Assessment of climate change impact on flow regimes over the Gomti River basin under IPCC AR5 climate change scenarios

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 303-326 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. S. Abeysingha ◽  
Adlul Islam ◽  
Man Singh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Flow Regimes ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Gomti River ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract Climate change impact on flow regimes in the Gomti River basin, India was studied using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) driven by climate change scenarios generated from multiple general circulation model (GCM) projections. The SWAT-CUP (SWAT-Calibration and Uncertainty Programs) was used for calibration and validation of SWAT using multi-site data. Climate change scenarios were generated from multiple GCM projections using the hybrid-delta ensemble method. Calibration of SWAT using the nine most sensitive parameters showed that the model performed reasonably well with P-factor >0.7 and R-factor <1.0. The annual rainfall is projected to increase by 3.4–4.5, 4.7–10.0, and 5.0–18.0% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s respectively under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). There is a decrease in rainfall during the winter season. The annual streamflow is projected to increase by 1–9, 1–22, and 2–38% during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively. However, winter and summer streamflow is projected to decrease. Magnitude and frequency of high flows is also projected to increase in the range of 3.6–27.3 and 12–87%, respectively under different RCPs. The results of this study will be helpful in developing suitable water management adaptation plans for the study basin.

scholarly journals Optimal water allocation of the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran based on inflow projection under climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fatemeh Saedi ◽  
Azadeh Ahmadi ◽  
Karim C. Abbaspour
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The climate change impact on water availability has become a significant cause for concern in the Zayandeh-Roud Reservoir in Iran and similar reservoirs in arid regions. This study investigates the climate change impact on supplying water and water availability in the Zayandeh-Roud River Basin. For better management, the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to develop a hydrologic model of the Basin. The model then was calibrated and validated for two upstream stations using the SUFI-2 algorithm in the SWAT-CUP software. The impact of climate change was modeled by using data derived from five Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project general circulation models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For calibration (1991–2008), the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.75 and 0.61 at the Ghaleshahrokh and Eskandari stations were obtained, respectively. For validation (2009–2015), the NSE values were 0.80 and 0.82, respectively. The reservoir inflow would probably reduce by 40–50% during the period of 2020–2045 relative to the base period of 1981–2006. To evaluate the reservoir's future performance, a nonlinear optimization model was used to minimize water deficits. The highest annual water deficit would likely be around 847 MCM. The lowest reservoir reliability and the highest vulnerability occurred under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway.

scholarly journals Climate Change Impact on Surface Water and Groundwater Recharge in Northern Thailand

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1029 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chanchai Petpongpan ◽  
Chaiwat Ekkawatpanit ◽  
Duangrudee Kositgittiwong
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Groundwater Recharge ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
Surface Water And Groundwater ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Change Impact

Climate change is progressing and is now one of the most important global challenges for humanities. Water resources management is one of the key challenges to reduce disaster risk. In Northern Thailand, flood and drought have always occurred because of the climate change impact and non-systematic management in the conjunctive use of both sources of water. Therefore, this study aims to assess the climate change impact on surface water and groundwater of the Yom and Nan river basins, located in the upper part of Thailand. The surface water and groundwater regimes are generated by a fully coupled SWAT-MODFLOW model. The future climate scenarios are considered from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5, presented by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), in order to mainly focus on the minimum and maximum Green House Gas (GHG) emissions scenarios during the near future (2021–2045) periods. The results show that the average annual air temperature rises by approximately 0.5–0.6 °C and 0.9–1.0 °C under the minimum (RCP 2.6) and maximum (RCP 8.5) GHG emission scenarios, respectively. The annual rainfall, obtained from both scenarios, increased by the same range of 20–200 mm/year, on average. The summation of surface water (water yield) and groundwater recharge (water percolation) in the Yom river basin decreased by 443.98 and 316.77 million m3/year under the RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, respectively. While, in the Nan river basin, it is projected to increase by 355 million m3/year under RCP 2.6 but decrease by 20.79 million m3/year under RCP 8.5. These quantitative changes can directly impact water availability when evaluating the water demand for consumption, industry, and agriculture.

