scholarly journals Inflation and Output in Germany: The Role of Inflation Expectations

1997 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jürgen Reckwerth
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Expectations

Monetary Policy Committees and Central Bank Communication

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-44
Author(s):  
Nicole Baerg
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Size Composition ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Central Bank Communication ◽  
Central Bank Transparency ◽  
Key Policy

This chapter starts by tracing trends in central bank transparency. It reports key policy changes by some of the world’s most important central banks: the FOMC, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan. The second section reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on central bank design, paying close attention to the role of committee size, composition, and decision-making protocol, and classifies central banks around the world according to these features. The third section outlines the aim of central bank communications: to broadcast news and to reduce noise. The author argues that while previous literature has examined both committee design and central bank communications, it has done so in isolation. By putting these two topics together, the chapter argues that we can better understand, first, how different types of committees may be better at communicating and, second, how communication affects households’ inflation expectations and inflation.

scholarly journals Empirical Evidence on Inflation Expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

2014 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
pp. 124-188 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sophocles Mavroeidis ◽  
Mikkel Plagborg-Møller ◽  
James H. Stock
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Clear Understanding ◽  
New Keynesian Phillips Curve ◽  
Limited Information ◽  
Weak Identification ◽  
Point Estimates

We review the main identification strategies and empirical evidence on the role of expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips curve, paying particular attention to the issue of weak identification. Our goal is to provide a clear understanding of the role of expectations that integrates across the different papers and specifications in the literature. We discuss the properties of the various limited-information econometric methods used in the literature and provide explanations of why they produce conflicting results. Using a common dataset and a flexible empirical approach, we find that researchers are faced with substantial specification uncertainty, as different combinations of various a priori reasonable specification choices give rise to a vast set of point estimates. Moreover, given a specification, estimation is subject to considerable sampling uncertainty due to weak identification. We highlight the assumptions that seem to matter most for identification and the configuration of point estimates. We conclude that the literature has reached a limit on how much can be learned about the New Keynesian Phillips curve from aggregate macroeconomic time series. New identification approaches and new datasets are needed to reach an empirical consensus. (JEL C51, D84, E12, E24, E31)

scholarly journals Inflation Forecasts Versus Shaping Inflation Expectations. Comparative Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 139-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Szyszko
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Measures Of Association ◽  
Inflation Forecasts ◽  
Inflation Forecasting ◽  
Public Expectations ◽  
Starting Point ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Central Bankers

This article jointly analyzes inflation expectations of consumers and inflation forecasts. Its starting point is the predominant role of expectations in monetary policy. This is crucial market information in the decision-making process of the central bankers as it may show the actual future inflation. On the other hand, the central bank wants to influence expectations in order to facilitate achieving the main goals of monetary policy. Inflation forecasting is a tool for shaping public expectations. In the research, covering four central banks (the National Bank of Hungary, National Bank of Poland, the Czech National Bank, Sveriges Riksbank), the author analyzes the interdependencies of inflation forecasts and inflation expectations of consumers. Data on expectations are derived from the surveys and quantified. Then non-parametric measures of association are calculated. The results confirm the hypothesis on the existence of such relationships. The strength of this interdependence varies among countries, from weak to strong. The study opens the field for further discussions on strengthening this relationship.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document