scholarly journals The Influence of Covid-19 on the Public Debt Growth and Default Risk: A Fiscal Sustainability Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Abuselidze
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
The Public ◽  
Sustainability Analysis

Nachhaltige Finanzpolitik unter Berücksichtigung gleichwertiger Lebensverhältnisse

2005 ◽  
Vol 54 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
André W. Heinemann
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Living Conditions ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Future Generations ◽  
Federal System ◽  
The Public ◽  
Ex Ante ◽  
One To One ◽  
The One

AbstractThe concept of fiscal sustainability is a helpful ex-ante instrument to analyse public budgets. The concept addresses the question which extent of public debt can be carried by future generations and states whether the burden of a certain debt is acceptable or not. This instrument is designed for total public budgets including several possible activities of the public sector. However, there are arguments against the one to one transformation of the concept of sustainability to the subnational level. The present paper deals with the argument of “critical minimum levels” of spending in consideration of equivalent living conditions within a federal system.

Policy asymmetries and fiscal sustainability: evidence from Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Opeoluwa Adeniyi Adeosun ◽  
Olumide Steven Ayodele ◽  
Olajide Clement Jongbo
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Constant Parameter ◽  
Policy Rule ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Analysis ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
Fiscal Balance

PurposeThis study examines and compares different specifications of the fiscal policy rule in the fiscal sustainability analysis of Nigeria.Design/methodology/approachThis is methodologically achieved by estimating the baseline constant-parameter and Markov regime switching fiscal models. The asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag fiscal model is also employed to substantiate the differential responses of fiscal authorities to public debt.FindingsThe baseline constant-parameter fiscal model provides mixed results of sustainable and unsustainable fiscal policy. The inconclusiveness is adduced to instability in primary fiscal balance–public debt dynamics. This makes it necessary to capture regime switches in the fiscal policy rule. The Markov switching estimations show a protracted fiscal unsustainable regime that is inconsistent with the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC). The no-Ponzi game and debt stabilizing results of the Markov switching fiscal model further revealed that the transversality and debt stability conditions were not satisfied. Additional findings from the asymmetric autoregressive model estimation show that fiscal consolidation responses vary with contraction and expansion in output and spending, coupled with downturns and upturns in public debt dynamics in both the long and short run. These findings thus confirm the presence of asymmetries in the fiscal policy authorities' reactions to public debt. Further, additional evidences show the violation of the IBC which is exacerbated by the deleterious effect of the pro-cyclical fiscal policy response in boom on the improvement of the primary fiscal balance.Originality/valueThis study deviates from the extant literature by accommodating time variation, periodic switches and fiscal policy asymmetries in the fiscal sustainability analysis of Nigeria.

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability And Fiscal Reaction Functions In The US And UK

2012 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 935 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Burger
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
The Public ◽  
Reaction Functions ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

Following the 2008/9 financial and economic crisis, public debt/GDP ratios in several countries rose to their highest levels in 40 years. Also in the US and the UK did the public debt/GDP ratios increase significantly, thereby putting the spotlight again on fiscal sustainability. Based on past behaviour, this article asks whether fiscal policy in these two countries is likely to be sustainable. The article investigates how the US and UK governments, by changing their deficits, react to changes in their debt positions. To do this, the article estimates fiscal reaction functions using Smooth Transition Regressions. It finds that based on past behaviour, fiscal policy in both the US and UK can be expected to remain sustainable. Based on the same past behaviour, and assuming this behaviour will continue in the future, the article also calculates the levels to which the public debt/GDP ratios in the US and UK can be expected to converge.

Fiscal risks are low but rising in Turkey

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Government

Subject Turkey's fiscal sustainability. Significance By keeping fiscal deficits low, the government has steadily reduced the public debt to about 33% of GDP. However, fiscal policy is now shoring up growth. There is also concern about the lack of further public financial reform, insufficient transparency and contingent liabilities. Impacts Wider budget deficits may not affect growth notably, given the weak global economy and low private investment and investor confidence. Turkey will have one of Europe's lowest public-debt levels, but investors may need to pay more attention to public finances. Fiscal policy could join more urgent worries about politics, the current-account deficit, private-sector debt and monetary policy.

scholarly journals Financial stability, fiscal sustainability and changes in debt structure after economic downturn

