scholarly journals Use of the correlation between input variables in estimating the risk of feedlot finishing of steers and young steers

2014 ◽  
Vol 86 (2) ◽  
pp. 945-954 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAULO S. PACHECO ◽  
JOÃO RESTLE ◽  
LEONIR L. PASCOAL ◽  
FABIANO N. VAZ ◽  
RICARDO Z. VAZ ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Stochastic Dominance ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Latin Hypercube Sampling ◽  
Risk Estimate ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Random Input ◽  
Financial Indicator ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Diet Intake

The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of feedlot finishing of steers (22.8 months) and young steers (15.2 months), using or not a correlation between the random input variables (data collected from 2004 to 2010) in the simulation of the Net Present Value (NPV) financial indicator. The animals were fed a diet containing roughage:concentrate ratio of 60:40 for 34 and 143 days, respectively, until they had reached a predetermined slaughter weight of 430 kg. For the NPV simulation, Latin Hypercube sampling was used, with 2000 interactions. The stochastic dominance analysis, test of differences between pairs of curves of cumulative distributions and sensitivity analysis were carried out. The NPV simulation using the correlation resulted in the best option for risk estimate. The confinement of young steers was the alternative of investment most viable than confinement of steers (NPV ≥ 0 of 80.4 vs. 62.3% in the simulation with correlation, respectively). Sensitivity analysis determined the following items had the greatest impact on the estimate of NPV: prices of fat and thin cattle, initial and final weights, diet costs, minimum rate of attractiveness and diet intake.

scholarly journals An Analysis of the Effectiveness of Two Rainwater Harvesting Systems Located in Central Eastern Europe

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Stec ◽  
Martina Zeleňáková
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Practical Aspect ◽  
Financial Ratios ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Toilet Flushing ◽  
Harvesting Systems ◽  
The Impact

Decentralized water systems are perceived as solutions that not only save water, but also as a way to partially or completely become independent from centralized suppliers. Taking this into account, an analysis of the effectiveness of rainwater harvesting systems (RWHS) for toilet flushing in existing academic facilities located in Poland and in Slovakia was carried out. The tests took into account the different volumes of storage tanks collecting rainwater. On the basis of two financial ratios, namely Net Present Value and Discounted Payback Period, the profitability of these systems was also assessed. The research was extended by the sensitivity analysis, which allowed determination of the impact of changes in individual cost components on the financial effectiveness of the investments considered. The results obtained clearly showed that the implementation of RWHS in the dormitory in Rzeszów was unprofitable for all tank capacities tested, and the payback period significantly exceeded the period of 30 years accepted for the analysis. Completely different results were obtained for RWHS in a dormitory located in the city of Košice, for which the financial ratios NPV (Net Present Value) and DPP (Discounted Payback Period) were very favorable. It was also confirmed by the results of the sensitivity analysis. The use of rainwater for toilet flushing caused that it was possible to achieve water savings of an average of 29% and 18%, respectively, for facilities located in Slovakia and Poland. The results of the research have a practical aspect and can provide an indication for potential investors and managers of academic facilities, similar to those analyzed in the article. Taking into account that in many countries water and sewage rates are significantly higher than in Poland and Slovakia, the cost-effectiveness of using the analyzed installation options in these countries could be even higher.

scholarly journals Sensitivity Analysis of Decorative Plant Business in Kendari City (Case Study on Dahlia Ornamental Plant Business)

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Rabiatul Adawiah Gasnawati ◽  
Abdi Abdi ◽  
Awaluddin Hamzah
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Ornamental Plant ◽  
Production Costs ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Benefit Ratio

The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of ornamental plant business in Kendari City as a case study on dahlia ornamental plant business. This research was conducted in Kendari City which was determined purposively on the dahlia ornamental plant business. The research was conducted from July to November 2019. The analysis used in this study is an analysis of efficiency and income consisting of net present value (NPV) income benefit ratio (NBCR), internal rate of return (IRR), payback period (PBP). The results of the sensitivity analysis of ornamental plant businesses with increased production costs by 5% and selling prices decreased by 5%, the value of the NPV, NBCR, IRR and payback period shows a good value so that the ornamental plant business is feasible to be cultivated because it can return all investment costs used

scholarly journals Analisis Usaha Agroindustri Minuman Tradisional Kunyit Asam di Paon Jamu (Curcuma domestica Val. – Tamarindus indica L.)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Luh Putu Melia Dewi ◽  
Sri Mulyani ◽  
I Ketut Satriawan
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Tamarindus Indica ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Operational Costs ◽  
Business Analysis

