Long‐Term Time‐Dependent Probabilities for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

2015 ◽  
Vol 105 (2A) ◽  
pp. 511-543 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward H. Field ◽  
Glenn P. Biasi ◽  
Peter Bird ◽  
Timothy E. Dawson ◽  
Karen R. Felzer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Earthquake Rupture ◽  
The Third

Laura’s Students One and Seven Years Later

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marilyn Watson
Keyword(s):  
School District ◽  
Life Skills ◽  
Adopted Child ◽  
The Third

In the third year, Laura took a leave through November to help settle her newly adopted child. Her students missed her and, when she returned, some seemed to have reverted to their original untrusting selves. Soon, their trust in Laura and in themselves was restored. Would that trust remain? Seven years later, I interviewed 9 of the 14 students still in the school district. All remembered Laura and the class fondly. Eight had detailed memories of their interactions with Laura, and the life skills and attitudes they learned in her class. Of the six students who were judged insecurely attached when they entered Laura’s class, four appeared successful and confident and two were currently failing most of their courses. Possible causes for the long-term success of some students and failure of others are discussed.

GA: Armani’s Giorgio Armani

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul Brooker ◽  
Margaret Hayward
Keyword(s):  
Final Section ◽  
The Body ◽  
Body Shop ◽  
The Third ◽  
Haute Couture ◽  
Fashion Designer ◽  
The Body Shop ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Career Woman

The Armani high-fashion example illustrates the importance of adaptive rational methods in his founding and developing of an iconic high-fashion firm. Armani adapted stylistically to fashion’s new times in the 1970–80s by creating a new style catering for the career woman. His stylistic adaptation is compared with that of another famous Italian fashion designer, Versace, who instead modernized haute couture fashion and created a succession of glamourous styles. Both leaders exploited the same opportunity but in different ways. The third section compares these leaders’ legacies in the 1990s–2000s and assesses from a long-term perspective how capably they had used adaptive rational methods. The final section shifts the focus from fashion to the cosmetics industry and from Italy to the UK. Anita Roddick used adaptive rational methods to establish The Body Shop corporation in the 1970s–80s. However, she then abandoned rational methods with dire results for her corporation in the 1990s.

In Situ Tests on Creep Behavior of Rock Mass with Joint or Shearing Zone in Foundation of Large-Scale Hydroelectric Projects

2004 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 1097-1102 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Liu ◽  
Xia Ting Feng ◽  
Xiu Li Ding ◽  
Huo Ming Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Rock Mass ◽  
Creep Behavior ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Three Gorges Project ◽  
Three Gorges ◽  
The Three Gorges ◽  
The Three Gorges Project

The time-dependent behavior of rock mass, which is generally governed by joints and shearing zones, is of great significance for engineering design and prediction of long-term deformation and stability. In situ creep test is a more effective method than laboratory test in characterizing the creep behavior of rock mass with joint or shearing zone due to the complexity of field conditions. A series of in situ creep tests on granite with joint at the shiplock area of the Three-Gorges Project and basalt with shearing zone at the right abutment of the Xiluodu Project were performed in this study. Based on the test results, the stress-displacement-time responses of the joints and basalt are analyzed, and their time-dependent constitutive model and model coefficients are given, which is crucial for the design to prevent the creep deformations of rock masses from causing the failure of the operation of the shiplock gate at the Three-Gorges Project and long-term stability of the Xiluodu arc dam.

scholarly journals Extended analytical formulae for the perturbed Keplerian motion under low-thrust acceleration and orbital perturbations

2021 ◽  
Vol 133 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marilena Di Carlo ◽  
Simão da Graça Marto ◽  
Massimiliano Vasile
Keyword(s):  
Gravitational Perturbation ◽  
Low Thrust ◽  
Orbital Elements ◽  
Third Body ◽  
The Third ◽  
Orbital Perturbations ◽  
Analytical Formulae ◽  
Numerical Orbit ◽  
Body Potential

