Time-Dependent Distributed Afterslip on and Deep below the Izmit Earthquake Rupture

2002 ◽  
Vol 92 (1) ◽  
pp. 126-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Burgmann
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Izmit Earthquake

scholarly journals Probabilistic Space- and Time-Interaction Modeling of Mainshock Earthquake Rupture Occurrence

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luis Ceferino ◽  
Anne Kiremidjian ◽  
Gregory Deierlein
Keyword(s):  
Seismic Hazard ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Spatial Interaction ◽  
Information Criterion ◽  
Passage Time ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Attractive Alternative ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Time Interaction ◽  
Seismic Moment Release

ABSTRACT This article presents a probabilistic formulation for modeling earthquake rupture processes of mainshocks. A correlated multivariate Bernoulli distribution is used to model rupture occurrence. The model captures time interaction through the use of Brownian passage-time distributions to assess rupture interarrival in multiple sections of the fault, and it also considers spatial interaction through the use of spatial correlograms. The correlograms represents the effect of rupture nucleation and propagation. This model is proposed as an attractive alternative to existing probabilistic models because it (1) incorporates time and space interactions of mainshocks, (2) preserves the marginal distributions of interarrival times after including spatial rupture interactions, that is, model consistency, and (3) has an implicit physical interpretation aligned with rupture behavior observations. The proposed model is applied to assess the occurrence of large interface earthquakes in the subduction fault along the coast of Lima, Peru. The model matches well both the annual magnitude exceedance rates and the average seismic moment release in the tectonic region. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) test confirms that our model performs statistically better than models that do not capture earthquake space interactions. AIC also shows that the spherical correlogram outperforms the exponential correlogram at reproducing earthquake data. Finally, time-dependent seismic hazard in the region is calculated, and the results demonstrate that by accounting for recent earthquake occurrences, the inclusion of time-dependent effects can reduce the 30 yr seismic hazard by a factor of 4.

scholarly journals M ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (4) ◽  
pp. 2679-2707 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Murru ◽  
A. Akinci ◽  
G. Falcone ◽  
S. Pucci ◽  
R. Console ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Marmara Region ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Sea Of Marmara ◽  
Dependent Probability

Paleoseismic history and slip rate along the Sapanca-Akyazı segment of the 1999 İzmit earthquake rupture (M w  = 7.4) of the North Anatolian Fault (Turkey)

2018 ◽  
Vol 738-739 ◽  
pp. 92-111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aynur Dikbaş ◽  
H. Serdar Akyüz ◽  
Mustapha Meghraoui ◽  
Matthieu Ferry ◽  
Erhan Altunel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Slip Rate ◽  
North Anatolian Fault ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Izmit Earthquake ◽  
The North

scholarly journals Linked 3-D modelling of megathrust earthquake-tsunami events: from subduction to tsunami run up

2020 ◽  
Vol 224 (1) ◽  
pp. 487-516 ◽  
Author(s):  
E H Madden ◽  
M Bader ◽  
J Behrens ◽  
Y van Dinther ◽  
A-A Gabriel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Stress Drop ◽  
Earthquake Source ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Tsunami Source ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Temporal Behaviour ◽  
Coastal Inundation ◽  
Megathrust Earthquake ◽  
Run Up ◽  
Earthquake Characteristics