Paon Jamu traditional beverage business is one of the traditional beverage businesses in the Tanjung Benoa area. Judging from the development of his business, Paon Jamu is one of the businesses that have just been established including many similar traditional beverage businesses. This study aims to determine the financial feasibility of the tamarind turmeric beverage business, determine the added value generated, determine the feasibility of a tamarind turmeric beverage business if there is an increase in operational costs and a decrease in revenue using a sensitivity analysis. Tamarind turmeric beverage business is feasible to run, the Net Present Value result is Rp. 6.144.470 for 300 ml packaging. Internal Rate of Return of 13% for 300 ml packaging and 14% indicates that the rate of return is greater than the specified bank interest rate. Payback Period for 2 years 5 months for 300 ml packaging. The B / C ratio is 1,42 for 300 ml packages. The added value of the business of turmeric acid is the added value obtained is Rp. 49.416 for a 300 ml package with a ratio of 47% The sensitivity analysis scenario shows that 300 ml package is sensitive to a 3 and 4% reduction in income in scenario II and III. Keywords: Tamarind turmeric, business analysis, Paon Jamu

Using Outsourced Logistics Services (4pl)

2013 ◽  
pp. 360-375
Author(s):  
Vasileios Giotopoulos ◽  
Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis ◽  
Vasileios Moustakis
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Legal System ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Legal Environment ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Organizational Models ◽  
Logistics Outsourcing ◽  
Logistics Services ◽  
Logistics Enterprises

The objective of this chapter is the study of the economical and legal environment in which logistics enterprises operate in Greece. Firstly, there is a presentation of logistics outsourcing and the existing 3PL and 4PL organizational models as well as an analysis of the economical and legal system which influences the operation of logistics ventures in Greece and a presentation of the funding possibilities according to Greek law. An economical sustainability study is being conducted according to the Net Present Value method (NPV), and two types of ventures are studied: an asset based venture, and a non asset based venture. At the end of this chapter, there is a sensitivity analysis with respect to the discount rate that is used in the NPV (Net Present Value) method. The results of this analysis showed that a change of the discount rate has significant consequences on the economics of the project.

scholarly journals Can Capital Injection Make Challenged Gold Projects in Ghana Economically Viable? – A Case Study

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 42-48
Author(s):  
D. Mireku-Gyimah ◽  
R. Gyebuni
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Operating Cost ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Internal Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Internal Rate ◽  
Economic Parameters

Damang Gold Mine (DGM) in Ghana uses open pit mining technology to mine its gold deposit. It has an estimated mineable gold reserve of about 32 Mt exploitable for 8 years. As the gold price kept falling from 2013 and operating cost kept rising, the mine down sized its operations. But the operations became challenging due to poor performance of ageing mining equipment and processing plant, and the need for a new tailings dam. As the gold price stabilises, it could be gainful to invest capital to resolve the challenges and increase production. This study aims at investigating whether DGM would be economically viable if the intended investment is made assuming the gold price falls to US$ 32.15/g. The study estimates the required capital and annual operating cost to be US$89.49 M and US$100.84 M respectively.  A cash flow analysis is carried out assuming no price escalation, discount rate of 20%, and applying the following investment laws of Ghana: royalty of 5% of gross revenue; straight line depreciation of capital expenditure over five years (20% per year); investment allowance of 5% in the first year only; loss carry forward; and corporate tax of 35%. The results give Net Present Value of US$82 723 720.28 and Internal Rate of Return of 41.13%, indicating profitability. Sensitivity analysis reveals that the project will continue to be profitable until the revenue falls below 24%, assuming all other economic parameters remain constant. The project will also continue to be profitable until the operating cost increases beyond 30%, assuming all other economic parameters remain constant. Risk analysis on the project indicates the project has 70% chances of success. DGM could invest the capital to mine its gold reserves because the mine will make profit provided cost is controlled and production level maintained to generate needed revenue. Keywords: Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return, Sensitivity Analysis, Risk Analysis

scholarly journals 1,2—Propanediol Production from Glycerol Derived from Biodiesel’s Production: Technical and Economic Study

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 5081
Author(s):  
Juan B. Restrepo ◽  
Carlos D. Paternina-Arboleda ◽  
Antonio J. Bula
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Reaction Scheme ◽  
Primary Objective ◽  
Raw Material ◽  
Biodiesel Production ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Economic Study ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Input Variables

For every nine tons of produced biodiesel, there is another ton of glycerol as a byproduct. Therefore, glycerol prices dropped significantly worldwide in recent years; the more significant biodiesel production is, the more glycerol exists as a byproduct. glycerol prices also impact the biodiesel manufacturing business, as it could be sold according to its refinement grade. The primary objective of this work was to evaluate the economic potential of the production of 1,2-propanediol derived from the biodiesel produced in Colombia. A plant to produce 1,2-propanediol via catalytic hydrogenation of glycerol in a trickle-bed reactor was designed. The plant comprised a reaction scheme where non-converted excess hydrogen was recycled, and the heat generated in the reactor was recovered. The reactor effluent was sent to a separation train where 98% m/m purity 1,2-propanediol was attained. Capital and operational costs were estimated from the process simulation. The net present value (NPV) and the modified internal return rate (MIRR) of the plant were used to assess the viability of the process. Their sensitivity to key input variables was evaluated to find the viability limits of the project. The economic potential of the 1,2-propanediol was calculated in USD 1.2/kg; for the base case, the NPV and the MIRR were USD 54.805 million and 22.56%, respectively, showing that, for moderate variations in products and raw material prices, the process is economically viable.