AbstractThis paper presents a collection of analytical formulae that can be used in the long-term propagation of the motion of a spacecraft subject to low-thrust acceleration and orbital perturbations. The paper considers accelerations due to: a low-thrust profile following an inverse square law, gravity perturbations due to the central body gravity field and the third-body gravitational perturbation. The analytical formulae are expressed in terms of non-singular equinoctial elements. The formulae for the third-body gravitational perturbation have been obtained starting from equations for the third-body potential already available in the literature. However, the final analytical formulae for the variation of the equinoctial orbital elements are a novel derivation. The results are validated, for different orbital regimes, using high-precision numerical orbit propagators.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of a hybrid emergency room system for severe trauma: a health technology assessment from the perspective of the third-party payer in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Takahiro Kinoshita ◽  
Kensuke Moriwaki ◽  
Nao Hanaki ◽  
Tetsuhisa Kitamura ◽  
Kazuma Yamakawa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
Emergency Room ◽  
Healthcare Costs ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Severe Trauma ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Trauma Patients ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Third

Abstract Background Hybrid emergency room (ER) systems, consisting of an angiography-computed tomography (CT) machine in a trauma resuscitation room, are reported to be effective for reducing death from exsanguination in trauma patients. We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a hybrid ER system in severe trauma patients without severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods We conducted a cost-utility analysis comparing the hybrid ER system to the conventional ER system from the perspective of the third-party healthcare payer in Japan. A short-term decision tree and a long-term Markov model using a lifetime time horizon were constructed to estimate quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and associated lifetime healthcare costs. Short-term mortality and healthcare costs were derived from medical records and claims data in a tertiary care hospital with a hybrid ER. Long-term mortality and utilities were extrapolated from the literature. The willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $47,619 per QALY gained and the discount rate was 2%. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The hybrid ER system was associated with a gain of 1.03 QALYs and an increment of $33,591 lifetime costs compared to the conventional ER system, resulting in an ICER of $32,522 per QALY gained. The ICER was lower than the willingness-to-pay threshold if the odds ratio of 28-day mortality was < 0.66. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that the hybrid ER system was cost-effective with a 79.3% probability. Conclusion The present study suggested that the hybrid ER system is a likely cost-effective strategy for treating severe trauma patients without severe TBI.

Long-term performance of prestressed concrete continuous box girders in the natural environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (7) ◽  
pp. 856-864
Author(s):  
Guohui Cao ◽  
Wang Zhang ◽  
Jiaxing Hu ◽  
Xirong Peng
Keyword(s):  
Prestressed Concrete ◽  
Load Test ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Material Strength ◽  
Practical Calculation ◽  
Box Girders ◽  
Load Types ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Support Reactions

A long-term load test performed for 470 days on two two-span prestressed concrete (PC) continuous box girders is reported in this paper. Load types were selected as the test variates, and structural responses such as support reactions, deflections, and concrete strains were monitored. Simultaneously, affiliated experiments such as material strength, creep, and shrinkage tests were conducted to investigate the time-dependent performances of the materials. Data obtained from these tests showed that deflections, strains, and support reactions develop rapidly in the beginning and stabilize afterward; the reactions of mid- and end-supports decline and rise over time, respectively. Time-dependent patterns of deflections and support reactions were analyzed on the basis of an effective modulus method, and a practical calculation method for long-term deflections considering reaction redistributions was proposed. The effects of the service environment on the performance of PC girders were evaluated through an incremental analysis method.

scholarly journals Dominance relationships and coalitionary aggression against conspecifics in female carrion crows

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedikt Holtmann ◽  
Julia Buskas ◽  
Matthew Steele ◽  
Kristaps Solokovskis ◽  
Jochen B. W. Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Social Interactions ◽  
Social Environment ◽  
Social Rank ◽  
Social Benefits ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
The Third ◽  
Dominance Relationships ◽  
Dominant Individual ◽  
The Individual

Abstract Cooperation is a prevailing feature of many animal systems. Coalitionary aggression, where a group of individuals engages in coordinated behaviour to the detriment of conspecific targets, is a form of cooperation involving complex social interactions. To date, evidence has been dominated by studies in humans and other primates with a clear bias towards studies of male-male coalitions. We here characterize coalitionary aggression behaviour in a group of female carrion crows consisting of recruitment, coordinated chase, and attack. The individual of highest social rank liaised with the second most dominant individual to engage in coordinated chase and attack of a lower ranked crow on several occasions. Despite active intervention by the third most highly ranked individual opposing the offenders, the attack finally resulted in the death of the victim. All individuals were unrelated, of the same sex, and naïve to the behaviour excluding kinship, reproduction, and social learning as possible drivers. Instead, the coalition may reflect a strategy of the dominant individual to secure long-term social benefits. Overall, the study provides evidence that members of the crow family engage in coordinated alliances directed against conspecifics as a possible means to manipulate their social environment.

