Quantifying the contribution of climate- and human-induced runoff decrease in the Luanhe river basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 430-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhu Li ◽  
Shuhan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Geometric Approach ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Runoff Decrease

Climate variability and human activities are two main factors influencing hydrological processes. For more reasonable water management, understanding and quantifying the contributions of the two factors to runoff change is a prerequisite. In this paper, the Budyko decomposition hypothesis and the geometric approach were employed to quantify climate change and human activities on mean annual runoff (MAR) in six sub-basins of Luanhe river basin. We split a long-term period (1956–2011) into two sub-periods (pre-change and post-change periods) to quantify the change over time. Observations show that annual runoff has had a decreasing trend during the past 56 years in the Luanhe river basin. Based on a geometric approach, the climate impacts in these six sub-basins were 7–49%, and the contributions of human activities were 51–93%, approximately. According to the Budyko decomposition method, impacts of climate variation accounted for 15–40% of the runoff decrease, and the contribution of human activities was 60–85%. Both methods were simple to understand, and it is feasible to separate the climatic- and human-induced impacts on MAR. This study could provide significant information for water resources managers.

scholarly journals Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2659
Author(s):  
Bao Shanshan ◽  
Yang Wei ◽  
Wang Xiaojun ◽  
Li Hongyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Songhua River ◽  
Songhua River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
The Second Songhua River

In the past several decades, climate change and human activities have influenced hydrological processes, and potentially caused more frequent and extensive flood and drought risks. Therefore, identification and quantification of the driving factors of runoff variation have become a hot research area. This paper used the trend analysis method to show that runoff had a significant downward trend during the past 60 years in the Second Songhua River Basin (SSRB) of Northeast China. The upper, middle, and lower streams of five hydrological stations were selected to analyze the breakpoint of the annual runoff in the past 60 years, and the breakpoints were used to divide the entire study period into two sub-periods (1956–1974 and 1975–2015). Using the water–energy coupling balance method based on Choudhury–Yang equation, the climatic and catchment landscape elasticity coefficient of the annual runoff change was estimated, and attribution analysis of the runoff change was carried out for the Fengman Reservoir and Fuyu stations in SSRB. The change in potential evapotranspiration has a weak effect on the runoff, and change in precipitation and catchment landscape were the leading factors affecting runoff. Impacts of climate change and land cover change were accountable for the runoff decrease by 80% and 11% (Fengman), 17% and 206% (Fuyu) on average, respectively; runoff was more sensitive to climate change in Fengman, and was more sensitive to catchment landscape change in Fuyu. In Fengman, the population was small, owing to the comparatively inhospitable natural conditions, and so human activities were low. However, in Fuyu, human activities were more intensive, and so had more impact on runoff for the Lower Second Songhua River compared to the Upper Second Songhua River.

scholarly journals Understanding the Main Causes of Runoff Change by Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Luanhe River Basin, North China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Yixuan Wang ◽  
Bing Wang ◽  
Ping Feng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rainfall Series ◽  
Surface Change ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Runoff Decrease

In the traditional point of view, if there is a significant decreasing trend for a runoff time series, while no significant trend for a precipitation series is present, then an unreliable conclusion will be made that the land surface change is the main contributor to the runoff change. To test it, we selected four sub-watersheds in the Luanhe river basin as the study areas where land use has changed severely. We first detected the long-term rainfall and runoff trend by the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope, and the moving average method, and found that the runoff had a decreasing trend at the 0.05 significance level, while the rainfall had no significant trend in all sub-watersheds. Then an orderly cluster analysis and moving T test method were used to detect the change point of the runoff series. We quantified the contributions of the land surface change and climate variability based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the contribution of climate variability accounted for more than 50%, which implies that climate change is the main factor of runoff decrease in the study areas. To further test this, a trend analysis of a reconstructed annual runoff time series under undisturbed conditions has been done. The results showed that in some sub-watersheds, although rainfall series had no significant decreasing trend, the runoff series had significant downward trend. This can be explained by the nonlinear relationship between rainfall and runoff. This study came to a different conclusion from the common view, which observes that runoff decrease is mainly caused by land surface change if rainfall series lacks a significantly decreasing trend.

scholarly journals Scale effects on runoff generation in meso-scale and large-scale sub-basins in the Luanhe River Basin

2008 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1511-1531 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Feng ◽  
J. Z. Li
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Scale Effects ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Northeast Of China ◽  
Basin Area ◽  
Meso Scale

