scholarly journals Revising Growth Theory in the Artificial Age: Putty and Clay Labor

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Puaschunder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Significant Determinant ◽  
Internet Connectivity ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Connectivity

The introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in our contemporary society imposes historically unique challenges for humankind.  The emerging autonomy of AI holds unique potentials of eternal life of robots, AI and algorithms alongside unprecedented economic superiority, data storage and computational advantages.  Yet to this day, it remains unclear what impact AI taking over the workforce will have on economic growth.  This paper therefore first establishes what AI is and provides a theoretical background on standard neoclassical and heterodox economics growth theories with particular attention to the Cambridge Capital Controversy’s argument to divide capital components into fluid, hence more flexible (e.g., petty cash, checking account), and more clay, hence more inflexible (e.g., factories and intransferable means of production), components.  The contemporary trend of slowbalisation is described, as the slowing down of conventional globalization of goods, services and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) flows; yet at the same time, we still see human migration and air travel as well as data transfer continuing to rise.  These market trends of conventional globalization slowing and rising AI-related industries are proposed as first market disruption in the wake of the large-scale entrance of AI into our contemporary economy.  Growth in the artificial age is then proposed to be measured based on two AI entrance proxies of Global Connectivity Index and The State of the Mobile Internet Connectivity 2018 Index, which is found to be highly significantly positively correlated with the total inflow of migrants and FDI inflow – serving as evidence that the still globalizing rising industries in the age of slowbalisation are connected to AI.  Both indices are positively correlated with GDP output in cross-sectional studies over the world.  In order to clarify if the found effect is a sign of industrialization, time series of worldwide data reveal that internet connectivity around the world is associated with lower economic growth from around 2000 on until 2017.  A regression plotting Internet Connectivity and GDP per capita as independent variables to explain the dependent variable GDP growth outlines that the effect for AI is a significant determinant of negative GDP growth prospects for the years from 2000 until 2017.  A panel regression plotting GDP per capita and internet connectivity from the year 2000 to explain economic growth consolidates the finding that AI-internet connectivity is a significant determinant of negative growth over time for 161 countries of the world.  Internet connectivity is associated with economic growth decline whereas GDP per capita has no significant relation with GDP growth.  To cross-validate both findings hold for two different global connectivity measurements.  The paper then discusses a theoretical argument of dividing labor components into fluid, hence more flexible (e.g., AI), and more clay, hence more inflexible (e.g., human labor), components.  The paper ends on a call for revising growth theories and integrating AI components into growth theory.  AI entrance into economic markets is modeled into the standard neoclassical growth theory by creating a novel index for representing growth in the artificial age comprised of GDP per capita and AI entrance measured by the proxy of Internet Access percent per country.  Maps reveal the parts of the world that feature high GDP per capita and AI-connectivity.  The discussion closes with a future outlook on the law and economics of AI entrance into our contemporary economies and society in order to aid a successful and humane introduction of AI into our world. 

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

Indo-Pacific Economic Architecture: An ASEAN Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 381-383
Author(s):  
Ronald Eberhard Tundang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
The Third ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The World ◽  
The Pacific Ocean ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Trade Growth ◽  
Global Economic Growth

For over five decades, countries in Southeast Asia and its surroundings in Asia, the Pacific Ocean, and Pacific Rim have enjoyed peace and stability, upon which economic growth and welfare have accumulated. The marvel of uninterrupted development has transformed them into a group of countries that are part of the engines of global economic growth. Over the period of 1967 until 2017, Southeast Asian region recorded growth in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita almost thirty-three times bigger, from USD 122 to USD 4,021. In 2016, the region represented 6.2 percent GDP of the world in 2016, almost doubled the share in 1967 at just 3.2 percent. The period also saw an immense trade growth from USD 9.7 billion to USD 2.2 trillion. Right now the region has become the third largest economy in Asia and the fifth largest in the world.

GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 406-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Korotayev ◽  
Stanislav Bilyuga ◽  
Alisa Shishkina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Given ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Purchasing Power Parities

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not characterized by a straightforward negative correlation; it rather has an inverted U-shape. The highest risks are typical for the countries with intermediate values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, economic growth predicts an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. This positive correlation is particularly strong ( r = .94, R2 = .88) and significant for the intensity of antigovernment demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20,000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPPs]). We suggest that it is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (a) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies antigovernment demonstrations; (b) in the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20,000, the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes; and, finally, (c) GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of antigovernment demonstrations.

