scholarly journals Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change on Streamflows Upstream of Khanpur Dam, Pakistan using Soil and Water Assessment Tool

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 1090 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saima Nauman ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Abdul Halim Bin Ghazali ◽  
Badronnisa Yusuf
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Minimum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

The study aims to evaluate the long-term changes in meteorological parameters and to quantify their impacts on water resources of the Haro River watershed located on the upstream side of Khanpur Dam in Pakistan. The climate data was obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projection (NEX-GDDP) for MIROC-ESM model under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The model data was bias corrected and the performance of the bias correction was assessed statistically. Soil and Water Assessment Tool was used for the hydrological simulation of watershed followed by model calibration using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version-2. The study is useful for devising strategies for future management of Khanpur Dam. The study indicated that in the future, at Murree station (P-1), the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were anticipated to increase from 3.1 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.0 °C (RCP 8.5), 3.2 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.3 °C (RCP 8.5) and 8.6% to 13.5% respectively, in comparison to the baseline period. Similarly, at Islamabad station (P-2), the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation were projected to increase from 3.3 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.1 °C (RCP 8.5), 3.3 °C (RCP 4.5) to 4.2 °C (RCP 8.5) and 14.0% to 21.2% respectively compared to baseline period. The streamflows at Haro River basin were expected to rise from 8.7 m3/s to 9.3 m3/s.

scholarly journals A Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Modeling Approach to Prioritize Soil Conservation Management in River Basin Critical Areas Coupled With Future Climate Scenario Analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 117862212110213
Author(s):  
Ashish Pandey ◽  
K. C. Bishal ◽  
Praveen Kalura ◽  
V. M. Chowdary ◽  
C. S. Jha ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Critical Areas ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

About 44% of the Indian landmass experiences the adverse impact of land degradation. This loss of sediments caused by soil erosion reduces the water quality of local water bodies and decreases agricultural land productivity. Therefore, decision-makers must formulate policies and management practices for sustainable management of basins that are cost-effective and environment friendly. Application of the best management practices (BMPs) to properly manage river basins is difficult and time-consuming. Its implication under various climate change scenarios makes it more complicated but necessary to achieve sustainable development. In this study, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was employed to prioritize the Tons river basin’s critical areas in the central Indian states coupled with future climate scenario analysis (2030–2050) using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for simulation of streamflow and sediment yield for daily and monthly scales using the sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2) technique. The values of coefficient of determination ( R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), and root mean square error (RMSE)-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR) were .71, .70, −8.3, and .54, respectively during the calibration period, whereas for validation the values were .72, .71, −3.9, and .56, respectively. SWAT model underestimated the discharge during calibration and overestimated the discharge during validation. Model simulations for sediment load exhibited a similar trend as streamflow simulation, where higher values are reported during August and September. The average annual sediment yield of the basin for the baseline period was 6.85 Mg ha−1, which might increase to 8.66 Mg ha−1 and 8.79 Mg ha−1 in the future years 2031–2050 and 2081–2099, respectively. The BMPs such as recharge structure, contour farming, filter strip 3 and 6 m, porous gully plugs, zero tillage, and conservation tillage operations have been considered to evaluate the soil and water conservation measures. Recharge structure appeared to be the most effective measure with a maximum reduction of sediment by 38.98% during the baseline period, and a 37.15% reduction in the future scenario. Sub-watersheds, namely SW-8, SW-10, SW-12, SW-13, SW-14, SW-17, SW-19, SW-21, SW-22, and SW-23, fall under the high category and are thus considered a critical prone area for the implementation and evaluation of BMPs. Compared to the baseline period, the effectiveness of BMPs is slightly decreasing in the 2040s, increasing in the 2070s and decreasing in the 2090s. Recharge structure and filter strip 6 m have been found to nullify the high soil erosion class completely. Overall, SWAT model simulations under the RCP 8.5 scenarios were observed to be reliable and can be adopted to identify critical areas for river basins having similar climatic and geographical conditions.

scholarly journals A hydrological modelling-based approach for vulnerable area identification under changing climate scenarios

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sonam S. Dash ◽  
Dipaka R. Sena ◽  
Uday Mandal ◽  
Anil Kumar ◽  
Gopal Kumar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Vulnerable Area ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Critical Zones

Abstract The hydrologic behaviour of the Brahmani River basin (BRB) (39,633.90 km2), India was assessed for the base period (1970–1999) and future climate scenarios (2050) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Monthly streamflow data of 2000–2009 and 2010–2012 was used for calibration and validation, respectively, and performed satisfactorily with Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (ENS) of 0.52–0.55. The projected future climatic outcomes of the HadGEM2-ES model indicated that minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and precipitation may increase by 1.11–3.72 °C, 0.27–2.89 °C, and 16–263 mm, respectively, by 2050. The mean annual streamflow over the basin may increase by 20.86, 11.29, 4.45, and 37.94% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, whereas the sediment yield is likely to increase by 23.34, 10.53, 2.45, and 27.62% under RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively, signifying RCP 8.5 to be the most adverse scenario for the BRB. Moreover, a ten-fold increase in environmental flow (defined as Q90) by the mid-century period is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The vulnerable area assessment revealed that the increase in moderate and high erosion-prone regions will be more prevalent in the mid-century. The methodology developed herein could be successfully implemented for identification and prioritization of critical zones in worldwide river basins.

