GDP Per Capita and Protest Activity: A Quantitative Reanalysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 406-440 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrey Korotayev ◽  
Stanislav Bilyuga ◽  
Alisa Shishkina
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Authoritarian Regimes ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Given ◽  
Protest Activity ◽  
Purchasing Power Parities

Our research suggests that the relation between GDP per capita and sociopolitical destabilization is not characterized by a straightforward negative correlation; it rather has an inverted U-shape. The highest risks are typical for the countries with intermediate values of GDP per capita, not the highest or lowest values. Thus, until a certain value of GDP per capita is reached, economic growth predicts an increase in the risks of sociopolitical destabilization. This positive correlation is particularly strong ( r = .94, R2 = .88) and significant for the intensity of antigovernment demonstrations. This correlation can be observed in a very wide interval (up to 20,000 of international 2014 dollars at purchasing power parities [PPPs]). We suggest that it is partially accounted for by the following regularities: (a) GDP growth in authoritarian regimes strengthens the pro-democracy movements, and, consequently, intensifies antigovernment demonstrations; (b) in the GDP per capita interval from the minimum to $20,000, the growth of GDP per capita correlates quite strongly with a declining proportion of authoritarian regimes and a growing proportion of intermediate and democratic regimes; and, finally, (c) GDP growth in the given diapason increases the level of education of the population, which, in turn, leads to a higher intensity of antigovernment demonstrations.

scholarly journals Examining GDP Growth and Its Volatility: An Episodic Approach

Entropy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 23 (7) ◽  
pp. 890
Author(s):  
Jakub Bartak ◽  
Łukasz Jabłoński ◽  
Agnieszka Jastrzębska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Per Capita

In this paper, we study economic growth and its volatility from an episodic perspective. We first demonstrate the ability of the genetic algorithm to detect shifts in the volatility and levels of a given time series. Having shown that it works well, we then use it to detect structural breaks that segment the GDP per capita time series into episodes characterized by different means and volatility of growth rates. We further investigate whether a volatile economy is likely to grow more slowly and analyze the determinants of high/low growth with high/low volatility patterns. The main results indicate a negative relationship between volatility and growth. Moreover, the results suggest that international trade simultaneously promotes growth and increases volatility, human capital promotes growth and stability, and financial development reduces volatility and negatively correlates with growth.

A Comparison of the Economic Growth of the Baltic States between the Two World Wars

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zenonas Norkus
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Measurement Units ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Baltic

AbstractThis paper contributes to cliometric research on the economic output of Finland, Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia between 1913 and 1938. For Finland, gross domestic product (GDP) values from Maddison project dataset are accepted. For Estonia, Arno Köörna’s and Jaak Valge’s estimates are endorsed with reservations for 1923–1924. According to an optimistic estimate, Lithuania’s GDP per capita was below all-Russian mean in 1913, but was not less than USSR level in 1938, while Gediminas Vaskela’s pessimistic estimate of the 1938 Lithuanian GDP implies its GDP growth underperformance. Using new sources, the first estimates of Latvia’s output for the 1913–1938 period in cross-country and cross-temporally comparable measurement units (1990 Geary Khamis international $) are substantiated. Under optimistic estimates of Lithuanian GDP growth, this country was on par with Finland in terms of annual growth rates, with Latvia following next and Estonia displaying the weakest growth performance.

scholarly journals The influence of demographic factors on the economic development of the Azerbaijan: the interconnection problem

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Nagiyev
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
18Th Century ◽  
Demographic Factors ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
World Population ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Demographic factors have sometimes occupied center-stage in the discussion of the sources of economic growth. In the 18th century, Thomas Malthus made the pessimistic forecast that GDP growth per capita would fall due to a continued rapid increase in world population. There is a straightforward accounting relationship when identifying the sources of economic growth: Growth Rate of GDP = Growth Rate of Population + Growth Rate of GDP per capita, where GDP per capita is simply GDP divided by population. This article examines the interconnection between economic development and the demographic policy of Azerbaijan. The article analyzes various approaches of the impact of demographic factors on the economic development of a country. The following demographic factors have been identified and described as significant for the economic development: fertility dynamics, mortality dynamics, population size and gender and age structure.

scholarly journals Does the post-socialist past determine the relationship between GDP per capita and education? Evidence from Europe

2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (4) ◽  
pp. 573-589
Author(s):  
Zsuzsanna Banász ◽  
Vivien Valéria Csányi
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Key Factors ◽  
Huge Amount ◽  
Enrolment Rate ◽  
Level Of Education ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Relationship

Education is one of the key factors of economic growth. Despite the huge amount of researches investigating the relationship between education and GDP as a proxy of well-being, to the best of our knowledge, none of these studies examined a group of post-socialist countries comparing with not-post-socialist countries. This paper aims to fill this gap. We examine the correlation between growth and education with panel data evidence for 18 post-socialist (PS) countries and 16 developed market economies (DME) over the 1990–2014 period. The goal of this paper is to test two hypotheses: (i) The relationship between GDP per capita and tertiary education’s enrolment rate is stronger in the post-socialist countries than in other countries. (ii) In the post-socialist countries, the relationship between GDP per capita and tertiary education’s enrolment rate is stronger than the relationship between GDP per capita and any other level of education. Correlation analyses confirmed both hypotheses. Our findings suggest that the patterns of relationship between GDP and measures of tertiary education are different for PS and DME countries and would be interesting to observe when and how the gap between the patterns disappears.

