scholarly journals Evidence of climate change impact on stream low flow from the tropical mountain rainforest watershed in Hainan Island, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 293-302 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhang Zhou ◽  
Ying Ouyang ◽  
Zhijun Qiu ◽  
Guangyi Zhou ◽  
Mingxian Lin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Hainan Island ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Time Increment ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Change Impact

Stream low flow estimates are central to assessing climate change impact, water resource management, and ecosystem restoration. This study investigated the impacts of climate change upon stream low flows from a rainforest watershed in Jianfengling (JFL) Mountain, Hainan Island, China, using the low flow selection method as well as the frequency and probability analysis technique. Results showed that low flow at this watershed over a period of 18 years (1990–2007) was 0.58 m3/s and its recurrence probability and recurrence interval were, respectively, 99% and 1.01 years for low flow with a 60-day duration. Low flow rate decreased linearly both as time increment elapsed (R2 = 0.62, p < 0.01) and as air temperature rose (R2 = 0.60, p < 0.05), whereas the recurrence intervals of low flow were shorter (or occurred more frequently) as time increment elapsed. In contrast, no correlation existed between annual rainfall and low flow for this watershed, indicating that rainfall was not a factor influencing stream low flows. Since there were little to no anthropogenic activities rather than air temperature rise over time at this watershed, we attributed the decreased rate and frequent occurrence of low flow to the warming air temperature as time elapsed.

scholarly journals Estimating the Relative Uncertainties Sourced from GCMs and Hydrological Models in Modeling Climate Change Impact on Runoff

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 122-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Teng ◽  
Jai Vaze ◽  
Francis H. S. Chiew ◽  
Biao Wang ◽  
Jean-Michel Perraud
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Modeling ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Climate Series

Abstract This paper assesses the relative uncertainties from GCMs and from hydrological models in modeling climate change impact on runoff across southeast Australia. Five lumped conceptual daily rainfall–runoff models are used to model runoff using historical daily climate series and using future climate series obtained by empirically scaling the historical climate series informed by simulations from 15 GCMs. The majority of the GCMs project a drier future for this region, particularly in the southern parts, and this is amplified as a bigger reduction in the runoff. The results indicate that the uncertainty sourced from the GCMs is much larger than the uncertainty in the rainfall–runoff models. The variability in the climate change impact on runoff results for one rainfall–runoff model informed by 15 GCMs (an about 28%–35% difference between the minimum and maximum results for mean annual, mean seasonal, and high runoff) is considerably larger than the variability in the results between the five rainfall–runoff models informed by 1 GCM (a less than 7% difference between the minimum and maximum results). The difference between the rainfall–runoff modeling results is larger in the drier regions for scenarios of big declines in future rainfall and in the low-flow characteristics. The rainfall–runoff modeling here considers only the runoff sensitivity to changes in the input climate data (primarily daily rainfall), and the difference between the hydrological modeling results is likely to be greater if potential changes in the climate–runoff relationship in a warmer and higher CO2 environment are modeled.

scholarly journals Uncertainty assessment of future projections on water resources according to climate downscaling and hydrological models

2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 597-607 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moon-Hwan Lee ◽  
Deg-Hyo Bae
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Dominant Source ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Dam Inflow ◽  
Selection Of

Abstract Quantifying the uncertainty of future projection is important to assess the reliable climate change impact. In this sense, this study is aimed at investigating the uncertainty sources of various water variables (seasonal dam inflow, 1-day maximum dam inflow, and 30-day minimum dam inflow) according to downscaling methods and hydrological modeling. Five regional climate models (RCMs), five statistical post-processing methods and two hydrological models were applied for the uncertainty analysis. The changes for seasonal dam inflow are 0.1, 58.8, 5.1, and 1.1 mm for the SWAT model and 2.1, 76.1, −8.5, and −2.9 mm for the VIC model in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The effects of the hydrological model is smaller than that of RCM for future projections of the seasonal dam inflow. The changes of annual 1-day maximum dam inflow vary according to the selection of RCM whereas the changes of annual 30-day minimum dam inflow are sensitive to the selection of hydrological model. The RCM is the dominant source of uncertainty of all seasonal dam inflow (except for winter) and high flow, whereas the hydrological model is the dominant source of uncertainty in winter dam inflow and low flow. Considering these results, the appropriate multi-model ensemble chain according to target variable will be necessary for reliable climate change impact assessment.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on water supply demands: case study of the city of Skopje

