scholarly journals Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Luan River Basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sidong Zeng ◽  
Chesheng Zhan ◽  
Fubao Sun ◽  
Hong Du ◽  
Feiyu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Hydrological Modeling ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Integrated Method ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes

Quantifying the effects of climate change and human activities on runoff changes is the focus of climate change and hydrological research. This paper presents an integrated method employing the Budyko-based Fu model, hydrological modeling, and climate elasticity approaches to separate the effects of the two driving factors on surface runoff in the Luan River basin, China. The Budyko-based Fu model and the double mass curve method are used to analyze runoff changes during the period 1958~2009. Then two types of hydrological models (the distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool model and the lumped SIMHYD model) and seven climate elasticity methods (including a nonparametric method and six Budyko-based methods) are applied to estimate the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff change. The results show that all quantification methods are effective, and the results obtained by the nine methods are generally consistent. During the study period, the effects of climate change on runoff change accounted for 28.3~46.8% while those of human activities contributed with 53.2~71.7%, indicating that both factors have significant effects on the runoff decline in the basin, and that the effects of human activities are relatively stronger than those of climate change.

scholarly journals Analyzing the Impact of Climate Change and Human Activities on Surface Runoff in the Changbai Mountain Area, Northeast China

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3473
Author(s):  
Shanjun Zhang ◽  
Jia Liu ◽  
Chuanzhe Li ◽  
Fuliang Yu ◽  
Lanshu Jing ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Changbai Mountain ◽  
Mountain Area ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Runoff Changes

Climate change and human activities are two important factors affecting surface runoff. In water resource management and planning, it is generally important to separate the contribution of these factors when assessing runoff changes. The Changbai Mountain area is rich in water resources and is an important hydropower energy base for Northeast China. This study used Sen’s slope estimator to explore trends in runoff precipitation and evapotranspiration from 1960 to 2016, and the results showed a downward trend in runoff and an upward trend in precipitation and evaporation in most areas. The mutation point of the annual time series for the observed runoff was estimated, and the time series was divided into the base period (1960–1975) and impact period (1976–2016). Based on the Budyko framework, we performed attribution analysis of the runoff changes, and analyzed the difference between the mountainous region and the whole basin. We determined that the impacts of climate change and human activities, on average, accounted for decreases in the runoff by 60.15% and 39.85%, respectively, for the Second Songhua River Basin; 73.74% and 26.26%, respectively, for the Tumen River Basin; 84.76% and 15.24%, respectively, for the Yalu River Basin; human activities were the main causes of runoff changes in the Changbai Mountain area; climate change was the main cause of runoff changes in mountainous regions. The results of this study show that the reasons for the change in runoff in mountainous regions and the whole basin in the same area are different, which has some illuminating significance for water resources management of different elevation areas.

scholarly journals Quantitative study of impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Beiluohe River basin

2015 ◽  
Vol 368 ◽  
pp. 263-268 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Guo ◽  
Q. Huang ◽  
Y. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Empirical Method ◽  
Natural Period ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
Runoff Reduction ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. In the Beiluohe River basin (BRB) runoff has been experiencing a significant reduction induced by climate change and human activities. This paper considers the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff reduction. An improved empirical method for climate factors and runoff was developed to study the impacts quantitatively. Meanwhile climate elasticity of runoff, based on the Budyko hypothesis, was also adopted to study the impacts. Using runoff change points, series were divided into natural period (1960–1969) and impacted periods (1970–1994, 1995–2010). Results show that the methods used to quantify the contributions obtained different but close conclusions to one another. For 1970–1994, climate was the primary factor impacting runoff, compared with that for 1960–1969, with the contribution reaching around 70.84–83.42%, which was greater than human activities (16.58–29.16%). For 1995–2010, the role of human activities strengthened with the contribution around 62.58–65.07%, greater than climate changes, around 34.93–37.42%.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Runoff Changes in the Guishui River Basin

