Studying the Incubation of a New Product Market Through Realized and Alternative Histories

In this paper, we contribute to the literature on new market emergence by implementing a “history-friendly” simulation of the incubation period encompassing the decision processes that took place within General Motors (GM), Chrysler, and Ford during the design and development of the first U.S. minivan. Our work offers a “middle ground” alternative methodology for unpacking the “black box” of market incubation processes. Our middle ground approach is useful for exploring the complex interdependencies among four general mechanisms that shape market incubation: environmental shocks that open up new technological possibilities, firm-level capabilities that allow firms to differentially take advantage of these possibilities, various incentives (e.g., product cannibalization, rivalry) that influence a firm’s willingness to exploit new possibilities, and managerial beliefs about the viability of these possibilities. Complex nonlinear interdependencies exist among these mechanisms, and historical contingencies affect the way in which they interact. We identify important historical contingencies within and across GM, Ford, and Chrysler in their precommercialization managerial decisions prior to Chrysler’s introduction of the Voyager and Caravan in 1983. We use the historical details of actual market incubation to calibrate the simulation and develop plausible alternative (both near and hypothetical) histories of that incubation. Understanding why Chrysler, Ford, and General Motors made their respective product commercialization choices not only pertains to automotive history, but can also illuminate the complexities inherent in market incubation processes.

Investigating the Use of (Re)Configurability to Reduce Product Family Cost and Mitigate Performance Losses

Commonality amongst a family of products provides both technical and economic advantages. However, with an increase in commonality, a loss of product differentiation can occur, resulting in product cannibalization. Furthermore, there is generally a required tradeoff between performance and cost when incorporating commonality into a family of products. This paper synthesizes recent research in system flexibility, system reconfigurability, and product families to develop a formal design method, which may allow a design firm to decrease family cost, increase commonality, and maintain or improve system performance. The system configurations can be set before they reach the consumer or be capable of being set by the consumer. (Re)configurability is used to denote that the solution may be permanent once configured (i.e., a configurable system) or the changes can be repeatable and reversible (i.e., a reconfigurable system). Added benefits to incorporating principles of product flexibility and (re)configurability are the possibility for the systems to age gracefully, adapt to meet future demands and operating environments, and incorporate newly developed technologies.