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 2172-2178 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katerina Donevska ◽  
Angelco Panov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drinking Water ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The City

Abstract The aim of the paper is to present the climate change impact on drinking water supply, and to assess the availability of current water resources to meet the increasing demands in climate change conditions, for the city of Skopje. Series of monthly precipitation and temperature data are estimated up to 2050, using recorded data and data for predicted changes of air temperature and precipitation according to climate change scenarios. Climate change impact on drinking water supply is assessed using multi-regression models for the dependence of the water supply data on the main climate parameters: temperature and precipitation. Forecast of future water quantities includes implementation of multi-regression models defined with a set of independent variables: the number of the population for time sets (t, t-1, t-2, t-3), precipitation and air temperature including predicted changes of the data under climate change conditions for the same time sets. Two scenarios are analysed: the first predicts that the number of the population until 2050 remains nearly the same as nowadays, the second predicts an increase of the number of the population at an average annual rate of increase of 0.58%. Results indicate shortage of available water resources for population and industry in climate change scenarios (increase of temperatures and decrease of precipitation) and increase of population.

scholarly journals Changes in water discharges of the Baltic states rivers in the 20th century and its relation to climate change

2007 ◽  
Vol 38 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 401-412 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Reihan ◽  
T. Koltsova ◽  
J. Kriauciuniene ◽  
L. Lizuma ◽  
D. Meilutyte-Barauskiene
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Baltic States ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Baltic

The river discharge changes in three Baltic States and its relation to changes in the main climatic variables such as precipitation and air temperature were analyzed using observed data and methods of empirical statistical analysis. The study is important for the development of efficient water resource management systems and validation of climate change impact models. The application of the Mann-Kendall test reveals that a significant increasing trend in winter air temperature and precipitation was determined for all 3 investigated periods (1923–2003, 1941–2003 and 1961–2003). The same trend was found for the winter and annual discharge time series. No trend was observed for the spring, summer and autumn seasonal streamflow and summer low flow series for most of the Baltic region. In general the relation between the main meteorological and hydrological parameters and the tendency in river discharge trends is common for all of the Baltic States, and might be associated with the regional impacts of global climate change.

scholarly journals Future changes in hydrological extremes of a Mediterranean catchment: what can we say in an uncertainty context?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lila Collet ◽  
Thibault Lemaitre-Basset ◽  
Guillaume Thirel ◽  
Juraj Parajka ◽  
Guillaume Evin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Uncertainty Analysis ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Total Uncertainty ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Hydrological Hazards ◽  
Change Impact

