Improving the Performance of Risk Analysis Applied to Petroleum Field Development

2003 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliana L. Ligero ◽  
Ana Paula A. Costa ◽  
Denis J. Schiozer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Petroleum Field

Comparison of Techniques for Risk Analysis Applied to Petroleum-Field Development

2005 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliana Luci Ligero ◽  
Marcelo Gomes Madeira ◽  
Denis Jose Schiozer
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Comparison Of Techniques ◽  
Petroleum Field

Information, robustness, and flexibility to manage uncertainties in petroleum field development

2021 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 107562
Author(s):  
Susana M.G. Santos ◽  
Ana T.F.S. Gaspar ◽  
Denis J. Schiozer
Keyword(s):  
Field Development ◽  
Petroleum Field

scholarly journals Model-based decision analysis applied to petroleum field development and management

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 ◽  
pp. 46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Denis José Schiozer ◽  
Antonio Alberto de Souza dos Santos ◽  
Susana Margarida de Graça Santos ◽  
João Carlos von Hohendorff Filho
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Decision Analysis ◽  
Reservoir Simulation ◽  
History Matching ◽  
Model Updating ◽  
Production Optimization ◽  
Optimization Under Uncertainty ◽  
Computational Time ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Development And Management

This work describes a new methodology for integrated decision analysis in the development and management of petroleum fields considering reservoir simulation, risk analysis, history matching, uncertainty reduction, representative models, and production strategy selection under uncertainty. Based on the concept of closed-loop reservoir management, we establish 12 steps to assist engineers in model updating and production optimization under uncertainty. The methodology is applied to UNISIM-I-D, a benchmark case based on the Namorado field in the Campos Basin, Brazil. The results show that the method is suitable for use in practical applications of complex reservoirs in different field stages (development and management). First, uncertainty is characterized in detail and then scenarios are generated using an efficient sampling technique, which reduces the number of evaluations and is suitable for use with numerical reservoir simulation. We then perform multi-objective history-matching procedures, integrating static data (geostatistical realizations generated using reservoir information) and dynamic data (well production and pressure) to reduce uncertainty and thus provide a set of matched models for production forecasts. We select a small set of Representative Models (RMs) for decision risk analysis, integrating reservoir, economic and other uncertainties to base decisions on risk-return techniques. We optimize the production strategies for (1) each individual RM to obtain different specialized solutions for field development and (2) all RMs simultaneously in a probabilistic procedure to obtain a robust strategy. While the second approach ensures the best performance under uncertainty, the first provides valuable insights for the expected value of information and flexibility analyses. Finally, we integrate reservoir and production systems to ensure realistic production forecasts. This methodology uses reservoir simulations, not proxy models, to reliably predict field performance. The proposed methodology is efficient, easy-to-use and compatible with real-time operations, even in complex cases where the computational time is restrictive.

Uncertainty in Petroleum Field Development Projects

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandre A. Chamanski ◽  
Ove T. Gudmestad
Keyword(s):  
Development Process ◽  
Capital Intensity ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Effective Management ◽  
Successful Management ◽  
Field Development ◽  
Petroleum Fields ◽  
Conflicting Interests ◽  
Petroleum Field ◽  
Hostile Environments

The development of petroleum fields involves both technical and commercial uncertainties. The technical uncertainties associate with the geological and technical complexity of producing hydrocarbon resources, especially in hostile environments. The commercial uncertainties, in turn, associate with the capital intensity of the petroleum field development projects and the volatility of the petroleum markets. In addition, petroleum field development projects are usually large and complex, and their successful realization requires effective management of numerous activities, and, often, resolving conflicting interests of the parties involved in the projects. A better understanding of uncertainty is therefore essential for successful management of petroleum field development projects. The sample examined in this study included 48 Western and Russian experts in petroleum field development. The experts’ responses to a questionnaire were used to identify the key uncertainty factors in the petroleum field development process and analyze the heterogeneity of the experts’ opinions.

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