Relevance of research. In order to ensure energy independence and food security of the state in the context of current climate change trends, the importance of reclaimed territories is increasing. By objectively assessing the agro-resource potential of individual regions and developing a strategy for its rational use, it is possible to significantly improve the productivity, stability, environmental balance and economic efficiency of agro-ecosystems. Objective of research. The objective of the research is to assess the water supply of the territory of Ukraine under changing climate and establish the mechanism of its influence on the bioproductivity of agricultural lands, theoretically substantiate and elaborate perspective options for the development of bioenergy reclaimed agroecosystems and specify the research areas on the reassessment of rational use of water resources in optimal combination with other components of agricultural production in a rapidly changing climate. Research methodology. The estimation and forecasting of the conditions of water supply were carried out on the basis of the climate water balance (CWB). Spatial analysis of climate data and crop yields was performed by IDW interpolation using QGIS3 software. To determine the promising areas for the development of agricultural production systems the results of stationary field experiments were used, which were processed by conventional methods of system analysis. Promising scenarios for the development of reclaimed agroecosystems were created using multivariate computer simulation in the “Agroecosystem” software package.
Research results and main conclusions. It was established that, compared to 1961-1990, the area with a water supply shortage increased from 56 to 60%, and the area of sufficient and excessive humidity, on the contrary, decreased from 33 to 24%. Provided that the general trend of increasing temperature in the territory of Ukraine continues, the share of agricultural lands with scarce water balance by 2050 may increase up to 67%, and by 2100 – up to 80% of their total area. It was found that grain production remains at the level of 1990 in the steppe zone due to almost annual lack of moisture while in the forest-steppe and Polissia regions it increased up to 80-90%. It is important that, even in the humid zone, the risks of adverse water and air conditions for soils increased significantly, particularly as regards the soils of light texture. Consequently, sustainable high-yield agriculture without the development and implementation of effective regional measures on improving water supply is becoming problematic in most of Ukraine. Based on computer simulation, it was proved that the transition of domestic agricultural production to the principles of balanced organic food production, industrial raw materials and bioenergy resources will dramatically increase the profitability of agricultural enterprises, improve the ecological state of the environment and create a comfortable living environment for rural population and substantially strengthen the food security and energy independence of the state. Prospects. To achieve high efficiency and competitiveness of the agroindustrial complex of Ukraine, it is necessary to carry out a comprehensive study on the reassessment of rational use of water resources in optimal combination with other components of agricultural production under rapidly changing climate. On this scientific basis, it is advisable to create a unified system of water management for the effective use of the state's land fund, in particular the reclaimed areas.
EVALUATION OF THE ACTIVITY LOCATIONAL PATTERN BASED ON THE WATER SUPPLY FOOTPRINT INDEX-CONSIDERATION OF WATER BALANCE FOR LOCAL PLANNING-