Tests of a more comprehensive model of economic growth in lower middle-income countries

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-58 ◽  
Author(s):  
Minh Quang Dao
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Comprehensive Model ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Per Capita

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically test a more comprehensive model of economic growth using a sample of 28 lower middle-income developing countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors modify the conventional neoclassical growth model to account for the impact of the increase in the number of people working relative to the total population and that of the increase in the value added per worker over time. The authors then extend this model by incorporating the role of trade, government consumption, and human capital in output growth. Findings Regression results show that over three quarters of cross-lower middle-income country variations in per capita GDP growth rate can be explained by per capita growth in the share of public expenditures on education in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of government consumption in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of imports in the GDP, per capita growth in the share of manufactured exports in the GDP (not of that of total exports in the GDP), and the growth of the working population relative to the total population. Practical implications Statistical results of such empirical examination will assist governments in these countries identify policy fundamentals that are essential for economic growth. Originality/value To address the simultaneity bias, the authors develop a simultaneous equations model and are able to show that such model is more robust and helps explains cross-country variations in per capita GDP growth over the 2000-2014 period.

scholarly journals The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Ethiopia

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-112
Author(s):  
Mohammed Seid Hussen ◽  
Kye Woo Lee
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Aid Effectiveness ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Domestic Investment ◽  
Per Capita Gdp ◽  
Democratic Regimes ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of foreign aid on investment and economic growth of Ethiopia for the period 1971-2010. The result indicates that foreign aid has a statistically significant positive impact on domestic investment, while aid’s positive impact on per capita GDP growth does not depend on any macroeconomic policy conditionality. Rather, aid effectiveness depends on the peculiar social, political and economic institutions of particular periods. Aid is effective during both socialist and democratic regimes. However, aid’s impact on growth was greater for socialist regimes.

scholarly journals Changes of inward and outward FDI stocks in Poland and the stage of the investment development path

2019 ◽  
pp. 41-60
Author(s):  
Aneta Kosztowniak
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Foreign Direct Investments ◽  
Outward Fdi ◽  
Development Path ◽  
Per Capita

The aim of the paper is to analyze changes of inward and outward foreign direct investments (FDI) stocks in Poland in the years 1994–2016 in the field of the theory of J. H. Dunning`s investment development path (IDP). The following research hypothesis was adopted: If a persistent reduction of net outward FDI stock (NOI) to 0 is accompanied by economic growth (GDP growth, GDP per capita, structural changes in the economy), then it will be possible to achieve stage 3 of the IDP.The results of empirical research indicate that the changes of NOI accompanying economic development in 1994–2016 were insufficient to confirm full advancement of IDP stage 3 in Poland. We do not observe a definite change in the NOI and economic development stage from stage 2 to 3. Nevertheless, we can support that some changes occur that prove that the economy is at the beginning of stage 3, as the following symptoms are observed: a drop in the levels of NOI, NOI per capita and an increase in the outward performance index (OPI). Considering that stages 1 and 2 continued nearly for 10 years each, the confirmation of stage 3 is likely after 2022. Then we will have empirical data for the period 2013–2022.

scholarly journals Revising Growth Theory in the Artificial Age: Putty and Clay Labor

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 65-107 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Puaschunder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mobile Internet ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Growth Theory ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Significant Determinant ◽  
Internet Connectivity ◽  
The World ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Global Connectivity

