The Term Structure of Interest Rates: A Time-Series Test of the Kane Expected-Change Model of Interest-Rate Forecasting

1973 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph F. Sinkey
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Change Model

scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

scholarly journals The Rising Cost of Climate Change: Evidence from the Bond Market

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-45
Author(s):  
Michael D. Bauer ◽  
Glenn D. Rudebusch
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Social Cost Of Carbon ◽  
Carbon Mitigation ◽  
Interest Rate Models ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
The Social

Abstract Social discount rates (SDRs) are crucial for evaluating the costs of climate change. We show that the fundamental anchor for market-based SDRs is the equilibrium or steady-state real interest rate. Empirical interest rate models that allow for shifts in this equilibrium real rate find that it has declined notably since the 1990s, and this decline implies that the entire term structure of SDRs has shifted lower as well. Accounting for this new normal of persistently lower interest rates substantially boosts estimates of the social cost of carbon and supports a climate policy with stronger carbon mitigation strategies.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Suku Bunga, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) dan Pertumbuhan Kredit terhadap Inflasi di Indonesia

Jurnal Ecogen ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 557
Author(s):  
Putri Yeni ◽  
Syamsul Amar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the influence of interest rates, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) and credit growth to inflation in Indonesia. This type of research is descriptive research and uses secondary data in the form of time-series from 2007 to 2016 using the method of multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a significant and positive effect on inflation in Indonesia. The Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) has a significant and positive effect on inflation in Indonesia. Credit growth has a significant and positive effect on inflation in Indonesia. Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that there is a significant influence between interest rates, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR) and credit growth to inflation in Indonesia. Keyword: Inflation, Interest Rate, Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Credit Growth

scholarly journals A Study on Estimation and Prediction of Vector Time Series Model Using Financial Big Data (Interest Rates)

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 309-316
Author(s):  
Jae-Hyun Kim, Chang-Ho An
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prediction Model ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Information Criteria ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Call Rate ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Autoregressive

Due to the global economic downturn, the Korean economy continues to slump. Hereupon the Bank of Korea implemented a monetary policy of cutting the base rate to actively respond to the economic slowdown and low prices. Economists have been trying to predict and analyze interest rate hikes and cuts. Therefore, in this study, a prediction model was estimated and evaluated using vector autoregressive model with time series data of long- and short-term interest rates. The data used for this purpose were call rate (1 day), loan interest rate, and Treasury rate (3 years) between January 2002 and December 2019, which were extracted monthly from the Bank of Korea database and used as variables, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used as a research model. The stationarity test of variables was confirmed by the ADF-unit root test. Bidirectional linear dependency relationship between variables was confirmed by the Granger causality test. For the model identification, AICC, SBC, and HQC statistics, which were the minimum information criteria, were used. The significance of the parameters was confirmed through t-tests, and the fitness of the estimated prediction model was confirmed by the significance test of the cross-correlation matrix and the multivariate Portmanteau test. As a result of predicting call rate, loan interest rate, and Treasury rate using the prediction model presented in this study, it is predicted that interest rates will continue to drop.

Does the slope of the yield curve of the interbank market influence prices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange? A sectoral perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (4) ◽  
pp. 294-307
Author(s):  
Ewa Majerowska ◽  
Jacek Bednarz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Rate Curve ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Warsaw Stock Exchange ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Relationship Of

The interest rate curve is often viewed as the leading indicator of economic prosperity in a broad sense. This paper studies the ability of the slope of the yield curve in the term structure of interest rates to impact the sectoral indices on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, using daily data covering the period from 1 January 2001 to 30 September 2020. The results of the research indicate an ambiguous dependence of the logarithmic rates of return of sub-indices on the change of the interbank interest rate curve. The only sectors showing a clear relationship of this type is energy and pharmaceuticals.

Yield Curves, Swap Curves, and Term Structure of Interest Rates

2019 ◽  
pp. 203-228
Author(s):  
Tom P. Davis ◽  
Dmitri Mossessian
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Yield Curve ◽  
Yield Curves ◽  
No Arbitrage ◽  
Interest Rate Swap ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Swap ◽  
The U.S

This chapter discusses multiple definitions of the yield curve and provides a conceptual understanding on the construction of yield curves for several markets. It reviews several definitions of the yield curve and examines the basic principles of the arbitrage-free pricing as they apply to yield curve construction. The chapter also reviews cases in which the no-arbitrage assumption is dropped from the yield curve, and then moves to specifics of the arbitrage-free curve construction for bond and swap markets. The concepts of equilibrium and market curves are introduced. The details of construction of both types of the curve are illustrated with examples from the U.S. Treasury market and the U.S. interest rate swap market. The chapter concludes by examining the major changes to the swap curve construction process caused by the financial crisis of 2007–2008 that made a profound impact on the interest rate swap markets.

scholarly journals Measuring Interest Rate Risk with Embedded Option Using HPL-MC Method in Fuzzy and Stochastic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Enlin Tang ◽  
Wei Du
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Interest Rate Risk ◽  
Extended Model ◽  
Term Structure Model ◽  
Continuous Innovation ◽  
Liability Management ◽  
Rate Risk ◽  
Embedded Options

Under the condition of continuous innovation of financial derivatives and marketization of interest rate, interest rates fluctuate more frequently and fiercely, and the measurement of interest rate risk also attracts more attention. Under the premise that the fluctuation of interest rate follows fuzzy stochastic process, based on the option characteristics of financial instruments with embedded option, this paper takes effective duration and effective convexity as tools to measure interest rate risk when embedded options exist, tries to choose CIR extended model as term structure model, and uses the Monte Carlo method for hybrid low deviation sequences (HPL-MC) to analyze the prepayment characteristics of MBS, a representative financial instrument with embedded options, when interest rates fluctuate; on this basis, the effectiveness of effective duration management of interest rate risk is demonstrated with asset liability management cases of commercial banks.

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