scholarly journals CANDIDE et la monnaie

2009 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 75-103
Author(s):  
Jean-Pierre Aubry ◽  
Pierre Duguay
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Structural Equations ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Structure Equations

Abstract In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector. The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite. In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing. In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.

Dynamic lag structure of deposits and loans interest rates and business cycles formation

2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 114-132
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Structural Dynamic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real

Purpose This paper aims to study the structural dynamic behaviour of the depositors, banks and investors and the role of banks in the business cycles. The authors test the hypothesis: do banks’ behaviour make oscillations in the economy via interest rate? Design/methodology/approach The authors dichotomized banking activities into two markets: deposit and loan. The first market forms deposit interest rate, and the second market forms credit interest rate. The authors show that these two types of interest rates have non-synchronized structures, and that is why money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transferred to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Findings The empirical results show that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in money and real economy, as well as through interest rates. Short-term interest rates had complex roots in their characteristic, while medium and long-term interest rates, though they were second-order difference equations, had real characteristic roots. However, short-term interest rates are the source of oscillation and form the business cycles. Research limitations/implications The authors tested the hypothesis for USA economy, while it needs to be tested for other economies as well. Practical implications The results show that though the source of fluctuations in the real economy comes from short-term interest rates, medium- and long-term interest rates dampen real economy fluctuations and also work as economic stabilisers. Originality/value Regarding the applied method, the topic is new.

scholarly journals WHAT IS THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE RATES OF INTEREST AND PROFIT? AN EMPIRICAL NOTE FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY, 1869-2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 71 (280) ◽  
Author(s):  
Alejandro Valle Baeza ◽  
Ivan Mendieta Muñoz
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The United States ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
United States Economy ◽  
Empirical Note ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Rate Of Profit

The current paper aims to contribute to the study of the relation between the interest rate and the rate of profit by presenting an empirical analysis of the United States economy during the period of 1869 to 2009. The main findings rendered are: 1) the general rate of profit has set an upper limit for the real short-term and long-term interest rates; 2) the real long-term interest rate has undergone similar changes to those of the general rate of profit, whereas the real short-term interest rate has experienced movements opposite to the latter; and 3) evidence supports heterodox theories which stress that monetary policy affects the distribution of income through the modification of the rate of profit.

Hidden “holes” in the capital of banks and the supply of credit to the real sector of economy

2018 ◽  
pp. 49-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. E. Mamonov
Keyword(s):  
Credit Risk ◽  
The Other ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Capital Management ◽  
Loan Loss ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Real ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
The One

Our analysis documents that the existence of hidden “holes” in the capital of not yet failed banks - while creating intertemporal pressure on the actual level of capital - leads to changing of maturity of loans supplied rather than to contracting of their volume. Long-term loans decrease, whereas short-term loans rise - and, what is most remarkably, by approximately the same amounts. Standardly, the higher the maturity of loans the higher the credit risk and, thus, the more loan loss reserves (LLP) banks are forced to create, increasing the pressure on capital. Banks that already hide “holes” in the capital, but have not yet faced with license withdrawal, must possess strong incentives to shorten the maturity of supplied loans. On the one hand, it raises the turnovers of LLP and facilitates the flexibility of capital management; on the other hand, it allows increasing the speed of shifting of attracted deposits to loans to related parties in domestic or foreign jurisdictions. This enlarges the potential size of ex post revealed “hole” in the capital and, therefore, allows us to assume that not every loan might be viewed as a good for the economy: excessive short-term and insufficient long-term loans can produce the source for future losses.

How loan interest rate liberalization affects firms’ loan maturity structure

2014 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianfang Zhou ◽  
Jingjing Wang ◽  
Jianping Ding
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Manufacturing Companies ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
Upper Limit ◽  
Maturity Structure

Purpose – After loan interest rate upper limit deregulation in October 2004, the financing environment in China changed dramatically, and the banks were eligible for risk compensation. The purpose of this paper is to focus on the influence of the loan interest rate liberalization on firms’ loan maturity structure. Design/methodology/approach – Based on Rajan's (1992) model, the authors constructed a trade-off model of how the banks choose long-term and short-term loans scales, and further analyzed banks’ loan term decisions under the loan interest rate upper limit deregulation or collateral cases. Then the authors used an unbalanced panel data set of 586 Chinese listed manufacturing companies and 9,376 observations during the period 1996-2011 to testify the theoretical conclusion. Furthermore, the authors studied the effect on firms with different characteristics of ownership or scale. Findings – The results show that the loan interest rate liberalization significantly decreases the private companies’ reliance on short-term loans and increases sensitivity to interest rates of state-owned companies’ long-term loans. But the results also show that the companies’ ownership still plays a key role on the long-term loans availability. When monetary policy tightened, small companies still have to borrow short-term loans for long-term purposes. As the bank industry is still dominated by state-owned banks and the deposit interest rate has upper limits, the effect of the loan interest rate liberalization on easing long-term credit constraints is limited. Originality/value – From a new perspective, the content and findings of this paper contribute to the study of the effect of the interest rate liberalization on China economy.

scholarly journals The term structure of interest rates and inflation forecast targeting

