scholarly journals M ≥ 7 earthquake rupture forecast and time-dependent probability for the sea of Marmara region, Turkey

2016 ◽  
Vol 121 (4) ◽  
pp. 2679-2707 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Murru ◽  
A. Akinci ◽  
G. Falcone ◽  
S. Pucci ◽  
R. Console ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Marmara Region ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
Sea Of Marmara ◽  
Dependent Probability

In the light of new data: The population of the first farming communities in the eastern Marmara region

2020 ◽  
Vol 95 (1) ◽  
pp. 48-77
Author(s):  
M. Songül Alpaslan-Roodenberg ◽  
Jacob Roodenberg
Keyword(s):  
Demographic Data ◽  
Mortuary Practices ◽  
Marmara Region ◽  
Sea Of Marmara ◽  
Degenerative Arthritis ◽  
Farming Communities ◽  
High Infant Mortality ◽  
Early Farming ◽  
Attitude Toward Death ◽  
Early Farmers

AbstractFollowing on from a few decades of osteological analysis this study presents an assessment of the data retrieved from human population samples provided by four early farming sites, namely Ilıpınar, Menteşe, Barcın and Aktopraklık, located in the lake basins southeast of the Sea of Marmara. It highlights various aspects of that population such as demographic data, health, trauma, and ancient people’s attitude toward death. The research aims to identify and discuss similarities and dissimilarities between the studied Neolithic settlements in this region, especially with regard to paleo-demographic data and the use of violence. With exception of a small group of burials at Aktopraklık that contrasted with regular inhumations, it seems that mortuary practices barely differed from one community to another, and transcended across regional boundaries. The use of wooden planks covering the bottom of grave pits, which were first discovered at Ilıpınar, may serve as an example. Early farmers of the eastern Marmara region suffered mostly from joint diseases and degenerative arthritis. Their life expectancy was similar for adults of both sexes, at between 25–40 years, while two of the four communities showed high infant mortality.

Quantifying electron transit in donor-bridge-acceptor systems using probabilistic confidence

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (07) ◽  
pp. 1850046 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evan Curtin ◽  
Gloria Bazargan ◽  
Karl Sohlberg
Keyword(s):  
Charge Transport ◽  
Conditional Probability ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Probability Analysis ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Quantum Particles ◽  
Transit Times ◽  
Conditional Probability Analysis ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Dependent Probability

A probabilistic approach to characterizing transit times for quantum particles is generalized to a system of more than two spatial regions and applied to the transport of charge in donor-bridge-acceptor systems. The approach is based on applying conditional probability analysis to a discrete representation of the time-dependent probability density as generated by numerical solution of the time-dependent Schrödinger equation for an initially localized electron. To carry out this analysis, it is first necessary to cast the conditional probability analysis approach in matrix form. The results afford a quantification of the electron transit time and may provide a tool to gain insight into the mechanism of charge transport.

scholarly journals SIGNIFICANT EARTHQUAKES NEAR THE CITY OF THESSALONIKI (NORTHERN GREECE) AND PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION ON FAULTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 1389
Author(s):  
P.M. Paradisopoulou ◽  
E.E. Papadimitriou ◽  
J. Mirek
Keyword(s):  
Stress Transfer ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Earthquake Catalog ◽  
Northern Greece ◽  
Earthquake Probability ◽  
Fault Segment ◽  
Probability Estimates ◽  
Macroseismic Intensities ◽  
The City ◽  
Dependent Probability

Stress triggering must be incorporated into quantitative earthquake probability estimate, given that faults are interacted though their stress field. Using time dependent probability estimates this work aims at the evaluation of the occurrence probability of anticipated earthquakes near the city of Thessaloniki, an urban center of 1 million people located in northern Greece, conditional to the time elapsed since the last stronger event on each fault segment of the study area. A method that calculates the macroseismic epicenter and magnitude according to macroseismic intensities is used to improve the existing earthquake catalog (from AD 1600 - 2013 with M≥6.0) in order to compute new interevent and elapsed time values which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. To investigate the effects of stress transfer to seismic hazard, the probabilistic calculations presented here employ detailed models of coseismic stress associated with the 20 June 1978 M=6.5 Thessaloniki which is the latest destructive earthquake in the area in the instrumental era. The combined 2015-2045 regional Poisson probability of M≥6.0 earthquakes is ~35% the regional time-dependent probability varies from 0% to 15% and incorporation of stress transfer from 0% to 20% for each fault segment.

Analysis of Feedback Retrial Queue with Starting Failure and Server Vacation

2016 ◽  
pp. 71-96
Author(s):  
K. Sathiya Thiyagarajan ◽  
G. Ayyappan
Keyword(s):  
Steady State ◽  
Performance Measures ◽  
Generating Functions ◽  
Retrial Queue ◽  
Laplace Transforms ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Steady State Analysis ◽  
Starting Failure ◽  
Dependent Probability ◽  
Bernoulli Vacation

In this chapter we discusses a batch arrival feedback retrial queue with Bernoulli vacation, where the server is subjected to starting failure. Any arriving batch finding the server busy, breakdown or on vacation enters an orbit. Otherwise one customer from the arriving batch enters a service immediately while the rest join the orbit. After the completion of each service, the server either goes for a vacation with probability or may wait for serving the next customer. Repair times, service times and vacation times are assumed to be arbitrarily distributed. The time dependent probability generating functions have been obtained in terms of their Laplace transforms. The steady state analysis and key performance measures of the system are also studied. Finally, some numerical illustrations are presented.

Time-Dependent Reliability Analysis of Vibratory Systems With Random Parameters

2016 ◽  
Vol 138 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zissimos P. Mourelatos ◽  
Monica Majcher ◽  
Vasileios Geroulas
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Probability Of Failure ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Conditional Probabilities ◽  
Random Parameters ◽  
Random Vibrations ◽  
Input Parameters ◽  
Total Probability Theorem ◽  
Dependent Probability

The field of random vibrations of large-scale systems with millions of degrees-of-freedom (DOF) is of significant importance in many engineering disciplines. In this paper, we propose a method to calculate the time-dependent reliability of linear vibratory systems with random parameters excited by nonstationary Gaussian processes. The approach combines principles of random vibrations, the total probability theorem, and recent advances in time-dependent reliability using an integral equation involving the upcrossing and joint upcrossing rates. A space-filling design, such as optimal symmetric Latin hypercube (OSLH) sampling, is first used to sample the input parameter space. For each design point, the corresponding conditional time-dependent probability of failure is calculated efficiently using random vibrations principles to obtain the statistics of the output process and an efficient numerical estimation of the upcrossing and joint upcrossing rates. A time-dependent metamodel is then created between the input parameters and the output conditional probabilities allowing us to estimate the conditional probabilities for any set of input parameters. The total probability theorem is finally applied to calculate the time-dependent probability of failure. The proposed method is demonstrated using a vibratory beam example.

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