scholarly journals Assessment of Surface Runoff using ArcSWAT for Rela Watershed, Rajasthan, India

2020 ◽  
pp. 22-32
Author(s):  
K. Hema Narayana Reddy ◽  
Mahesh Kothari ◽  
K. S. Reddy ◽  
P. K. Singh ◽  
K. K. Yadav
Keyword(s):  
Management Practices ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Soil Survey ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
National Bureau ◽  
Landsat Images ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

The current study based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which coordinates the GIS data with attribute database set to assess the runoff of Rela Watershed. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is based on distributed parameter model which has been created to forecast runoff, sediment, erosion and nutrient transport from agrarian watersheds under various management practices. The SWAT Model works related to Arc GIS. In the current study the catchment region has been delineated utilizing the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and afterward partitioned into 29 sub-watersheds or sub-basins. For planning of landuse map, the LANDSAT images are downloaded from earth explorer and the soil mapis obtained from NBSS (National Bureau of Soil Survey, Udaipur). The sub basins are partitioned into 29 HRUs which represents Hydrological Response Unit. At that point by utilizing 30 years of every day precipitation information and daily minimum and maximum temperature information SWAT simulation is accomplished for consistent schedule to estimate Runoff. The insights indicated diverse runoff framework esteem during the time 19.5 mm being the most minimal and 527.3 mm being the maximum runoff for Rela Watershed. The average annual runoff is 162.6 mm i.e. 28% of total rainfall in Rela Watershed.

Projection of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution loads for a forest dominant dam watershed by reflecting future vegetation canopy in a Soil and Water Assessment Tool model

2010 ◽  
Vol 61 (8) ◽  
pp. 1975-1986 ◽  
Author(s):  
Min J. Park ◽  
Jong Y. Park ◽  
Hyung J. Shin ◽  
Mi S. Lee ◽  
Geun A. Park ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nonpoint Source Pollution ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Nonpoint Source ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Canopy ◽  
Area Index ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

This study is to assess the future impact of climate change on hydrological behavior considering future vegetation canopy prediction and its propagation to nonpoint source pollution (NPS) loads. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used for the assessment. For a forest dominant ChungjuDam watershed of South Korea, the MIROC3.2hires climate data of SRES A1B and B1 scenarios were adopted and downscaled for the watershed. The future vegetation canopy information was projected by the monthly relationship between Terra MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) LAI (Leaf Area Index) and temperature. The future predicted LAI increased up to 1.9 in 2080s April and October because of the temperature increase 3.6°C and 5.3°C respectively. By reflecting the future LAI changes, the future estimated percent changes of maximum annual dam inflow, SS, T-N, and T-P were + 42.5% in 2080s A1B,−35.6% in 2020s A1B,+73.7% in 2080s A1B and−21.0% in 2080s B1 scenario respectively. The increase of T-N load was from the increase of subsurface lateral flows and the groundwater recharges by the future rainfall increase. The decrease of T-P load was by decrease of sediment load during wet days because the effect of LAI increase is greater than the increase of rainfall.

scholarly journals Appraisal of Climate Change and Its Impact on Water Resources of Pakistan: A Case Study of Mangla Watershed

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (10) ◽  
pp. 1071
Author(s):  
Haroon Haider ◽  
Muhammad Zaman ◽  
Shiyin Liu ◽  
Muhammad Saifullah ◽  
Muhammad Usman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Increase ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Water Assessment

Water resources are highly dependent on climatic variations. The quantification of climate change impacts on surface water availability is critical for agriculture production and flood management. The current study focuses on the projected streamflow variations in the transboundary Mangla Dam watershed. Precipitation and temperature changes combined with future water assessment in the watershed are projected by applying multiple downscaling techniques for three periods (2021–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099). Streamflows are simulated by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the outputs of five global circulation models (GCMs) and their ensembles under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Spatial and temporal changes in defined future flow indexes, such as base streamflow, average flow, and high streamflow have been investigated in this study. Results depicted an overall increase in average annual flows under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 up until 2099. The maximum values of low flow, median flow, and high flows under RCP 4.5 were found to be 55.96 m3/s, 856.94 m3/s, and 7506.2 m3/s and under RCP 8.5, 63.29 m3/s, 945.26 m3/s, 7569.8 m3/s, respectively, for these ensembles GCMs till 2099. Under RCP 4.5, the maximum increases in maximum temperature (Tmax), minimum temperature (Tmin), precipitation (Pr), and average annual streamflow were estimated as 5.3 °C, 2.0 °C, 128.4%, and 155.52%, respectively, up until 2099. In the case of RCP 8.5, the maximum increase in these hydro-metrological variables was up to 8.9 °C, 8.2 °C, 180.3%, and 181.56%, respectively, up until 2099. The increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs under RCP 4.5 were found to be 1.95 °C, 1.68 °C and 93.28% (2021–2039), 1.84 °C, 1.34 °C, and 75.88%(2040–2069), 1.57 °C, 1.27 °C and 72.7% (2070–2099), respectively. Under RCP 8.5, the projected increases in Tmax, Tmin, and Pr using ensemble GCMs were found as 2.26 °C, 2.23 °C and 78.65% (2021–2039), 2.73 °C, 2.53 °C, and 83.79% (2040–2069), 2.80 °C, 2.63 °C and 67.89% (2070–2099), respectively. Three seasons (spring, winter, and autumn) showed a remarkable increase in streamflow, while the summer season showed a decrease in inflows. Based on modeling results, it is expected that the Mangla Watershed will experience more frequent extreme flow events in the future, due to climate change. These results indicate that the study of climate change’s impact on the water resources under a suitable downscaling technique is imperative for proper planning and management of the water resources.