Tests of a more comprehensive model of economic growth in lower middle-income countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a more comprehensive model of economic growth using a sample of 28 lower middle-income developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors modify the conventional neoclassical growth model to account for the impact of the increase in the number of people working relative to the total population and that of the increase in the value added per worker over time. The authors then extend this model by incorporating the role of trade, government consumption, and human capital in output growth. Findings Regression results show that over three quarters of cross-lower middle-income country variations in per capita GDP growth rate can be explained by per capita growth in the share of public expenditures on education in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of government consumption in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of imports in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of manufactured exports in the GDP (not of that of total exports in the GDP), and the growth of the working population relative to the total population. Practical implications Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in these countries identify policy fundamentals that are essential for economic growth. Originality/value To address the simultaneity bias, the authors develop a simultaneous equations model and are able to show that such model is more robust and helps explains cross-country variations in per capita GDP growth over the 2000-2014 period.

scholarly journals GREEN ECONOMY AND ACCESS TO FINANCE IN GEORGIA (GOING BEYOND THE COMMERCIAL BANKING SECTOR TO FINANCE BUSINESSES IN GEORGIA)

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (7) ◽  
pp. 87-95
Author(s):  
DAVID ASLANISHVILI
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Clean Energy ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita

This research will explore other possible financial vehicles that go beyond traditional sources of private capital offered by commercial banks. It will look at international experience and the opportunities to use public support, green bonds to raise green finance as well as the work of energy service companies (ESCOs) to finance green investments. We have offered our view of what should be done in fact (not in paper in Georgia as it has been in the past 15 years) to change the situation and end the negative and harmful monopoly of the commercial banks and the National Bank of Georgia and to have in place the two independent sources to attract and invest resources in Georgia. This will increase the capitalization of the country and is a proven way to eradicate the country›s lagging and accelerate economic growth. Why should we focus on this issue? 1. According to WHO›s latest data, over 7 million people die each year because of breathing air with solid particles, and one of its main pollutants is vehicles. (Cereceda Rafael, Cuddy Alice. 2018.....) 2. Georgia’s Capital - Tbilisi - is occupying the 3rd place in the light of air pollution, 3. Due to the critical situation, the public demand to live in a clean ecological environment, day by day increases. In our research the following Questions are discussed and overviewed: • Is it important to act on the issues of Georgia›s position on the global scale? • What unique components can be used to prolong the average life of people? • What investors do the country need for building ecoprojects and their realization? • What type of ecofriendly technologies can be developed for potential customers in Georgia? In that field we have studied the following: • The links between economic growth, green growth (e.g. clean energy), high living standards and capital markets; • Why the Commercial Banks are the main and the only source of finance for green (and not only) investments in Georgia; • Situation on capital markets of Georgia (stock and bond markets) - as an indicator of economic growth and an alternative source of financing; • Possible benefits of non-bank financing, including for clean energy projects and the SME sector (e.g. small hydro, energy efficiency); • The role of government in supporting capital market development; • The role of international community (donors, IFIs, international organization) to support Georgia’s efforts to develop capital markets Georgia – Recent level of development To illustrate the wide gap between the developed economy and the weak one, let us compare the current level of per capita GDP of Switzerland, Hungary, Poland to Georgian one (source: https://tradingeconomics.com/switzerland/gdpper-capita; https://tradingeconomics.com/poland/gdp-percapita; https://tradingeconomics.com/hungary/gdp-per-capita; https://tradingeconomics.com/georgia/gdp-per-capita); • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Switzerland was last recorded at 76667.44 US dollars in 2017. The GDP per Capita in Switzerland is equivalent to 607 percent of the world›s average. • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Hungary was last recorded at 15647.85 US dollars in 2017. The GDP per Capita in Hungary is equivalent to 124 percent of the world›s average. • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Poland was last recorded at 15751.23 US dollars in 2017. The GDP per Capita in Poland is equivalent to 125 percent of the world›s average. • The Gross Domestic Product per capita in Georgia was last recorded at 4290.17 US dollars in 2017).The GDP per Capita in Georgia is equivalent to 34 percent of the world›s average.

scholarly journals Changes of inward and outward FDI stocks in Poland and the stage of the investment development path

2019 ◽  
pp. 41-60
Author(s):  
Aneta Kosztowniak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Development Path ◽  
Per Capita