SUMMARY How does megathrust earthquake rupture govern tsunami behaviour? Recent modelling advances permit evaluation of the influence of 3-D earthquake dynamics on tsunami genesis, propagation, and coastal inundation. Here, we present and explore a virtual laboratory in which the tsunami source arises from 3-D coseismic seafloor displacements generated by a dynamic earthquake rupture model. This is achieved by linking open-source earthquake and tsunami computational models that follow discontinuous Galerkin schemes and are facilitated by highly optimized parallel algorithms and software. We present three scenarios demonstrating the flexibility and capabilities of linked modelling. In the first two scenarios, we use a dynamic earthquake source including time-dependent spontaneous failure along a 3-D planar fault surrounded by homogeneous rock and depth-dependent, near-lithostatic stresses. We investigate how slip to the trench influences tsunami behaviour by simulating one blind and one surface-breaching rupture. The blind rupture scenario exhibits distinct earthquake characteristics (lower slip, shorter rupture duration, lower stress drop, lower rupture speed), but the tsunami is similar to that from the surface-breaching rupture in run-up and length of impacted coastline. The higher tsunami-generating efficiency of the blind rupture may explain how there are differences in earthquake characteristics between the scenarios, but similarities in tsunami inundation patterns. However, the lower seafloor displacements in the blind rupture result in a smaller displaced volume of water leading to a narrower inundation corridor inland from the coast and a 15 per cent smaller inundation area overall. In the third scenario, the 3-D earthquake model is initialized using a seismo-thermo-mechanical geodynamic model simulating both subduction dynamics and seismic cycles. This ensures that the curved fault geometry, heterogeneous stresses and strength and material structure are consistent with each other and with millions of years of modelled deformation in the subduction channel. These conditions lead to a realistic rupture in terms of velocity and stress drop that is blind, but efficiently generates a tsunami. In all scenarios, comparison with the tsunamis sourced by the time-dependent seafloor displacements, using only the time-independent displacements alters tsunami temporal behaviour, resulting in later tsunami arrival at the coast, but faster coastal inundation. In the scenarios with the surface-breaching and subduction-initialized earthquakes, using the time-independent displacements also overpredicts run-up. In the future, the here presented scenarios may be useful for comparison of alternative dynamic earthquake-tsunami modelling approaches or linking choices, and can be readily developed into more complex applications to study how earthquake source dynamics influence tsunami genesis, propagation and inundation.

scholarly journals Rapid changes in the electrical state of the 1999 Izmit earthquake rupture zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshimori Honkura ◽  
Naoto Oshiman ◽  
Masaki Matsushima ◽  
Şerif Barış ◽  
Mustafa Kemal Tunçer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Rupture Zone ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Izmit Earthquake ◽  
Rapid Changes ◽  
Electrical State

Linking the Anatolian microplate rigid motions to the 1999 Mw = 7.5 Izmit earthquake rupture

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juan Ignacio Martin de Blas ◽  
Giampiero Iaffaldano ◽  
Eric Calais
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Evolution ◽  
Rigid Motion ◽  
Western Anatolia ◽  
Plate Boundaries ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Earthquake Cycle ◽  
Tectonic Plates ◽  
Izmit Earthquake ◽  
The North ◽  
Rigid Motions

<p><span>It is typically assumed that the occurrence of large earthquakes along the margins of tectonic plates does not impact on their rigid motions. However, for tectonic units of small size (i.e. for microplates), the viscous resistance at the plate base, and thus the torques needed to change their rigid motions, are significantly smaller than those needed for medium/large-size plates. In fact, a recent study that makes use of numerical simulations of synthetic microplates indicates that it is theoretically possible to link the temporal evolution of geodetically-observed microplate motions to the buildup and release of stresses associated with the earthquake cycle.</span></p><p><span>Here, we focus on the motion of the Anatolian microplate. We extract its rigid motion from GPS time series spanning the time around the 1999 M</span><sub><span>W</span></sub><span> = 7.5 Izmit earthquake. We select </span><span>those</span><span> GPS stations that are sufficiently away from plate boundaries, such as the North Anatolian Fault, the East Anatolian Fault and the Western Anatolia Extensional Province. Then, we attempt linking the temporal evolution of the Anatolian microplate rigid motion to the stresses associated with the 1999 M</span><sub><span>W</span></sub><span> = 7.5 Izmit earthquake rupture. The novelty of our approach lies in the fact that, in contrast to current models of the earthquake cycle, we connect earthquake stresses to changes in plate rigid motions and not to the crustal deformation in the vicinity of earthquake-prone faults.</span></p>

Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (2A) ◽  
pp. 511-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward H. Field ◽  
Glenn P. Biasi ◽  
Peter Bird ◽  
Timothy E. Dawson ◽  
Karen R. Felzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
The Third

Estimation of the time-dependent crustal movements of the İzmit Earthquake

2003 ◽  
Vol 36 (5) ◽  
pp. 615-632 ◽  
Author(s):  
U. Doğan ◽  
S. Ergintav ◽  
H. Demirel ◽  
R. Çakmak ◽  
H. Özener
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Crustal Movements ◽  
Izmit Earthquake
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