Time-Dependent Changes in Excitability After One-Trial Conditioning of Hermissenda

1997 ◽  
Vol 78 (6) ◽  
pp. 3460-3464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Terry Crow ◽  
Vilma Siddiqi
Keyword(s):  
Time Dependent ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Type B ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Phototactic Behavior ◽  
Parallel Processes ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
A Site ◽  
Different Levels

Crow, Terry and Vilma Siddiqi. Time-dependent changes in excitability after one-trial conditioning of Hermissenda. J. Neurophysiol. 78: 3460–3464, 1997. The visual system of Hermissenda has been studied extensively as a site of cellular plasticity produced by classical conditioning. A one-trial conditioning procedure consisting of light paired with the application of serotonin (5-HT) to the exposed, but otherwise intact, nervous system produces suppression of phototactic behavior tested 24 h after conditioning. Short- and long-term enhancement (STE and LTE) of excitability in identified type B photoreceptors is a cellular correlate of one-trial conditioning. LTE can be expressed in the absence of STE suggesting that STE and LTE may be parallel processes. To examine the development of enhancement, we studied its time-dependent alterations after one-trial conditioning. Intracellular recordings from identified type B photoreceptors of independent groups collected at different times after conditioning revealed that enhanced excitability follows a biphasic pattern in its development. The analysis of spikes elicited by 2 and 30 s extrinsic current pulses at different levels of depolarization showed that enhancement reached a peak 3 h after conditioning. From its peak, excitability decreased toward baseline control levels 5–6 h after conditioning followed by an increase to a stable plateau at 16 to 24 h postconditioning. Excitability changes measured in cells from unpaired control groups showed maximal changes 1 h posttreatment that rapidly decremented within 2 h. The conditioned stimulus (CS) elicited significantly more spikes 24 h postconditioning for the conditioned group as compared with the unpaired control group. The analysis of the time-dependent development of enhancement may reveal the processes underlying different stages of memory for this associative experience.

scholarly journals A Regime View of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Response to Anthropogenic Forcing

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. 1291-1307 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Woollings ◽  
Abdel Hannachi ◽  
Brian Hoskins ◽  
Andrew Turner
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Anthropogenic Forcing ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Nao Index ◽  
Future Behavior ◽  
Real Change ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Abstract The distribution of the daily wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is significantly negatively skewed. Dynamical and statistical analyses both suggest that this skewness reflects the presence of two distinct regimes—referred to as “Greenland blocking” and “subpolar jet.” Changes in both the relative occurrence and in the structure of the regimes are shown to contribute to the long-term NAO trend over the ERA-40 period. This is contrasted with the simulation of the NAO in 100-yr control and doubled CO2 integrations of the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3). The model has clear deficiencies in its simulation of the NAO in the control run, so its predictions of future behavior must be treated with caution. However, the subpolar jet regime does become more dominant under anthropogenic forcing and, while this change is small it is clearly statistically significant and does represent a real change in the nature of NAO variability in the model.

Enhancing Science and Technology in the SADC Region: Roles of the Secretariat and Member States

2002 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 70-95
Author(s):  
Rubin Patterson ◽  
James Bozeman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
Final Section ◽  
Science And Technology ◽  
Foreign Affiliate ◽  
Member States ◽  
The Third ◽  
Economic Context ◽  
The World ◽  
The Status

AbstractIncreased economic integration throughout the world, the growing dominance of foreign affiliate production over international exports, the routinization of innovation, and amplified knowledge-intensiveness of FDI collectively characterize the new global economic environment in which SADC nations are attempting to develop and compete. This paper provides a detailed summary of the global economic context and one of its leading engines, namely, science and technology (S&T). Analysis of Africa's post-independence S&T travails and successes constitutes the second section of the paper. Various factors that have collectively arrested S&T growth are discussed. The third and largest section is the analysis of commonalities and particularities of S&T needs and activities by the SADC secretariat and member states. Focused analytical reports on the status of S&T development efforts in Botswana and Zimbabwe comprise the final section. Based on the contextual threats and opportunities discussed above, the paper concludes with two concrete recommendations: integrating and adopting the elements suggested in the paper for a long-term S&T development model, and pursuing state-sponsored or quasi-state-sponsored reverse engineering campaigns.

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