scholarly journals A Long-Term Forecasting Model of Electricity Consumption Volume on the Example of Ups of the Ural with the Help of Harmonic Analysis of a Time Series

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-85
Author(s):  
V.G. Mokhov ◽  
◽  
T.S. Demyanenko ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Harmonic Analysis ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

Linear Dynamic Fuzzy Granule Based Long-term Forecasting Model of Interval-Valued Time Series

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yadong Hao ◽  
Shurong Jiang ◽  
Fusheng Yu ◽  
Wenyi Zeng ◽  
Xiao Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Linear Dynamic ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
Interval Valued

Short, medium and long term forecasting of time series using the L-Co-R algorithm

2014 ◽  
Vol 128 ◽  
pp. 433-446 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Parras-Gutierrez ◽  
V.M. Rivas ◽  
M. Garcia-Arenas ◽  
M.J. del Jesus
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Long Term Forecasting

scholarly journals Econometric Model for Forecasting Electricity Demand of Industry and Construction Sectors in Vietnam to 2030

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. First
Author(s):  
Viết Cường Võ ◽  
Phuong Hoang Nguyen ◽  
Luan Le Duy Nguyen ◽  
Van-Hung Pham
Keyword(s):  
Power System ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Master Plan ◽  
Base Scenario ◽  
Leading Position ◽  
Long Term Forecasting ◽  
High Scenario

An accurate forecasting for long-term electricity demand makes a major role in the planning of the power system in any country. Vietnam is one of the most economically developing countries in the world, and its electricity demand has been increased dramatically high of about 15%/y for the last three decades. Contribution of industry and construction sectors in GDP has been increasing year by year, and are currently holding the leading position of largest consumers with more than 50% sharing in national electricity consumption proportion. How to estimate the electricity consumption of these sectors correctly makes a crucial contribution to the planning of the power system. This paper applies an econometric model with Cobb Douglas production function - a top-down method to forecast electricity demand of the industry and construction sectors in Vietnam to 2030. Four variables used are the value of the sectors in GDP, income per person, the proportion of electricity consumption of the sectors in total, and electric price. Forecasted results show that the proposed method has a quite low MAPE of 7.66% for long-term forecasting. Variable of electric price does not affect the demand. This is a very critical result of the study for authority governors in Vietnam. In the base scenario of the GDP and the income per person, the forecasted electricity demands of the sectors are 112,853 GWh, 172,691 GWh, and 242,027 GWh in 2020, 2025, 2030, respectively. In high scenario one, the demands are 115,947 GWh, 181,591 GWh, and 257,272 GWh, respectively. The above values in the high scenario are less than from 9.0% to 15.8 % of that of the based on in the Revised version of master plan N0. VII.

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