The Micro and Macro of Managerial Beliefs

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Barrero
Keyword(s):  
Managerial Beliefs

The Micro and Macro of Managerial Beliefs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose Maria Barrero
Keyword(s):  
Rational Expectations ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Heterogeneous Firms ◽  
Adjustment Costs ◽  
Consumer Welfare ◽  
Sales Growth ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Managerial Beliefs ◽  
Growth Volatility

This paper studies how biases in managerial beliefs affect managerial decisions, firm performance, and the macroeconomy. Using a new survey of US managers I establish three facts. (1) Managers are not over-optimistic: sales growth forecasts on average do not exceed realizations. (2) Managers are overprecise (overconfident): they underestimate future sales growth volatility. (3) Managers overextrapolate: their forecasts are too optimistic after positive shocks and too pessimistic after negative shocks. To quantify the implications of these facts, I estimate a dynamic general equilibrium model in which managers of heterogeneous firms use a subjective beliefs process to make forward-looking hiring decisions. Overprecision and overextrapolation lead managers to overreact to firm-level shocks and overspend on adjustment costs, destroying 2.1 percent of the typical firm’s value. Pervasive overreaction leads to excess volatility and reallocation, lowering consumer welfare by 0.5 to 2.3 percent relative to the rational expectations equilibrium. These findings suggest overreaction may amplify asset-price and business cycle fluctuations.

Managerial Beliefs Among Asian Managers.

1976 ◽  
Vol 1976 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gordon Redding ◽  
Terry Casey
Keyword(s):  
Managerial Beliefs

scholarly journals E-CRM and Managerial Discretion

2011 ◽  
pp. 3090-3106
Author(s):  
Tim Coltman ◽  
Sara Dolnicar
Keyword(s):  
Managerial Discretion ◽  
Customer Relationship ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Managerial Beliefs ◽  
Managerial Optimism ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Right ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Performance Results ◽  
Crm Execution

Most sectors of industry, commerce, and government have reported variation in the performance payoff from electronic customer relationship management (e-CRM). In this paper we build on surprisingly sparse literature regarding the importance of managerial discretion to show that the heterogeneity of beliefs held by managers about e-CRM execution matter when explaining e-CRM success. Drawing on a data sample comprising 50 interviews and 293 survey responses we utilise segmentation techniques to identify significant differences in managerial beliefs and then associate these belief segments with e-CRM performance. Results indicate that (1) three distinct types of managers can be identified based on the heterogeneity of their e-CRM beliefs: mindfully optimistic, mindfully realistic, and mindfully pessimistic; (2) that there is far less homogeneity at the individual firm level than is normally assumed in the literature; (3) that het-erogeneity in managerial beliefs is systematically associated with organisational performance; and (4) these results serve to remind practitioners that e-CRM performance is dependent upon the right balance between managerial optimism and realism.

Studying the Incubation of a New Product Market Through Realized and Alternative Histories

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 160-192 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Engler ◽  
Gino Cattani ◽  
Joe Porac
Keyword(s):  
New Product ◽  
General Motors ◽  
Middle Ground ◽  
Firm Level ◽  
Managerial Decisions ◽  
Managerial Beliefs ◽  
Alternative Methodology ◽  
Environmental Shocks ◽  
Product Cannibalization ◽  
Respective Product

In this paper, we contribute to the literature on new market emergence by implementing a “history-friendly” simulation of the incubation period encompassing the decision processes that took place within General Motors (GM), Chrysler, and Ford during the design and development of the first U.S. minivan. Our work offers a “middle ground” alternative methodology for unpacking the “black box” of market incubation processes. Our middle ground approach is useful for exploring the complex interdependencies among four general mechanisms that shape market incubation: environmental shocks that open up new technological possibilities, firm-level capabilities that allow firms to differentially take advantage of these possibilities, various incentives (e.g., product cannibalization, rivalry) that influence a firm’s willingness to exploit new possibilities, and managerial beliefs about the viability of these possibilities. Complex nonlinear interdependencies exist among these mechanisms, and historical contingencies affect the way in which they interact. We identify important historical contingencies within and across GM, Ford, and Chrysler in their precommercialization managerial decisions prior to Chrysler’s introduction of the Voyager and Caravan in 1983. We use the historical details of actual market incubation to calibrate the simulation and develop plausible alternative (both near and hypothetical) histories of that incubation. Understanding why Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors made their respective product commercialization choices not only pertains to automotive history, but can also illuminate the complexities inherent in market incubation processes.

MANAGERIAL BELIEFS ABOUT WORK IN SCOTLAND AND THE U.S.A.

1977 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-101 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Dickson ◽  
Rogene A. Buchholz
Keyword(s):  
Managerial Beliefs
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