Abstract. The scale effects on runoff coefficients have been observed by several researchers on plots or small watersheds, however, little research has been done on meso-scale and large-scale catchments. So six meso-scale and large-scale sub-basins of the Luanhe river basin, in northeast of China, were selected for calculating the runoff coefficients of single event during 1956–2002. An obvious reduction in average runoff coefficients from 0.43 (Liuhe basin) to 0.10 (Luanhe basin) was found with increasing basin area. And for the annual runoff coefficients from 1956 to 2002, the same trend was also observed. In addition, runoff coefficients varied wildly from one rainstorm to the other. One of the reasons is that at the beginning of the storm, the rainfall is absorbed in the soil and fills in the macropores of the soil, and after runoff generation rainfall infiltrates during the routing process. And the spatial variability of rainfall, the groundwater discharge ability can also lead to runoff coefficients reduction with the increasing basin area. The study on the scale effects on runoff coefficient is very important to develop a physically-based hydrological model and parameter estimation on different scales.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Analysis on the Hydrologic Alteration and Causes of River Runoff in Min River of the Yangtze River, China

2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxian Guo ◽  
Haotong Zhou ◽  
Xuyang Jiao ◽  
Yongwei Zhu ◽  
Hongxiang Wang
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Hydrologic Alteration ◽  
Ecological Benefits ◽  
Min River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Development And Utilization ◽  
Water Conservancy

Abstract The construction of water conservancy projects has changed the hydrological situation of rivers and has an essential impact on the river ecosystem. The influence modes of different factors on runoff alteration are discussed to improve the development and utilization of water resources and promote ecological benefits. The ecological, hydrological index change range method (IHA-RVA) and hydrological alteration degree method were comprehensively used to evaluate Min River's hydrological situation. Based on six budyko hypothesis formulas, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff change are quantitatively analyzed. The study showed that the runoff of Min River basin showed a significant decreasing trend from 1960 to 2019 and a sudden alteration around 1993; The overall alteration in runoff conditions was 45% moderate, and the overall alteration in precipitation was 37% moderate; Precipitation and potential evapotranspiration also showed a decreasing trend within the same period, but the overall trend was not significant; The contribution of climate alteration to runoff alteration is 30.2%, and the contribution of human activities to runoff alteration is 69.8%, human activities are the dominant factor affecting the alteration of runoff situation in Min River basin.

scholarly journals Assessment of Hydrological Changes and Their Influence on the Aquatic Ecology over the last 58 Years in Ganjiang Basin, China

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4882 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinghou Huang ◽  
Binbin Huang ◽  
Tianling Qin ◽  
Hanjiang Nie ◽  
Jianwei Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Aquatic Organisms ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Habitat Model ◽  
Fall Rate ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Ganjiang River Basin

Runoff is the key driving factor of the Ganjiang River ecosystem. Human activities such as reservoir construction have greatly changed the state of runoff. In order to analyze the influence of Ganjiang Reservoir on the hydrological regime, the following paper is based on the daily precipitation data of 53 rainfall stations in Ganjiang River Basin from 1959 to 2016, and the daily runoff data of three stations in Dongbei, Ji’an, and Waizhou from 1959 to 2016. The Mann–Kendall test (MK) was used to analyze the trend of precipitation and runoff in Ganjiang River Basin. The Sliding t-Test (ST) was used to determine the abrupt change time of runoff in flood season within typical cross-sections of upper, middle, and lower reaches of Ganjiang River Basin, Ji’an, and Waizhou. Indicators of hydrological change (IHA), range of variability approach (RVA), and other methods were used to analyze the changes of 32 hydrological indicators in Ganjiang River Basin. The results showed that (1) The annual and flood season precipitation in Ganjiang River Basin increased from 1992 to 2016, but it did not reach a significant level. The change of annual runoff at Dongbei and Waizhou Stations was the same as that of the annual precipitation in Ganjiang River Basin. The runoff of Dongbei Station in flood season decreased from 1986 to 2016, and the runoff of Waizhou Railway Station in flood season decreased from 2008 to 2016. It showed that precipitation had a great influence on annual runoff, and human activities made the annual runoff distribution process more uniform; (2) The abrupt changes of runoff in flood season at three hydrological stations in Ganjiang River Basin occurred in 1991, and reached a significant level of 0.01; (3) There were five hydrological indicators of Dongbei Station which had reached height change. The change degree of low (l) pulse duration was −92.24%, the change degree of high (h) pulse count was −86.8%, the change degree of flow rise rate was 87.06%, the change degree of fall rate was −92.24%, and the change degree of number of reversals was −100%. Four hydrological indicators of Ji’an Station had reached high change degree, the count and duration of high pulse changes were −73.33% and −73.65%, the change degree of fall rate was −79%, and the change degree of number of reversals was −100%. Waizhou Station did not reach the high change indicator. The hydrological regime of the upper and middle reaches of Ganjiang River has changed greatly, while the hydrological regime of the lower reaches has changed little. The hydrological regime in the upper and middle reaches of Ganjiang River Basin has been highly changed by human activities such as dam construction. The change of hydrological conditions in the upper and middle reaches of Ganjiang River Basin may reduce the area of aquatic organisms’ habitat, be harmful to the spawning, migration, and survival of aquatic organisms, reduce the interception of organic matter in floodplains, and increase the drought pressure of plants. The reservoir ecological operation of rivers with numerous reservoirs should be considered, joint reservoir dispatching schemes should be formulated for the study area so as to maximize the comprehensive benefits. This study provides a reference for water resources management and reservoir operation in Ganjiang River Basin. The next step is to use a habitat model to simulate the habitat of Ganjiang River Basin.