2011 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 162-179
Author(s):  
Eric Schaling ◽  
Willem Verhagen ◽  
Sylvester Eiffinger
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Term Spread ◽  
State Of The Economy ◽  
Output Persistence

This paper examines the implications of the expectations theory of the term structure of interest rates for the implementation of inflation targeting. We show that the responsiveness of the central bank’s instrument to the underlying state of the economy is increasing in the duration of the long-term bond.  On the other hand, an increase in duration will make long-term inflationary expectations - and therefore also the long-term nominal interest rate - less responsive to the state of the economy. The extent to which the central bank is concerned with output stabilisation will exert a moderating influence on the central bank’s response to leading indicators of future inflation. However, the effect of an increase in this parameter on the long-term nominal interest rate turns out to be ambiguous. Next, we show that both the sensitivity of the nominal term spread to economic fundamentals and the extent to which the spread predicts future output, are increasing in the duration of the long bond and the degree of structural output persistence. However, if the central bank becomes relatively less concerned about inflation stabilisation the term spread will be less successful in predicting real economic activity.

scholarly journals Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
N. V. Artamonov ◽  
D. V. Artamonov ◽  
V. A. Artamonov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Real Gdp

One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables) onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series) on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate), total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates). The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research papers on business and credit cycles all evaluations and inferences are based on "filtered" time series (mostly filtered by Hodrick-Prescott's method). In present paper "causality" always means "Granger causality". All estimations are made in gretl, an open-source multiplatform econometric software.

scholarly journals ROLE OF THE FINANCIAL SECTOR IN FINANCING THE ENTERPRISES OF THE REAL SECTOR OF THE ECONOMY

2018 ◽  
pp. 78-84
Author(s):  
Dmytro Malysh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Bank Loans ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
The Real

Introduction. Financial sector plays an important role in the financing of business entities in the real economy sector. A possibility of rising funds through the stock or banking sector enables substantially to expand the scope of enterprises. However, the presence of permanent financial crises does not allow companies to use these opportunities in full. Therefore, the assessment of state and trends of the stock and banking sectors in the context of the use of their funds to finance companies in the real sector of the economy becomes important. Purpose. The article aims to identify contemporary issues of development of the stock and banking sectors in the context of their ability to finance companies in the real economy. Method. In order to achieve the goal of the research we have used the following methods: method of structural and dynamic analysis and method of economic and statistical analysis of the development of the stock and banking sectors of Ukraine. Results. It has been determined that the deterioration of the stock market in Ukraine led to its exclusion from the list of marginal markets. The largest segment of the Ukrainian stock and banking sector services the issuers, which are owned by the state. At the same time, the financial sector has features of bank-centeredness since banks play a leading role in financing of companies and in transactions of the stock market. Ukrainian stock market mainly carries out operations with government bonds and only a small part of operations provides financing for the activities of companies through the issue of stocks and bonds. The share of long-term sources of funding is gradually decreasing and it is critically low for economic growth of the country. The tempos of providing long-term and short-term bank loans for the company are slowing down. A positive trend is the reduction of interest rates on loans. There is a need to develop effective measures for using opportunities of the stock and banking sectors as well for financing companies in the real sector of the economy.

scholarly journals Modeling The Relationships Between Export, Import, Inflation, Interest Rate, and Rupiah Exchange

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 247-262
Author(s):  
Nina Valentika ◽  
Vivi Iswanti Nursyirwan ◽  
Ilmadi Ilmadi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Variable Model ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Long Run

This research was a modification of research by Catalbas (2016) and Pratikto (2012). The model that can separate long-term and short-term components are the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). This study aimed to model export, import, inflation, interest rates, and the rupiah exchange rate using VECM and to test the causality between variables using the Granger Causality test. The inter-variable model obtained in this study was VECM with lag 2 using a deterministic trend with the assumption of none intercept no trend and two cointegrations. In export and import, there was an adjustment mechanism from the short-term to the long-term. This research model was appropriate to forecast the export and import where VECM with export and import as the target variables, the cointegration equation (long-run model) for  cointegration equation (long-run model) for Based on the Granger Causality test, it was found that there was a one-way relationship between exchange rates and inflation, export and interest rates, export and import, inflation and export, and import and the interest rate at the significance level of 5%.

scholarly journals AN ESSAY ON CONSUMPTION HYPOTHESES: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (01) ◽  
pp. 23-32
Author(s):  
Khalid Khan ◽  
Marguerite Wotto ◽  
Saima Liaqat
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Aggregate Consumption ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Consumption Decision ◽  
Yearly Data

In this study, the ARDL method is used to assess short-term and longterm relationships between private consumption, labor income, interest rate, wealth, and unemployment rate. The real private consumption model for Pakistan has been estimated by applying yearly data from 1990 to 2016. According to long-term estimates, income and wealth determine the actual national consumption. Nevertheless, the short run national private consumption is determined by current incomes, wealth, real interest rates, and the unemployment rate. Findings of this study reveal significant impact of all the observed determinants of consumption function i.e. real disposable income, wealth, real interest rate, and unemployment rate on aggregate consumption. Whereas it is noteworthy that the coefficient for wealth was minor but significant, depicting slight impact of wealth on consumption decision. These results support validity of AIH for Pakistan.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document