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes of inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI) stocks in Poland in the years 1994–2016 in the field of the theory of J. H. Dunning`s investment development path (IDP). The following research hypothesis was adopted: If a persistent reduction of net outward FDI stock (NOI) to 0 is accompanied by economic growth (GDP growth, GDP per capita, structural changes in the economy), then it will be possible to achieve stage 3 of the IDP.The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of NOI accompanying economic development in 1994–2016 were insufficient to confirm full advancement of IDP stage 3 in Poland. We do not observe a definite change in the NOI and economic development stage from stage 2 to 3. Nevertheless, we can support that some changes occur that prove that the economy is at the beginning of stage 3, as the following symptoms are observed: a drop in the levels of NOI, NOI per capita and an increase in the outward performance index (OPI). Considering that stages 1 and 2 continued nearly for 10 years each, the confirmation of stage 3 is likely after 2022. Then we will have empirical data for the period 2013–2022.

STATE REGULATION OF THE ECONOMY OF INDONESIA DURING ECONOMIC CRISES OF 1997-98 and 2008-09

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Krasnopyorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
State Regulation ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Per Capita

The article is analyzing the models of state regulation of the economy of Indonesia throughout the Asian financial economic crisis of 1997-98 and the World economic crisis of 2008-09 and the effects on the national economy of Indonesia. The statistics of economic development (GDP and GDP per capita and other social and economic indicators) of Indonesia are analyzed and several graphs and tables have been created for the scientific research purposes. According to the research data, it has been proved that Indonesia has been constantly improving its major economic indicators (like GDP per capita, especially in comparison to the world average level) showing 5-7% rate of economic growth, only with the exception of the period of the Asian financialeconomic crisis of 1997-98, when the country’s economy was hit hard by the crisis. Throughout the article the comparative analysis of successes and failures of different models of state regulation during the economic crises of 1997-98 and 2008-09 is given. The article provides a comparative table of the model for the management of the economy in Indonesia throughout the two crises periods. The experience of Indonesia indicates that the correct and responsible, effective macroeconomic policy of the government during the world economic crises has very important meaning for the national economy of the respective country. The experience of Indonesia in successful overcome and avoiding of the international crisis of 2008-09 – is interesting and useful for the governments, committees and ministries of economic development, as well as for economists in Ukraine and other countries of the world. Unfortunately, all the economic reforms that have been implemented in Ukraine over the last 30 years have not produced the desired result. In Ukraine, in contrast to Indonesia, no high levels of economic growth were observed during the recent 30 years. In the process of 1990s economic reforms in Ukraine, there was a sharp decline in production and a great portion of the working-age population was forced to leave the country in search of better-paid jobs abroad. On the other hand, through sound economic policies, Indonesia has been able to make significant strides in creating a modern, powerful economy throughout the recent 30-40 years. At the moment the GDP of Indonesia is the 7th largest in the world (behind Germany and Russia and before Brazil).

scholarly journals Economic impacts of a glacial period: a thought experiment to assess the disconnect between econometrics and climate sciences

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1073-1087
Author(s):  
Marie-Noëlle Woillez ◽  
Gaël Giraud ◽  
Antoine Godin
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Thought Experiment ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change raises growing concerns about its potential catastrophic impacts on both ecosystems and human societies. Yet, several studies on damage induced on the economy by unmitigated global warming have proposed a much less worrying picture of the future, with only a few points of decrease in the world gross domestic product (GDP) per capita by the end of the century, even for a global warming above 4 ∘C. We consider two different empirically estimated functions linking GDP growth or GDP level to temperature at the country level and apply them to a global cooling of 4 ∘C in 2100, corresponding to a return to glacial conditions. We show that the alleged impact on global average GDP per capita runs from −1.8 %, if temperature impacts GDP level, to +36 %, if the impact is rather on GDP growth. These results are then compared to the hypothetical environmental conditions faced by humanity, taking the Last Glacial Maximum as a reference. The modeled impacts on the world GDP appear strongly underestimated given the magnitude of climate and ecological changes recorded for that period. After discussing the weaknesses of the aggregated statistical approach to estimate economic damage, we conclude that, if these functions cannot reasonably be trusted for such a large cooling, they should not be considered to provide relevant information on potential damage in the case of a warming of similar magnitude, as projected in the case of unabated greenhouse gas emissions.

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