scholarly journals RISK CONSIDERATION IN THE INVESTMENT PLAN OF CREATING A VINEYARD

2019 ◽  
pp. 100-110
Author(s):  
JOZEF REPISKÝ
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Simulation Analysis ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Balance Model ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Risk Quantification

The paper is focused on creation and evaluation of the investment project of establishing vineyard with risk taken into consideration via a simulation model. The basis of this work was the creation of a multi period balance model and formation of different variants of the individual projects which differ in production volume and mean of financing. The model accepts to full extent initial decisions on the supposed yields, selling prices and the way of depreciation of vineyard and its fencing. In other parts of the model, the investor introduces only prices per unit of labour to services such as pre-agglomeration of land, vineyard plantation and its cultivation in different years, fencing and supporting construction and all other calculations are done automatically representing the intermediate results and model outputs. Part of the model covering the loan gives information on total initial costs of the projects including working capital and total capital costs. They are financed from equity, loans, and subsidies. The main evaluation criterion of the deterministic calculations was the net present value which takes into consideration the time factor and belongs among the dynamic methods. By means of sensitivity and simulation analysis is possible to identify an appropriate investment strategy under the risk conditions. The risk factors, which were identified by sensitivity analysis, are defined as random variables with certain probability distribution. Critical values of target criterion give information value which we can expect with willingness to tolerate given risk quantification. The spreadsheet model allows to simulate various financial investment and credit and depreciation procedures. The multi-period model allows for the assessment of individual investment intentions through the Net Present Value indicator and through the sensitivity and simulation analysis to identify the most appropriate investment strategy under risk conditions. The risk factors, which were identified by sensitivity analysis are defined as random variables with certain probability distribution in stochastic model. Critical values of target criterion give information which value can we expect with willingness to tolerate given risk quantification. The multi-period balance model can also be transformed into an optimization model by a suitable adjustment. Key words: investment decision making, net present value, risk analysis, modeling analysis, risk, uncertainty, viticulture, investment project.

scholarly journals ANALISIS INVESTASI PROYEK PENGADAAN CT-SCANNER TERHADAP PENDAPATAN PERUSAHAAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Indri Gustirani
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Ct Scan ◽  
Scenario Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Ct Scanner ◽  
Present Value

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kelayakan investasi CT-Scanner terhadap pendapatan perusahaan. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini yaitu penelitian deskriptif dengan pendekatan studi kasus yaitu dengan menganalisis  dan estimasi jumlah pasien yang akan menggunakan CT-Scanner dengan menggunakan Metode Eksponential Smoothing with Trend Adjustment; menganalisis jumlah pendapatan yang diterima perusahaan dan biaya yang ditanggung oleh perusahaan termasuk biaya penyusutan atas peralatan tersebut; menganalisis kelayakan investasi dengan menggunakan perhitungan atas Net Present Value NPV), Interest Rate of Return (IRR), Payback Period, dan Profitability Index (PI); dan menganalisis risiko investasi dengan menggunakan metode sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, dan break-even cashflow.. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa investasi CT Scan layak untuk dilaksanakan dengan menghasilkan pendapatan perusahaan sebesar Rp 3.106.732.785,- dan rumah sakit sebesar Rp 1.672.856.115, serta proyeksi arus kas sebesar Rp  1.724.082.518,- pada tahun ke-10.

scholarly journals Economic analysis of the risk of replacing corn grains (Zea mays) with pearl millet grains (Pennisetum glaucum) in the diet of feedlot cattle

2020 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Medeiros da Silva ◽  
Rodrigo Zaiden Taveira ◽  
João Restle ◽  
Edom de Avila Fabricio ◽  
Angelina Camera ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pearl Millet ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Pennisetum Glaucum ◽  
Rank Correlation ◽  
Feedlot Cattle ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Spearman’S Rank Correlation ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Corn Grains

ABSTRACT: The goal of the present study was to assess the economic viability relating to the risk of replacing corn with pearl millet in diets with 80% concentration for feedlot cattle confined for 89 days. Replacement levels were: 0, 33, 66, and 100%. The risk was estimated using Monte Carlo simulation, Spearman’s rank correlation test between input variables, stochastic dominance, and analysis of sensitivity. The expected average values ± standard deviation for net present value (R$/animal) were ± 71.74 ± 283.32, 91.23 ± 285.18, 196.05 ± 273.79, and 223.80 ± 267.96 for diets containing 0, 33, 66, and 100% of pearl millet, respectively. The probability of ≥0 net present value was 63.4, 66.1, 78.4, and 82.4%, respectively. The net present values were statistically different (P<0.05), and the higher levels dominated the lower values. The items that most influenced the net present values were, in descending order, prices of unfinished and finished cattle, initial and final weights, prices of concentrate and forage, concentrate and forage consumption. Based on the results of the simulation, diet of 100% pearl millet exhibited the best economic viability.

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