scholarly journals Variations in the precipitation–runoff relationship of the Weihe River Basin

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 295-310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aijun Guo ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Dengfeng Liu ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Qiang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Archimedean Copulas ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Weihe River ◽  
Weihe River Basin

The main goal of this study is to introduce the Archimedean copulas, which overcome the low accuracy and subjective nature of the traditional double mass curve method, to investigate the precipitation–runoff relationship (PRR) and detect change points in the Weihe River Basin (WRB). With the construction of a joint distribution between precipitation and runoff by the Archimedean copulas, a statistical variable considering the distribution parameter was estimated to judge the change point of the PRR. The results show that: (1) annual precipitation and runoff present decreasing trends that are significant and insignificant, respectively, at the 95% significance level, while annual potential evapotranspiration (PET) increases slightly; (2) change points of the PRR occurred in 1971 and 1994; (3) the annual runoff changed more dramatically than precipitation during the periods from 1972 to 1994 and 1995 to 2010 compared with 1960–1971, which indicates that in addition to precipitation, there are some other non-precipitation factors that are responsible for the change in the PRR; and (4) the contributions to runoff from human activities declined from 1972 to 1994 (84.15%) and 1995 to 2010 (57.16%). These results suggest that human activities (e.g., irrigation, reservoirs, water-and-soil conservation) were the primary driving forces leading to changes in the PRR in the WRB.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Variability and Human Activities on the Changes of Runoff and Sediment Load in a Catchment of the Loess Plateau, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Tian ◽  
Xingmin Mu ◽  
Jianli Liu ◽  
Jinfei Hu ◽  
Chaojun Gu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Sediment Concentration ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Abrupt Changes ◽  
Runoff Decrease ◽  
Annual Scale

The objectives of this study are to investigate the changes of runoff and sediment load and their potential influencing factors in the Huangfuchuan catchment. The Mann-Kendall test and accumulative anomaly methods were, respectively, applied to examine the changing trends and abrupt changes. Both annual runoff and sediment load demonstrated significant reduction (p<0.05) with decreasing rates of −3.2 × 106 m3/a and −1.09 Mt/a, respectively. The abrupt changes were detected in 1979 and 1996 for the runoff and sediment load. All the runoff and sediment indices (runoff, sediment load, runoff coefficient, and sediment concentration) exhibited remarkable reduction (p<0.01). The climate variability contributed 24.4% and 25.1% during 1980–1996 and 1997–2010 to annual runoff decrease, respectively, and human activities accounted for the remaining 75.6% and 74.9%. In contrast, changes in precipitation accounted for 43.5% and 20.2% of sediment load reduction during 1980–1996 and 1997–2010, whereas the human activities contributed 56.5% and 79.8%, respectively. The relative contributions from climate variability and human activities to runoff and sediment load changes at annual scale were different from that at flood season scale. Results suggested the dominant role of soil and water conservations in the variation of runoff and sediment load in the catchment.

scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidong Zeng ◽  
Chesheng Zhan ◽  
Fubao Sun ◽  
Hong Du ◽  
Feiyu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Integrated Method ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

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