to the conclusion that profit maximization is neither good for society nor even for the shareholders.

scholarly journals Terrorist Attacks & Presidential Approval Rating

2014 ◽  
Vol 22 ◽  
pp. 27-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attacks ◽  
Political Affiliation ◽  
September 11Th ◽  
Presidential Approval ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Approval Rating ◽  
Presidential Approval Ratings ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Over Time

After the attacks of September 11th the U.S. focused much of its foreign policy efforts on the War on Terror and prevention of another attack on U.S. soil. This paper will look at terrorist attacks dating back to 1970 in order to fully understand the impact of terrorist attacks on U.S. presidential approval ratings and the existence of the ‘rally around the flag’ effect during different administrations. Location, lethality, style, and political affiliation of the president will be variables focused on in a pre and post 9/11 context. This paper will give special consideration to 9/11, excluding the attacks in many cases, in order to view if there is a significant stable impact on approval ratings from terrorist attacks over time.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document