scholarly journals Understanding the Main Causes of Runoff Change by Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study in Luanhe River Basin, North China

Water ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 1028 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ting Zhang ◽  
Yixuan Wang ◽  
Bing Wang ◽  
Ping Feng
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Rainfall Series ◽  
Surface Change ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
Runoff Decrease

In the traditional point of view, if there is a significant decreasing trend for a runoff time series, while no significant trend for a precipitation series is present, then an unreliable conclusion will be made that the land surface change is the main contributor to the runoff change. To test it, we selected four sub-watersheds in the Luanhe river basin as the study areas where land use has changed severely. We first detected the long-term rainfall and runoff trend by the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope, and the moving average method, and found that the runoff had a decreasing trend at the 0.05 significance level, while the rainfall had no significant trend in all sub-watersheds. Then an orderly cluster analysis and moving T test method were used to detect the change point of the runoff series. We quantified the contributions of the land surface change and climate variability based on Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), and the contribution of climate variability accounted for more than 50%, which implies that climate change is the main factor of runoff decrease in the study areas. To further test this, a trend analysis of a reconstructed annual runoff time series under undisturbed conditions has been done. The results showed that in some sub-watersheds, although rainfall series had no significant decreasing trend, the runoff series had significant downward trend. This can be explained by the nonlinear relationship between rainfall and runoff. This study came to a different conclusion from the common view, which observes that runoff decrease is mainly caused by land surface change if rainfall series lacks a significantly decreasing trend.

Quantifying the contribution of climate- and human-induced runoff decrease in the Luanhe river basin, China

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 430-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianzhu Li ◽  
Shuhan Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Geometric Approach ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Significant Information ◽  
Luanhe River Basin ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Two Factors ◽  
Runoff Decrease

Climate variability and human activities are two main factors influencing hydrological processes. For more reasonable water management, understanding and quantifying the contributions of the two factors to runoff change is a prerequisite. In this paper, the Budyko decomposition hypothesis and the geometric approach were employed to quantify climate change and human activities on mean annual runoff (MAR) in six sub-basins of Luanhe river basin. We split a long-term period (1956–2011) into two sub-periods (pre-change and post-change periods) to quantify the change over time. Observations show that annual runoff has had a decreasing trend during the past 56 years in the Luanhe river basin. Based on a geometric approach, the climate impacts in these six sub-basins were 7–49%, and the contributions of human activities were 51–93%, approximately. According to the Budyko decomposition method, impacts of climate variation accounted for 15–40% of the runoff decrease, and the contribution of human activities was 60–85%. Both methods were simple to understand, and it is feasible to separate the climatic- and human-induced impacts on MAR. This study could provide significant information for water resources managers.

Monitoring and modelling land surface dynamics in Bermejo River Basin, Argentina: time series analysis of MODIS NDVI data

2013 ◽  
Vol 34 (15) ◽  
pp. 5429-5451 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Barraza ◽  
F. Grings ◽  
M. Salvia ◽  
P. Perna ◽  
A.E. Carbajo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Analysis ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Surface Dynamics ◽  
Modis Ndvi ◽  
Series Analysis

scholarly journals Qualitative Approach for Assessing Runoff Temporal Dependence Through Geometrical Symmetry

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Santiago Zazo Del dedo ◽  
Hector Macian-Sorribes ◽  
Cristina Maria Sena Fael ◽  
Ana-María Garía-Martín ◽  
Jose-Luis Molina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Causal Reasoning ◽  
Qualitative Approach ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Temporal Dependence ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Runoff Change

Currently, noticeable changes in traditional hydrological patterns are being observed on the short and medium-term. These modifications are adding a growing variability on water resources behaviour, especially evident in its availability. Consequently, for a better understanding/knowledge of temporal alterations, it is crucial to develop  new analytical strategies which are capable of capturing these modifications on its temporal behaviour. This challenge is here addressed via a purely stochastic methodology on annual runoff time series. This is performed through the propagation of temporal dependence strength over the time, by means of Causality, supported by Causal Reasoning (Bayes’ theorem), via the relative percentage of runoff change that a time-step produces on the following ones. The result is a dependence mitigation graph, whose analysis of its symmetry provides an innovative qualitative approach to assess time-dependency from a dynamic and continuous perspective against the classical, static and punctual result that a correlogram offers. This was evaluated/applied to four Spanish unregulated river sub-basins; firstly on two Douro/Duero River Basin exemplary case studies (the largest river basin at Iberian Peninsula) with a clearly opposite temporal behaviour, and subsequently applied to two watersheds belonging to Jucar River Basin (Iberian Peninsula Mediterranean side), characterised by suffering regular drought conditions. Keywords: Causal reasoning, Theorem of Bayes, Temporal dependence propagation, Runoff time series, Water resources management

scholarly journals Parameter Selection for Phase Space Reconstruction in Hydrological Series and Rationality Analysis of its Chaotic Characteristics