<p><span>The Mediterranean region is a hot spot for climate change impact on the water cycle where water resources are anticipated to decrease and hydrological extremes to intensify while population and water use conflicts growth would keep rising. However, the analysis of the uncertainty related to hydrological projections is generally poorly quantified and difficult to translate to decision-makers. In this study, an in-depth analysis of projections and uncertainties for extreme high- and low-flows was performed. Climatic projections derived from a recent downscaling method over France (Adamont, Verfaillie et al., 2017) were used, and hydrological projections were produced on the Hérault River catchment based on two different Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), five global and regional climate model (GCM/RCM) couples, three hydrological models (HMs), and twenty-nine calibration schemes (Lemaitre-Basset et al., sub). This ensemble was analysed with the QUALYPSO approach (Evin et al., 2019) that allows transient uncertainty analysis of ensembles derived from incomplete GCM/RCM matrix. The quasi-ergodic analysis of variance (QE-ANOVA) used in QUALYPSO evaluates the contribution of each impact modelling step to the total uncertainty. For high-flows, GCMs and RCPs contribute the most to the total uncertainty at the short and long lead-time, respectively. For low-flows, HMs structure and calibration period are the most important sources of uncertainty across 2006-2100. While high-flow projections show a significant mean increase of 30% by 2085 compared to the historical period (confidence intervals: [-1%; +64%]), low-flows would slightly decrease (-7%) by 2085, but with a higher uncertainty (confidence interval: [-24%; +13%]). The time horizons for which a change (e.g. -50, -20, -10, …, +10, +20, +50%) in high- and low-flows intensity becomes robust (i.e. when more than 66% of the ensemble is above/below a given threshold) were also assessed. This provides strong messages to water managers of the Hérault River catchment who can then anticipate the time needed to prepare and adapt to climate change impacts for extreme hydrological hazards.</span></p><p>References:</p><p>Evin, G., Hingray, B., Blanchet, J., Eckert, N., Morin, S., & Verfaillie, D. (2019). Partitioning Uncertainty Components of an Incomplete Ensemble of Climate Projections Using Data Augmentation. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 32, 18. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0606.1</p><p>Lemaitre-Basset, T., Collet, L., Thirel, G., Parajka, J., Evin, G., Hingray, B. (submitted) Climate change impact and uncertainty analysis on hydrological extremes in a Mediterranean catchment. Hydrological Sciences Journal</p><p>Verfaillie, D., Déqué, M., Morin, S., & Lafaysse, M. (2017). The method ADAMONT v1.0 for statistical adjustment of climate projections applicable to energy balance land surface models. Geoscientific Model Development, 10(11), 4257–4283. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4257-2017</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Recharge in Northern Thailand

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
Surface Water And Groundwater ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Change Impact

Climate change is progressing and is now one of the most important global challenges for humanities. Water resources management is one of the key challenges to reduce disaster risk. In Northern Thailand, flood and drought have always occurred because of the climate change impact and non-systematic management in the conjunctive use of both sources of water. Therefore, this study aims to assess the climate change impact on surface water and groundwater of the Yom and Nan river basins, located in the upper part of Thailand. The surface water and groundwater regimes are generated by a fully coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model. The future climate scenarios are considered from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, presented by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in order to mainly focus on the minimum and maximum Green House Gas (GHG) emissions scenarios during the near future (2021–2045) periods. The results show that the average annual air temperature rises by approximately 0.5–0.6 °C and 0.9–1.0 °C under the minimum (RCP 2.6) and maximum (RCP 8.5) GHG emission scenarios, respectively. The annual rainfall, obtained from both scenarios, increased by the same range of 20–200 mm/year, on average. The summation of surface water (water yield) and groundwater recharge (water percolation) in the Yom river basin decreased by 443.98 and 316.77 million m3/year under the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. While, in the Nan river basin, it is projected to increase by 355 million m3/year under RCP 2.6 but decrease by 20.79 million m3/year under RCP 8.5. These quantitative changes can directly impact water availability when evaluating the water demand for consumption, industry, and agriculture.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on the Magnitude and Timing of Hydrological Extremes Across Great Britain

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosanna A. Lane ◽  
Alison L. Kay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Great Britain ◽  
Return Period ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Hydrological Extremes ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Maximum Flows

Climate change could intensify hydrological extremes, changing not just the magnitude but also the timing of flood and drought events. Understanding these potential future changes to hydrological extremes at the national level is critical to guide policy decisions and ensure adequate adaptation measures are put in place. Here, climate change impact on the magnitude and timing of extreme flows is modelled across Great Britain (GB), using an ensemble of climate data from the latest UK Climate Projections product (UKCP18) and a national grid-based hydrological model. All ensemble members show large reductions in low flows, of around −90 to −25% for 10-year return period low flows by 2050–2080. The direction of change for high flows is uncertain, but increases in 10-year return period high flows of over 9% are possible across most of the country. Simultaneous worsening of both extremes (i.e., a reduction in low flows combined with an increase in high flows) are projected in the west. Changes to flow timing are also projected; with mostly earlier annual maximum flows across Scotland, later annual maximum flows across England and Wales, and later low flows across GB. However, these changes are generally not statistically significant due to the high interannual variability of annual maximum/minimum flow timing. These results highlight the need for adaptation strategies that can cope with a wide range of future changes in hydrological extremes, and consider changes in the timing as well as magnitude.

