scholarly journals Dissecting the purchasing managers’ index: Are all relevant components included? Are all included components relevant?

2018 ◽  
Vol 65 (4) ◽  
pp. 381-394
Author(s):  
Boriss Siliverstovs
Keyword(s):  
Characteristic Feature ◽  
International Comparison ◽  
Weighting Scheme ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Purchasing Managers

In this paper we scrutinise the composition of one of the most renowned economic indicators that is regularly released for more than 30 countries and regions. The composite Purchasing Managers? Index (PMI) is constructed by pooling several survey based sub-components with certain fixed weights. Its characteristic feature is that its computation is based on the standardised methodology by that was developed for the PMI in the US more than thirty years ago. Though the uniform methodology makes the international comparison of national PMIs an easy and transparent task, it is not immediately clear whether the current fixed weighting scheme of the PMI components is supported by the data for other countries than US. We address this question using Switzerland as an example and our approach, based on Boriss Siliverstovs (2017), can be easily extended to other national PMIs. We find that the relative weights of the PMI components are generally supported by the data, except the fact that one component, found very informative for explaining GDP growth, is currently omitted from the PMI composition.

Prospects for Individual Economies

2010 ◽  
Vol 214 ◽  
pp. F14-F22
Keyword(s):  
Housing Market ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Forecast Horizon ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
The Us ◽  
Current Account Imbalances

The pace of economic recovery in the US eased in the second quarter of 2010, with quarter-on-quarter GDP growth moderating from 0.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 0.4 per cent. The source of the slowdown stemmed from a negative contribution to growth from net trade, as import volumes rose by 7.5 per cent on the back of a sharp acceleration in domestic demand. This allowed the US current account balance to widen to 3.4 per cent of GDP. Our forecast sees the current account balance hovering between 2½–3½ per cent of GDP over the forecast horizon, well below the 6½ per cent of GDP deficits seen at the height of the housing market bubble in 2005–6. NIESR's index of global imbalances, illustrated in appendix chart B3, clearly shows that global current account imbalances have receded from the unsustainable levels reached in 2007.

Ageing workforce will dampen South Korea’s GDP outlook

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Free Trade ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Us South ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Ageing Workforce ◽  
Pull Out ◽  
The Us ◽  
Net Export

Significance Year-on-year GDP growth was little changed at 2.7% in the first quarter after easing to 2.8% in 2015 and 2016 from an average of 3.7% in the five years to 2014. In 2016 consumer spending grew by less than 2.5%, machinery investment did not grow at all and net export volumes subtracted from growth. Impacts The US administration may threaten to pull out of the US-South Korea free-trade deal unless terms are renegotiated. Samsung in the first quarter of 2017 reported its best profits since 2013, but it will face an increasingly competitive market. Talk of reunification with North Korea as a solution to demographic pressures is fanciful.

Economic indicators for the US transportation sector

2006 ◽  
Vol 40 (10) ◽  
pp. 872-887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kajal Lahiri ◽  
Vincent Wenxiong Yao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Transportation Sector ◽  
The Us

World Overview: Oil Prices and the Fiscal Stance

2011 ◽  
Vol 216 ◽  
pp. F10-F17
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Aurélie Delannoy ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Advanced Economies ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
Macro Variables

At the global level, GDP growth accelerated to 1.2 per cent in the final quarter of 2010 according to NIESR estimates — largely driven by a sharp rise in domestic demand in China, which more than offset a slowdown in world trade growth that originated in the US. The economic recovery in the advanced economies remains lacklustre. The sharp rise in the oil price in recent months has exacerbated the effects on output of the protracted downturn in global investment and a tighter fiscal policy stance, at least in Europe. High commodity prices will push inflation in the OECD close to 3 per cent both this year and next. At the global level we expect GDP growth to moderate from an estimated 5.2 per cent in 2010 to just below 4½ per cent per annum in 2011–12, with around half of this slowdown attributable to the effects of the increase in oil prices between October 2010 and April 2011. The key assumptions underlying this forecast are discussed in Appendix A, with our forecasts for key macro variables in 40 major economies detailed in Appendix B.

scholarly journals Implikationen der neuen europäischen Ökonomie

2006 ◽  
Vol 36 (144) ◽  
pp. 325-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Jürgen Bieling
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
European Integration ◽  
Financial Integration ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Economic Indicators ◽  
Securities Markets ◽  
The Us ◽  
Mode Of Operation

From the mid 1980s onwards, successive deepening and widening of European integration has led to the emergence of a new European economy. Its mode of operation is increasingly subjected to the dynamics of global and European financial markets. This article addresses the question inasmuch financial integration has an impact on the transformation of continental European systems of production and innovation. It argues that this impact is rather negative. For, although financial integration is geared towards the US model, it is not able to capitalise on its economic advantages. On the contrary, economic indicators underline that the previous productive strength and innovative ability of continental European systems are impaired by the dominant role of securities markets.

World Overview

2011 ◽  
Vol 217 ◽  
pp. F11-F14
Author(s):  
Dawn Holland ◽  
Aurélie Delannoy ◽  
Tatiana Fic ◽  
Ian Hurst ◽  
Ali Orazgani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Precautionary Savings ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Wages ◽  
Supply Chain Disruptions ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Moderate Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Fiscal Austerity

GDP growth in the OECD group of economies moderated in the first quarter of 2011, reflecting a contraction in output in Japan related to the earthquake in March 2011 and a slowdown in the US economy. This was partly offset by an acceleration of growth in the Euro Area, to some extent attributable to a weather related rebound in Northern Europe, but also a strong rise in business investment in Germany and France. Moderate growth at the OECD level persisted into the second quarter. Supply-chain disruptions continued to affect Japan; the high oil price eroded real wages, exacerbating the effect of high unemployment on consumption in the US; the deepening sovereign debt crisis in Europe raised uncertainty, leading to a rise in precautionary savings even in countries not restrained by severe fiscal austerity programmes. Outside the OECD, China and India continue to drive world growth, although rising inflation points to more moderate prospects in the second half of the year. We forecast global GDP growth of about 4½ per cent per annum in both 2011 and 2012, compared to 5 per cent growth recorded in 2010. The key assumptions underlying this forecast are discussed in Appendix A, with our forecasts for key macro variables in 40 major economies detailed in Appendix B.

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