scholarly journals AVALIAÇÃO DO EFEITO DE MUDANÇAS CLIMÁTICAS NA VAZÃO E TRANSPORTE DE SEDIMENTOS NA BACIA HIDROGRÁFICA DO RIO NHUNDIAQUARA, SERRA DO MAR PARANAENSE

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-42
Author(s):  
Bruna Daniela de Araujo Taveira ◽  
Irani Dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Serra Do Mar ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water

O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o efeito do cenário climático futuro RCP 8.5 (IPCC, 2013) na vazão e no transporte de sedimentos na bacia hidrográfica do rio Nhundiaquara, utilizando como ferramenta metodológica o modelo hidrológico SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool). O efeito do cenário climático RCP 8.5 foi avaliado em dois períodos: futuro próximo (2060 a 2080) e futuro distante (2080 a 2100), e comparado com a série histórica (1994-2014). A variabilidade entre as séries climatológicas (histórica e futuras) apontaram o aumento de 20,5% na temperatura média mínima, de 6,3% na temperatura média máxima e a redução de 15% nas alturas de precipitação até o ano de 2100.  Além disso, houve mudanças no volume e na frequência das chuvas, que se mostraram menores e mais frequentes nos cenários futuros do que na série histórica. O modelo SWAT foi calibrado e validado no período das séries observadas, apresentando índice de eficiência COE de 0,692 para vazão e 0,704 para sedimentos. Os resultados da simulação com os dados climáticos do cenário RCP 8.5 apontaram a redução de 20,6% na evapotranspiração real (ET) no futuro próximo e 8,3% no futuro distante, na evapotranspiração potencial (PET) a redução foi de 3,5% e 1,4% nos futuros próximo e distante, respectivamente. A vazão apresentou redução de 19,5% entre 2060 e 2080 e de 23,5% entre 2080 e 2100. Para vazão sólida, a redução foi de 15,4% no futuro próximo e 19,9% no futuro distante. De maneira geral, os resultados apontam que a redução na vazão e no transporte de sedimentos está mais associada às mudanças no volume e na frequência da precipitação, do que ao aumento da temperatura.

scholarly journals Modeling of climate change in cold arid regions of north western Himalayas using multiple linear regression (MLR)

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 474-479
Author(s):  
Junaid N. Khan ◽  
Asima Jillani ◽  
Syed Rouhullah Ali ◽  
Zarka Rashid ◽  
Zikra Rehman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Western Himalayas ◽  
Temperature Minimum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Near Future ◽  
North Western ◽  
Far Future

The present study aimed at modeling the impacts of climate change on precipitation and temperature and its trend in the context of changing climate in cold arid regions of north western Himalayas using multiple linear regression (MLR) model. The study was carried out in three different time slices viz., near future (2017-2045), mid future (2046-2072) and far future (2073-2099). The study includes the calibration of the observed climate data (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation) for fourteen years (2002-2015) and the outputs of downscaled scenario A2 of the Global Climate Model (GCM) data of Hadley Centre Coupled Model, (HadCM3) was used for validation, for the future. Daily climate (maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation) scenarios were generated from 1961 to 2099 under A2 defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). During calibration, the maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation showed decreasing trend. During validation, the maximum temperature showed an increasing trend in near future (2017- 2045) and decreasing trend in mid (2046-2072) and far future (2073-2099). While as, the minimum temperature and precipitation showed an increasing trend and decreasing trend respectively, in three futuristic phases. After validation, on comparison with the measured data, the variation in maximum temperature was found -2.59 oC in near future, -3.17 oC in mid future and -3.41 oC in far future. Similarly, for minimum temperature and precipitation, the variations with observed data were found 0.91 oC and -32.2 mm, respectively in near future, 2.01 oC and -34.6 mm, respectively in mid future, 4.08 oC and -3.4 mm, respectively in far future. These changes may be found due to global warming which lead to decrease in average annual precipitation and increase in average minimum temperatures causing the melting of glaciers.

AN EVALUATION OF BLUE WATER PREDICTION IN SOUTHERN PART OF IRAN USING THE SOIL AND WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL (SWAT)

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 175-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Salarpour ◽  
Milad Jajarmizadeh ◽  
Sobri Harun ◽  
Rozi Abdullah
Keyword(s):  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Blue Water ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water
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