Risk-Adjusted Performances of World Equity Indices

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yigit Atilgan ◽  
K. Ozgur Demirtas
Keyword(s):  
Equity Indices

A Hybrid Model for Equity Indices and Stochastic Interest Rates

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan F. Baldeaux ◽  
Man Chung Fung ◽  
Katja Ignatieva ◽  
Eckhard Platen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Hybrid Model ◽  
Stochastic Interest Rates ◽  
Stochastic Interest ◽  
Equity Indices

scholarly journals The Integration of Conventional Equity Indices with Environmental, Social, and Governance Indices: Evidence from Emerging Economies

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 676
Author(s):  
Ramiz ur Rehman ◽  
Muhammad Zain ul Abidin ◽  
Rizwan Ali ◽  
Safwan Mohd Nor ◽  
Muhammad Akram Naseem ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Function Analysis ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Brics Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Indices

This study investigates the integration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) equity indices with conventional indices in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) individually and across all BRICS countries to better understand regional economic cooperation. Accordingly, we look at daily returns from 13 July 2013 to 28 February 2018 for the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) ESG indices and MSCI composite indices of the respective countries. To analyze the integration between the ESG equity indices of the sampled countries with their regional and across regional conventional counterparts, the Johansen Co-integration test is employed in this study. Further, the vector error correction model (VECM) is applied to test the causality between the sampled time-series. The impulse response function analysis further explains the impulse responses of each country’s MSCI ESG returns to one standard deviation of innovations to MSCI composite returns of the same country and across countries. Finally, the extent of the MSCI composite returns’ impact on the MSCI ESG returns in the same country indices, and cross-regional indices is examined with variance decomposition analysis. The results suggest that all ESG equity indices are integrated with conventional indices in all BRICS countries. Furthermore, there is a short-or long-run causality between MSCI ESG and MSCI composite equity indices of China and South Africa. Moreover, the study finds only short-run causality between conventional and non-conventional equity indices of Brazil and Russia, whereas we find only long-run causality between India’s non-conventional and conventional equity indices. Finally, the study finds that the all-individual country MSCI ESG equity indices shows a long-run causality with MSCI composite equity indices of all other BRICS countries. The findings also confirm the economic and financial cooperation between the BRICS countries.

scholarly journals Regime-Switching Behaviour In US Equity Indices: Two State Model With Kalman Filter Tracking And Finite State Machine Trading System

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothy Little
Keyword(s):  
Regime Switching ◽  
Finite State Machine ◽  
Composite Index ◽  
State Machine ◽  
Trading System ◽  
Switching Model ◽  
Nasdaq Composite Index ◽  
Finite State ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
Equity Indices

This thesis presents a time varying regime-switching model for US equity index daily returns. The parameters of the model are estimated recursively with the Kalman lter. We demonstrate our model and parameter estimation technique are effective by demonstrating improvements in model t compared to alternate models. Information from our model is used to build a Finite State Machine trading system with back-tested performance in excess of 15,000% above a buy and hold strategy for the DOW Jones Industrial average from 1928-2012. Similar results are found for both the S&P 500 index and the NASDAQ Composite index over a long period. Our model succeeds at identifying pro table investment opportunities and improving model t with a minimum of parameters.

DYNAMIC PROBABILISTIC FORECASTING WITH UNCERTAINTY

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRED ESPEN BENTH ◽  
GLEDA KUTROLLI ◽  
SILVANA STEFANI
Keyword(s):  
Stochastic Processes ◽  
Model Uncertainty ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Probability Density Functions ◽  
Density Functions ◽  
Option Prices ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
New Class ◽  
Probability Densities ◽  
Equity Indices

In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model for the time evolution of probability density functions incorporating uncertainty in the parameters. The uncertainty follows stochastic processes, thereby defining a new class of stochastic processes with values in the space of probability densities. The purpose is to quantify uncertainty that can be used for probabilistic forecasting. Starting from a set of traded prices of equity indices, we do some empirical studies. We apply our dynamic probabilistic forecasting to option pricing, where our proposed notion of model uncertainty reduces to uncertainty on future volatility. A distribution of option prices follows, reflecting the uncertainty on the distribution of the underlying prices. We associate measures of model uncertainty of prices in the sense of Cont.

scholarly journals Bootstrap Estimation of Expected Risk and Return of Strategy Equity Indices

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-120
Author(s):  
Veronika Novotná ◽  
Stanislav Škapa
Keyword(s):  
Momentum Strategy ◽  
Bootstrap Estimation ◽  
Ex Post ◽  
Yield Risk ◽  
Suitable Combination ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Equity Index ◽  
Equity Indices ◽  
Sortino Ratio

The aim of this article is to present the results of research associated with the ex-post estimation of expected risk, return and other characteristics of strategy equity indices and capital-weighted equity indices partially and to determine credible methods for a transparent comparison. The data sources are the MSCI and STOXX equity index providers. Suitable statistical methods and a computation-intensive method for estimating selected characteristics have been used and compared to one another.For the measurement of excess return per unit of risk a modified Sortino ratio was used, which takes into account only the downside size and frequency of returns, measuring the return to negative volatility trade-off. Based on our results, it is apparent that some strategic equity indices outperform capital-weighted equity indices in a long-term investment perspective (1997-2018).A suitable combination of strategic equity indices, namely the mix of dividend strategy and momentum strategy may lead to the highest yield / risk ratio expressed by the Sortino ratio. The outperformance path of a mix of dividends and momentum strategy indices is much more stable than either the performance of the individual strategy equity indices or capital-weighted equity indices alone.

scholarly journals An Empirical Investigation of Islamic Calendar Effect in Global Islamic Equity Indices

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 57 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nida Shah ◽  
Muhammad Nadeem Qureshi ◽  
Yasra Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Empirical Investigation ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Regression Methods ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
Equity Indices ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Global Stock

This study aims to explore the effect of Islamic Months specifically Ramadan and Zil-Haj on the stock returns and volatility of the Islamic Global Equity Indices. For the said purpose, the data on three Global Equity Islamic Indices including; Dow Jones Islamic Market World Index, MSCI ACWI Islamic Index, and S&P Global BMI Shariah Index are collected from 5th Jan 2011 (1st Muharram 1432 A.H.) to 12th November 2015 (30th Muharram 1437 A.H.). Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and GARCH (1,1) regression methods are applied to analyze the impact of the Islamic months on global stock returns and volatility respectively. Empirical results reveal significant negative impact of Zil-Haj on returns and volatility of Islamic Global Equity Indices. However, no significant impact of Ramadan on returns and volatility of Islamic Global Equity Indices are revealed. These findings will be fascinating and of utmost interest amidst the researchers, investors and practitioners.

scholarly journals FORECASTING GLOBAL EQUITY INDICES USING LARGE BAYESIAN VARS

2016 ◽  
Vol 69 (3) ◽  
pp. 288-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Huber ◽  
Tamás Krisztin ◽  
Philipp Piribauer
Keyword(s):  
Equity Indices ◽  
Bayesian Vars
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