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meilin Wang ◽  
Yaqi Shao ◽  
Qun’ou Jiang ◽  
Ling Xiao ◽  
Haiming Yan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Average Annual Runoff ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Guishui River Basin in northwestern Beijing has ecological significance and will be one of the venues of the upcoming Beijing Winter Olympic Games in 2022. However, accelerating climate change and human disturbance in recent decades has posed an increasing challenge to the sustainable use of water in the basin. This study simulated the runoff of the Guishui River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to reveal the spatio-temporal variations of runoff in the basin and the impacts of climate change and human activities on the runoff changes. The results showed that annual runoff from 2004 to 2018 was relatively small, with an uneven intra-annual runoff distribution. The seasonal trends in runoff showed a decreasing trend in spring and winter while an increasing trend in summer and autumn. There was a first increasing and then decreasing trend of average annual runoff depth from northwest to southeast in the study area. In addition, the contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in runoff of the Guishui River Basin were 60% and 40%, respectively, but with opposite effects. The results can contribute to the rational utilization of water resources in the Guishui River Basin.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3501
Author(s):  
Hao Liu ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
Guangxing Ji ◽  
Yanlin Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Lancang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
The Lancang River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Based on the Lancang River Basin (LRB) hydro–meteorological data from 1961 to 2015, this study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test and mutation test to analyze the trend of hydro–meteorological variables, as well as which year the runoff series changes, respectively. We applied the Choudhury–Yang equation to calculate the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff. Then we quantified the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The results show that: (1) the mean annual precipitation (P) in LRB showed an insignificant decline, the annual potential evapotranspiration (E0) showed a significant increase, and the runoff depth (R) showed a significant decrease; (2) the abrupt change of the R occurred in 2005. Both the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff increased, which means that the hydrological process of LRB became more sensitive to climate changes and human activities; (3) compared with the base period (1961–2004), the reduction of P was the leading cause of runoff reduction, with a contribution of 45.64%. The contribution of E0 and human activities to runoff changes are 13.91% and 40.45%, respectively.

scholarly journals Quantifying Contributions of Climate Change and Local Human Activities to Runoff Decline in the Second Songhua River Basin

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 2659
Author(s):  
Bao Shanshan ◽  
Yang Wei ◽  
Wang Xiaojun ◽  
Li Hongyan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Songhua River ◽  
Songhua River Basin ◽  
The Past ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Significant Downward Trend ◽  
The Second Songhua River

In the past several decades, climate change and human activities have influenced hydrological processes, and potentially caused more frequent and extensive flood and drought risks. Therefore, identification and quantification of the driving factors of runoff variation have become a hot research area. This paper used the trend analysis method to show that runoff had a significant downward trend during the past 60 years in the Second Songhua River Basin (SSRB) of Northeast China. The upper, middle, and lower streams of five hydrological stations were selected to analyze the breakpoint of the annual runoff in the past 60 years, and the breakpoints were used to divide the entire study period into two sub-periods (1956–1974 and 1975–2015). Using the water–energy coupling balance method based on Choudhury–Yang equation, the climatic and catchment landscape elasticity coefficient of the annual runoff change was estimated, and attribution analysis of the runoff change was carried out for the Fengman Reservoir and Fuyu stations in SSRB. The change in potential evapotranspiration has a weak effect on the runoff, and change in precipitation and catchment landscape were the leading factors affecting runoff. Impacts of climate change and land cover change were accountable for the runoff decrease by 80% and 11% (Fengman), 17% and 206% (Fuyu) on average, respectively; runoff was more sensitive to climate change in Fengman, and was more sensitive to catchment landscape change in Fuyu. In Fengman, the population was small, owing to the comparatively inhospitable natural conditions, and so human activities were low. However, in Fuyu, human activities were more intensive, and so had more impact on runoff for the Lower Second Songhua River compared to the Upper Second Songhua River.

scholarly journals Temporal and Spatial Changes of Runoff Regime in the Yellow River Basin from 1956 to 2017