The introduction of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in our contemporary society imposes historically unique challenges for humankind.  The emerging autonomy of AI holds unique potentials of eternal life of robots, AI and algorithms alongside unprecedented economic superiority, data storage and computational advantages.  Yet to this day, it remains unclear what impact AI taking over the workforce will have on economic growth.  This paper therefore first establishes what AI is and provides a theoretical background on standard neoclassical and heterodox economics growth theories with particular attention to the Cambridge Capital Controversy’s argument to divide capital components into fluid, hence more flexible (e.g., petty cash, checking account), and more clay, hence more inflexible (e.g., factories and intransferable means of production), components.  The contemporary trend of slowbalisation is described, as the slowing down of conventional globalization of goods, services and Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) flows; yet at the same time, we still see human migration and air travel as well as data transfer continuing to rise.  These market trends of conventional globalization slowing and rising AI-related industries are proposed as first market disruption in the wake of the large-scale entrance of AI into our contemporary economy.  Growth in the artificial age is then proposed to be measured based on two AI entrance proxies of Global Connectivity Index and The State of the Mobile Internet Connectivity 2018 Index, which is found to be highly significantly positively correlated with the total inflow of migrants and FDI inflow – serving as evidence that the still globalizing rising industries in the age of slowbalisation are connected to AI.  Both indices are positively correlated with GDP output in cross-sectional studies over the world.  In order to clarify if the found effect is a sign of industrialization, time series of worldwide data reveal that internet connectivity around the world is associated with lower economic growth from around 2000 on until 2017.  A regression plotting Internet Connectivity and GDP per capita as independent variables to explain the dependent variable GDP growth outlines that the effect for AI is a significant determinant of negative GDP growth prospects for the years from 2000 until 2017.  A panel regression plotting GDP per capita and internet connectivity from the year 2000 to explain economic growth consolidates the finding that AI-internet connectivity is a significant determinant of negative growth over time for 161 countries of the world.  Internet connectivity is associated with economic growth decline whereas GDP per capita has no significant relation with GDP growth.  To cross-validate both findings hold for two different global connectivity measurements.  The paper then discusses a theoretical argument of dividing labor components into fluid, hence more flexible (e.g., AI), and more clay, hence more inflexible (e.g., human labor), components.  The paper ends on a call for revising growth theories and integrating AI components into growth theory.  AI entrance into economic markets is modeled into the standard neoclassical growth theory by creating a novel index for representing growth in the artificial age comprised of GDP per capita and AI entrance measured by the proxy of Internet Access percent per country.  Maps reveal the parts of the world that feature high GDP per capita and AI-connectivity.  The discussion closes with a future outlook on the law and economics of AI entrance into our contemporary economies and society in order to aid a successful and humane introduction of AI into our world. 

scholarly journals The Impact of Public Debt on Economic Growth in Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 91
Author(s):  
Iryna Kondrat ◽  
Olena Pozniakova ◽  
Oksana Chervinska
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
The State ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

<p><strong>Theoretical background:</strong> The growth in government borrowing, carried out in connection with the banks’ capitalisation, significantly increased the state budget expenditures aimed at servicing the capitalisation domestic public debt, which reinforces the general tendency regarding the exacerbation of the budget risk in the debt sphere in Ukraine. A weighty debt-creating factor was the budget deficit, which was covered by borrowing. Proceeding ahead of the rate of increase in debt volumes in comparison with gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates under the influence of internal and external destabilising factors contributed to the excess of the debt levels security indicators and increased the insolvency risk of the state. The increase of the obligations share denominated in foreign currency or linked to the exchange rate in the overall debt structure as an important indicator of the financial system’s vulnerability to exchange rate fluctuations creates additional threats to debt sustainability regarding the increasing currency risk and the national currency devaluation.</p><p><strong>Purpose of the article:</strong> The article is focused on studying the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt, its ratio to GDP, and an empirical analysis of the relationship between public debt (external and domestic) and economic growth in Ukraine.</p><p><strong>Research methods:</strong> To empirically test the relationship between public debt and economic growth in Ukraine over the 1992 to 2018 period, multiple regression models were conducted. A real GDP per capita was used as an indicator for economic growth and the debt-to-GDP ratio was used as an index of public debt. Research hypotheses were the following: H1: The public external debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation; H2: The public domestic debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita have a strong negative and statistically relevant correlation.</p><p><strong>Main findings:</strong> Examining the dynamics and structure of Ukraine’s public debt by borrowing market (external and domestic), it is concluded that there is no strong negative or positive statistically relevant correlation between the public debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP per capita for Ukraine. The impact of this factor is so insignificant that it encourages further research to verify that low GDP growth rate causes the increase in Ukraine’s public debt.</p>

US Economic Growth: Trends and Factors

2016 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 26-39
Author(s):  
V. Varnavskii
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
The United States ◽  
Gdp Per Capita ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Us ◽  
Per Capita

The article considers the main trends and factors of US economic growth. Economic and technological reasons for slowdown of US Gross Domestic Product (GDP), GDP per capita and productivity are discussed. The author focuses on the estimates of key macroeconomic indicators published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics and other government agencies for analyzing historical growth and identifying factors contributions. Also, the article discusses points of view on the potential factors for continued economic growth in the future, including the statistics and calculations of the American economists. It is shown that the United States is nowadays facing fundamental problems of productivity, not just a cyclical downturn. A number of disturbing tendencies in the US economy, such as negative trends in both labor productivity and multifactor productivity (MFP) emerged well before the economic and financial crises of 2008 (Great Recession). As the author note, the US has entered into a period of relatively low GDP growth rate in comparison with 1990 – early 2000s. A reduction also occurred in the growth rate of GDP per capita, labor productivity and other indicators. Special attention is addressed to the roles of the Information and Communication Technologies (ICT). Since mid-1990 the large-scale investments into the ICT provided a great portion of US economic growth and productivity. However, in the last 10 years the contribution of ICT to productivity growth noticeably reduced from its maximum value in 1995–2004. Nonetheless, it remains sizable and still contributes about one-fifth of the GDP growth and more than 40% of the growth in labor productivity. The author’s general conclusion is that, despite the existing problems in economic growth, United States remains the world’s most productive economy and the largest market for ICT goods and services. This is likely to continue encouraging the nation’s economic growth and productivity, although at a slower pace.

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