10.29007/2fb8 ◽  
2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hongyan Li ◽  
Shanshan Bao ◽  
Yunqing Xuan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Phase Space ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Delay Time ◽  
Phase Space Reconstruction ◽  
Sequence Length ◽  
Rainfall Time Series ◽  
Embedding Dimension ◽  
Characteristic Index ◽  
Runoff Series

This study performed a rationality analysis of the delay time and embedding dimension value during phase space reconstruction in hydrological series and the effect on their chaotic characteristics. Using a monthly average runoff time series from the Ayanqian station (upstream) and the Jiangqiao station (midstream) in the Nen River Basin, we reached the following regularity conclusions. 1 Based on the flood season (4 months) in the Nen River Basin, we can deduce that the correlation sequence length for the runoff is 4~5 months, i.e., the delay time =3 or 4 is a reasonable choice. 2 Learn from the predictability experiment results for the monthly rainfall time series, we know that the calculation results of the G-P algorithm for the dimension of runoff series for the Nen River Basin are reasonable, i.e., the embedding dimension is no more than seven. 3 the most suitable parameters for the phase space reconstruction and its chaotic characteristic index in the Nen River Basin are as follows: delay time = 3~4, embedding dimension = 6~7, correlation dimension = 2.90~3.00, maximum Lyapunov index = 0.24~0.32, and the forecast time is 3~4 months.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Runoff in the Lancang River Basin Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3501
Author(s):  
Hao Liu ◽  
Zheng Wang ◽  
Guangxing Ji ◽  
Yanlin Yue
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Mean Annual Precipitation ◽  
Hydrological Process ◽  
Lancang River ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Series ◽  
The Lancang River Basin ◽  
The Impact

Based on the Lancang River Basin (LRB) hydro–meteorological data from 1961 to 2015, this study uses the Mann–Kendall trend test and mutation test to analyze the trend of hydro–meteorological variables, as well as which year the runoff series changes, respectively. We applied the Choudhury–Yang equation to calculate the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff. Then we quantified the impact of climate change and human activities on runoff change. The results show that: (1) the mean annual precipitation (P) in LRB showed an insignificant decline, the annual potential evapotranspiration (E0) showed a significant increase, and the runoff depth (R) showed a significant decrease; (2) the abrupt change of the R occurred in 2005. Both the climate and catchment landscape elasticity of runoff increased, which means that the hydrological process of LRB became more sensitive to climate changes and human activities; (3) compared with the base period (1961–2004), the reduction of P was the leading cause of runoff reduction, with a contribution of 45.64%. The contribution of E0 and human activities to runoff changes are 13.91% and 40.45%, respectively.

scholarly journals Attribution Analysis of Runoff Variation in the Yue River Watershed of the Qinling Mountains

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Yiyi Hu ◽  
Yi He
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Underlying Surface ◽  
Qinling Mountains ◽  
Elastic Coefficient ◽  
Surface Change ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Runoff Change ◽  
Runoff Decrease

In recent decades, global climate change, especially human activities, has led to profound changes in the hydrological cycle and hydrological processes in watersheds. Taking the Yue River watershed in the Qinling Mountains in China as the study area, the Mann–Kendall test and Pettitt mutation test method were used to analyze the various characteristics of hydrological and climatic elements from 1960 to 2018. Then, the elastic coefficient method based on the Budyko framework was used to estimate the elastic coefficient of runoff change on each influencing factor. The results showed that the annual runoff decreased at a rate of 0.038 × 108 m3/a ( P > 0.05 ), and a significant abrupt change occurred in 1990. The annual precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) increased and decreased, with change rates of 0.614 mm/a and −0.811 mm/a ( P > 0.05 ), respectively. The elasticity coefficients of precipitation, ET0, and the underlying surface were 1.95, −0.95, and −0.85, respectively, indicating that annual runoff was most sensitive to the change in precipitation, followed by the change in ET0, and had the lowest sensitivity to the change in the underlying surface. Underlying surface change is the main factor of runoff decrease; the contribution is 89.07%. The total contribution of climate change to runoff change is 10.93%, in which the contributions of precipitation and ET0 are 17.59% and −6.66%, respectively. The NDVI reflecting underlying surface change has been increasing since 1990, which is an important reason for the runoff decrease.

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