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 3298
Author(s):  
Mingda Yang ◽  
Huan Liu ◽  
Yuping Han ◽  
Qinghui Zeng ◽  
Jianhua Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Human Activity ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Yellow River Basin ◽  
The Yellow River ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Changes ◽  
Runoff Regime ◽  
The Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River is one of the major rivers with severe runoff declines in China, but there are significant differences in runoff changes in the upper and lower reaches of the basin and among different tributaries. However, the characteristic of runoff change and its spatial heterogeneity are not well understood in the whole basin. In this paper, 48 hydrological stations located in the mainstream and major tributaries were selected, and the meteorological and runoff data from 1956 to 2017 were collected. The multi-year and intra-year changes in runoff were analyzed, and then the attribution of climate change and human activity to runoff change was quantified by the climate elasticity coefficients. The results showed that: (1) in the past 60 years, the runoff of the Yellow River showed a serious decrease trend of −8.25 mm/10a. Moreover, most tributaries decreased significantly in runoff with a rate of −1.42 mm/10a to −28.99 mm/10a; (2) for the whole basin, the contribution of climate change and human activity to runoff changes was 13% and 87%, respectively. Moreover, the contribution of the two factors varied considerably in different tributaries. Finally, focusing on different runoff regime and socioeconomic characteristics, this study provided corresponding water resources adaptive management suggestions.

scholarly journals Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 3069-3077 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Zhan ◽  
S. S. Jiang ◽  
F. B. Sun ◽  
Y. W. Jia ◽  
C. W. Niu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Yellow River ◽  
Climate Elasticity ◽  
The Wei River Basin ◽  
Runoff Decrease ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Wei River Basin ◽  
Wei River

Abstract. Surface runoff from the Wei River basin, the largest tributary of the Yellow River in China, has dramatically decreased over last 51 years from 1958 to 2008. Climate change and human activities have been identified as the two main reasons for the decrease in runoff. The study period is split into two sub-periods (1958–1989 and 1990–2008) using the Mann–Kendall jump test. This study develops an improved climate elasticity method based on the original climate elasticity method, and conducts a quantitative assessment of the impact of climate change and human activities on the runoff decrease in the Wei River basin. The results from the original climate elasticity method show that climatic impacts contribute 37–40% to the decrease in runoff, while human impacts contribute 60–63%. In contrast, the results from the improved climate elasticity method yield a climatic contribution to runoff decrease of 22–29% and a human contribution of 71–78%. A discussion of the simulation reliability and uncertainty concludes that the improved climate elasticity method has a better mechanism and can provide more reasonable results.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on the Surface Runoff in the Wuhua River Basin

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 3405 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengdong Zhang ◽  
Luwen Wan ◽  
Caiwen Dong ◽  
Yichun Xie ◽  
Chuanxun Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Surface Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Land Use Type ◽  
Cultivated Land ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The impacts of climate change and human activities on the surface runoff in the Wuhua River Basin (hereinafter referred to as the river basin) are explored using the Mann–Kendall trend test, wavelet analysis, and double-mass curve. In this study, all the temperature and precipitation data from two meteorological stations, namely, Wuhua and Longchuan, the measured monthly runoff data in Hezikou Hydrological Station from 1961 to 2013, and the land-cover type data in 1990 and 2013 are used. This study yields valuable results. First, over the past 53 years, the temperature in the river basin rose substantially, without obvious changes in the average annual precipitation. From 1981 to 2013, the annual runoff fluctuated and declined, and this result is essentially in agreement with the time-series characteristics of precipitation. Second, both temperature and precipitation had evidently regular changes on the 28a scale, and the annual runoff changed on the 19a scale. Third, forestland was the predominant land use type in the Wuhua river basin, followed by cultivated land. Major transitions mainly occurred in both land-use types, which were partially transformed into grassland and construction land. From 1990 to 2013, cultivated land was the most active land-use type in the transitions, and construction land was the most stable type. Finally, human activities had always been a decisive factor on the runoff reduction in the river basin, accounting for 85.8%. The runoff in the river basin suffered most heavily from human activities in the 1980s and 1990s, but thereafter, the impact of these activities diminished to a certain extent. This may be because of the implementation of water loss and soil erosion control policies.

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