Ekonomika ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 94 (3) ◽  
pp. 70-85 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virgilijus Rutkauskas
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Private Debt ◽  
Financial Flows ◽  
The Public ◽  
Flow Of Funds

In this paper, the author finds links among changes in private and public debt during economic downturn and discusses their financial stability and fiscal sustainability consequences. Financial deepening in years before the economic downturn resulted in the growth of indebtedness among agents within economy that sustained afterwards. The European Union has not become less indebted during and after the economic meltdown, but the structure of debt holders has changed. The growth of private debt in the upturn phase resulted in a qualitatively new level of economy. However, in order to sustain the same level after the economic downturn, the public sector was forced to increase its debt. As a result, interactions among financial stability and fiscal sustainability have become more pronounced as monetary financial institutions experienced deleveraging from the private sector and an increase of leverage from the public sector. Thus, the financial stability and fiscal sustainability nexus is analysed by employing flow-of-funds data that show balanced interlinkages among real and financial flows. Recent discussions on sovereign debt instability and suggestions to diminish public debt whatever it costs lack an appropriate answer who will replace it as the flow-of-funds in economy is always in balance.

IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEBT ON FINANCIAL SECURITY OF UKRAINE

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olena Pikaliuk ◽  
◽  
Dmitry Kovalenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Security ◽  
State Budget ◽  
The Public ◽  
Debt Security ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Impact

One of the main criteria for economic development is the size of the public debt and its dynamics. The article considers the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine. The views of scientists on the essence of public debt and financial security of the state are substantiated. An analysis of the dynamics and structure of public debt of Ukraine for 2014-2019. It is proved that one of the main criteria for economic development is the size of public debt and its dynamics. State budget deficit, attracting and using loans to cover it have led to the formation and significant growth of public debt in Ukraine. The volume of public debt indicates an increase in the debt security of the state, which is a component of financial security. Therefore, the issue of the impact of public debt on the financial security of Ukraine is becoming increasingly relevant. The constant growth and large amounts of debt make it necessary to study it, which will have a positive impact on economic processes that will ensure the stability of the financial system and enhance its security.

Public and Private Net Savings in Developing Countries: Some Empirical Tests for the Period 1972-88 (Distinguishedl Lecture)

1992 ◽  
Vol 31 (4I) ◽  
pp. 431-447
Author(s):  
Peter A. Cornelisse ◽  
Elma Van De Mortel
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Socioeconomic Development ◽  
Critical Size ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Critical Dimensions ◽  
The Public ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Financial Issues

The severe shocks that rocked the world economy in the 1970s and the ensuing efforts to adjust and to renew economic growth have had a profound effect on the economic literature. Especially the external and public debt problems which reached critical dimensions in many countries attracted much attention. Thus, in the field of macroeconomics financial issues have gained more prominence over the last two decades. Studies relating to the fiscal deficit have been particularly numerous. The critical size of national public debts, the contribution of the public debt to external debt, the reduced confidence in the state as the guide in socioeconomic development and the role of fiscal policy in adjustment processes are among the main reasons for this increased interest.

التأثيرات السياسية في استدامة الدين العام في موازنة العراق 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 (66) ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
م.م أحمد حامد جمعة ◽  
◽  
د. كمال فيلد البصري
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
The Political ◽  
Financial Policy ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Public Budget ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefit ◽  
Political Impact

This study clarifies the analysis of the reality of the financial policy in the budget of Iraq 2019, and that analysis is evaluated by tracking the elements of the public budget from public expenditures and public revenues, and the study focuses on the size of the political impact on the path of public spending, as well as the analysis of public spending and revenues in various sectors and sections of the public budget. This study also shows the size of the risks resulting from the continuation of the financial deficit, as well as the risks of public debt according to the indicators of its sustainability analysis within the financial and economic indicators that express the risks of public debt. The study emphasized that public spending is still based on the political decision and does not achieve the principles and objectives of the economic budget that achieve the public benefit. The necessity requires efficient spending and fair distribution in order to avoid future public debt risks and their impact on future generations

Fiscal Sustainability, Default Risk and Euro Area Sovereign Bond Spreads

2011 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vladimir Borgy ◽  
Thomas Laubach ◽  
Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier ◽  
Jean-Paul Renne
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Default Risk ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Bond Spreads
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