scholarly journals A high-resolution assessment of climate change impact on water footprints of cereal production in India

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Santosh S. Mali ◽  
Paresh B. Shirsath ◽  
Adlul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Water Footprint ◽  
National Level ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Change Impact

AbstractWater footprint (WF), a comprehensive indicator of water resources appropriation, has evolved as an efficient tool to improve the management and sustainability of water resources. This study quantifies the blue and green WF of major cereals crops in India using high resolution soil and climatic datasets. A comprehensive modelling framework, consisting of Evapotranspiration based Irrigation Requirement (ETIR) tool, was developed for WF assessment. For assessing climate change impact on WF, multi-model ensemble climate change scenarios were generated using the hybrid-delta ensemble method for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 and future period of 2030s and 2050s. The total WF of the cereal crops are projected to change in the range of − 3.2 to 6.3% under different RCPs in future periods. Although, the national level green and blue WF is projected to change marginally, distinct trends were observed for Kharif (rainy season—June to September) and rabi (winter season—October to February) crops. The blue WF of paddy is likely to decrease by 9.6%, while for wheat it may increase by 4.4% under RCP4.5 during 2050s. The green WF of rabi crops viz. wheat and maize is likely to increase in the range of 20.0 to 24.1% and 9.9 to 16.2%, respectively. This study provides insights into the influences of climate change on future water footprints of crop production and puts forth regional strategies for future water resource management. In view of future variability in the WFs, a water footprint-based optimization for relocation of crop cultivation areas with the aim of minimising the blue water use would be possible management alternative.

scholarly journals Statistical downscaling using principal component regression for climate change impact assessment at the Cauvery river basin

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Parthiban Loganathan ◽  
Amit Baburao Mahindrakar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Principal Component Regression ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract Climate change impact studies are generally carried out with higher resolution general circulation model (GCM) outputs, which are usually for a global scale, and it is difficult to use the same for a regional scale. GCM simulations require downscaling to get a coarser scale output for local climate impact studies. In this study, an improvised principal component regression (PCR) downscaling technique is adapted to downscale 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM historical outputs. A massive river basin named Cauvery with 35 observation stations is categorized into three subbasins to study the regional climate impacts. In this case, the PCR model performed remarkably well compared to other conventional machine learning models with half the computational time than usual. The test statistics state that the validation of the proposed model illustrates a variance in calibration results of the PCR model, which ranges between 2 and 5%, and a variance in validation, which is less than 7% throughout the study area. Since it is desired to prioritize GCMs to choose the merely suitable models for a strategic climate study, the models were selected based on the PCR model performance. Furthermore, CCSM4, inmcm4, and EC-EARTH model's performance in recreating precipitation statistics over the study area are exceptional.

scholarly journals Water resources change in response to climate change in Changjiang River basin

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 3159-3188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Huang ◽  
W. F. Yang ◽  
L. Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Yangtze River Basin ◽  
Changjiang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Doubtlessly, global climate change and its impacts have caught increasing attention from all sectors of the society world-widely. Among all those affected aspects, hydrological circle has been found rather sensitive to climate change. Climate change, either as the result or as the driving-force, has intensified the uneven distribution of water resources in the Changjiang (Yangtze) River basin, China. In turn, drought and flooding problems have been aggravated which has brought new challenges to current hydraulic works such as dike or reservoirs which were designed and constructed based on the historical hydrological characteristics, yet has been significantly changed due to climate change impact. Thus, it is necessary to consider the climate change impacts in basin planning and water resources management, currently and in the future. To serve such purpose, research has been carried out on climate change impact on water resources (and hydrological circle) in Changjiang River. The paper presents the main findings of the research, including main findings from analysis of historical hydro-meteorological data in Changjiang River, and runoff change trends in the future using temperature and precipitation predictions calculated based on different emission scenarios of the 24 Global Climate Modes (GCMs) which has been used in the 4th IPCC assessment report. In this research, two types of macro-scope statistical and hydrological models were developed to simulate runoff prediction. Concerning the change trends obtained from the historical data and the projection from GCMs results, the trend of changes in water resources impacted by climate change was analyzed for Changjiang River. Uncertainty of using the models and data were as well analyzed.

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