scholarly journals Climate Change and Water Exploitation as Co-Impact Sources on River Benthic Macroinvertebrates

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 2778
Author(s):  
Francesca Salmaso ◽  
Giuseppe Crosa ◽  
Paolo Espa ◽  
Silvia Quadroni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Benthic Macroinvertebrates ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Benthic Assemblages ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
Water Exploitation ◽  
Water Withdrawals

Climate change can affect freshwater communities superimposing on other major stressors, such as water exploitation, with effects still poorly understood. The exacerbation of naturally-occurring periods of low flows has been reported as a major hydrological effect of water diversions, with severe impacts on river benthic macroinvertebrate communities. This study aimed at assessing long-term modifications of low-flow events in a large lowland Italian river possibly associated to climate change and the effects of these events, intensified by water withdrawals, on benthic macroinvertebrates. A 77-year dataset on daily discharge was thus analyzed through Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s method to investigate modifications of the main hydrological parameters. Moreover, macroinvertebrates were collected during the low-flow periods that occurred from 2010 to 2015 at three sites downstream of water withdrawals, representing three different conditions of hydrological impairment. After assessing possible differences in taxonomical and functional composition between sites and impairment conditions, redundancy analysis and ordinary least squares regression were performed to link benthos metrics to environmental (hydrological and physico-chemical) characteristics. An increase in the duration of the low-flow periods and reduced summer flows were detected on the long term, and the magnitude of low flows was significantly altered by water withdrawals. These hydrological features shaped both structural and functional characteristics of benthic assemblages, highlighting the need for a more environmentally-sustainable water resource management in the current context of climate change.

Assessment of climate change impact on flow regimes over the Gomti River basin under IPCC AR5 climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 303-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Abeysingha ◽  
Adlul Islam ◽  
Man Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gomti River ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract Climate change impact on flow regimes in the Gomti River basin, India was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) driven by climate change scenarios generated from multiple general circulation model (GCM) projections. The SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site data. Climate change scenarios were generated from multiple GCM projections using the hybrid-delta ensemble method. Calibration of SWAT using the nine most sensitive parameters showed that the model performed reasonably well with P-factor >0.7 and R-factor <1.0. The annual rainfall is projected to increase by 3.4–4.5, 4.7–10.0, and 5.0–18.0% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). There is a decrease in rainfall during the winter season. The annual streamflow is projected to increase by 1–9, 1–22, and 2–38% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. However, winter and summer streamflow is projected to decrease. Magnitude and frequency of high flows is also projected to increase in the range of 3.6–27.3 and 12–87%, respectively under different RCPs. The results of this study will be helpful in developing suitable water management adaptation plans for the study basin.

scholarly journals Climate change impact on water resources in Klong Yai River Basin, Thailand

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 355-365
Author(s):  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Weerayuth Pratoomchai ◽  
Chatchapol Khemngoen ◽  
Patchanok Srivihok
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. There is a 95 % scientific consensus that human activities contributed to climate change and altered hydrological processes. This study focused on a regional scale climate change impact assessment on water resources in the Klong Yai River basin in Thailand using multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs) under 3 scenarios of greenhouse gas emission called the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs), i.e., low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP4.5), and high (RCP8.5) scenarios. According to the projections, surface air temperature will increase relative to the reference period (1991–2000). Maximum surface air temperature is projected to increase around 0.3–1.35 ∘C. Precipitation in the near future (2017–2026 and 2027–2036) shows an increasing trend. The projected precipitation and temperature were used in the SWAT model for the Klong Yai River basin in order to assess the amount of inflow into reservoirs under the climate change conditions. Despite the future projections still have an uncertainty, but it is useful as a guideline for managing of our water resources and planning.

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