FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY ANALYSIS WITHIN MEDIUM TERM IN UKRAINE

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (25) ◽  
pp. 66-73
Author(s):  
R. L. Balakin ◽  
O. P. Onufriichuk
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Sustainability Analysis

scholarly journals Afghanistan: Balancing Social and Security Spending in the Context of a Shrinking Resource Envelope

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aqib Aslam ◽  
Enrico Berkes ◽  
Martin Fukac ◽  
Jeta Menkulasi ◽  
Axel Schimmelpfennig
Keyword(s):  
Central Government ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Donor Support ◽  
Macroeconomic Impact ◽  
Strategic Policy ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Government

For Afghanistan, the dual prospect of declining donor support and high ongoing security spending over the medium term keeps its government budget tight. This paper uses a general equilibrium model to capture the security–development trade-off facing the government in its effort to rehabilitate growth and fiscal sustainability. In particular, it considers strategic policy options for counteracting and minimizing the negative macroeconomic impact of possible aid and revenue shortfalls. We find that the mobilization of domestic revenues through changes in tax policy is the preferred policy response for the Afghan central government. Such a response helps to place its finances on a sustainable path in the near term and preserve most of the growth potential. Cutting expenditures balances public finances but causes the economy to permanently shrink. Debt financing helps to preserve much of the economy size but can quickly put the sustainability of public finances at risk.

scholarly journals Montenegro

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (293) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Government Debt ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Adjustment Strategy ◽  
Major Highway ◽  
Highway Project

The economy has grown strongly since 2015, bolstered by large investments and tourism. While the construction of the first phase of a major highway project has boosted growth, it has also raised government debt. To preserve fiscal sustainability, the authorities embarked on a medium-term adjustment strategy in 2017. The financial sector has been stable and two non-systemic banks were placed into bankruptcy this year.

scholarly journals A Fiscal Rule to Achieve Debt Sustainability in Colombia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
María Angélica Arbeláez ◽  
Miguel Benítez ◽  
Roberto Steiner ◽  
Oscar Valencia
Keyword(s):  
Institutional Design ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Fiscal Rule ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Risk Methodology

In order to enhance fiscal sustainability and regain “investment grade” credit rating, in 2011 Colombia implemented a fiscal rule (FR) on the Central Government's structural balance. Investment grade was rapidly attained, and FR targets were complied with, until 2019. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we provide evidence that the FR promoted fiscal discipline. Nevertheless, public debt has increased continuously and is now expected to exceed 60 percent of GDP, in large part driven by the pandemic. We argue that the FR should be reformed so as to incorporate a debt anchor. Using a regime change model and the IMFs buffer risk methodology, we show that the prudent debt level should not exceed 48 percent of GDP and that in order to achieve this in the medium term, a policy mix increasing revenues to 17.8 percent of GDP (from 15.5 percent during 2016-2019) and reducing primary expenditure to 15 percent (from 16 percent during 2016-2019) is required. FR's performance would also benefit from changes in its institutional design.

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